[Clielldub]

Normally, I wouldnt think much of outbreaks but once they start putting up pictures of entire hemispheres and track # of incident the situation starts to become a little bit on the eerie side. With all the world-wide traveling within hours and cross-contamination of people from Ancorage to Patagonia, San Francisco to Saigon a potent/contageous enough bug can and will spread in a matter of weeks, if not days.

By the time we realize what is going on by finding enough infections that a disease trend is noticed; then afterwards performing characterization of a microbial culprit [which is not a little stupid 2 minute blue-red litmus tests like TV programs and movies like to project ;it could take weeks for this step to happen] things could get very serious

Being proactive is the only way to go IMO.

[Franchise]

1. How many did not die?

There are no accurate figures because the flu quickly spread virtually everywhere on earth (even remote Pacific islands), and was somewhat masked by WWI casualties, which was the same demographic that targeted by the flu -young healthy adults.

The rapid spread of the disease in the US was facilitated by the coincidence that in early 1918, men were being mobilized for war.

What is known is that the worldwide infection rate was 50% of the population. The mortality rate of those infected was between 2% and 20% (typical mortality rate from influenza is 0.1%).

2. How many were under the age of 3 or over the age of 60? Half the deaths were in the 20-40 age group. There were very few deaths among children and the elderly.


3. How many were in rural, or medically unprepared/underserviced areas? About 600,000 people died in the US, more than in any of its wars.

One of the first significant outbreaks in the US was among sailors on a ship in Boston harbor in late August 1918. By October, 200 people in Boston were dead, and 850 people had died in New York - in one day.

During the week of November 1st, the PHS reported a total of 12,357 deaths in New York City. For the previous six weeks a total of 30,736 deaths were reported.
source: http://1918.pandemicflu.gov/your_state/new_york.htm

[Carfanate]

Can a even a deadly Swine Flu thread not get partisan on WNY?

[Psymoussy]

Air travel will no doubt take a big hit in the coming weeks.

[jimbomaxf]

Some good old swine flu vaccine propaganda... er - PSAs from the last outbreak in 1976.

[warrgazur]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/health/29flu.html

Fun quotes.
“As this moves forward, I fully expect that we will see deaths from this infection.”
“It is here and it is spreading"
"I really think we need to be prepared for the worsening of the situation"

and to cap it off, this quote (paraphrased in the article) from the press release of the WHO:
Given the widespread presence of the virus, the Director-General considered that containment of the outbreak is not feasible

For all our advancements... we're still just as vulnerable as a society to the mercies of genetic shuffling and recombination. Lets all hope we get lucky (this time).

[Twendypreency]

DHS Sets Guidelines For Possible Swine Flu Quarantines

Posted by Declan McCullagh | April 28, 2009 5:12 PM

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has sent a memo to some health care providers noting procedures to be followed if the swine flu outbreak eventually makes quarantines necessary.

DHS Assistant Secretary Bridger McGaw circulated the swine flu memo, which was obtained by CBSNews.com, on Monday night. It says: "The Department of Justice has established legal federal authorities pertaining to the implementation of a quarantine and enforcement. Under approval from HHS, the Surgeon General has the authority to issue quarantines."

McGaw appears to have been referring to the section of federal law that allows the Surgeon General to detain and quarantine Americans "reasonably believed to be infected" with a communicable disease. A Centers for Disease Control official said on Tuesday that swine flu deaths in the U.S. are likely.

Federal quarantine authority is limited to diseases listed in presidential executive orders; President Bush added "novel" forms of influenza with the potential to create pandemics in Executive Order 13375. Anyone violating a quarantine order can be punished by a $250,000 fine and a one-year prison term.

A Homeland Security spokesman on Tuesday did not have an immediate response to followup questions about the memo, which said "DHS is consulting closely with the CDC to determine appropriate public health measures."

The memo from McGaw, who is DHS' acting assistant secretary for the private sector, also said: "U.S. Customs and Coast Guard Officers assist in the enforcement of quarantine orders. Other DOJ law enforcement agencies including the U.S. Marshals, Federal Bureau of Investigation, and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives may also enforce quarantines. Military personnel are not authorized to engage in enforcement."

Quarantines are hardly new: their history stretches at least as far back as the Bible, which describes a seven-day period of isolation that priests must impose when an infection is apparent. The word literally means a period of 40 days, which cities along the Mediterranean shipping routes imposed during the plague of the 15th century, a legal authority reflected in English law and echoed in U.S. law.

Congress enacted the first federal quarantine law in 1796, which handed federal officials the authority to assist states in combating the yellow fever epidemic. In response to the 1918 influenza epidemic, states levied quarantines and imposed mask laws – with the District of Columbia restricting residents to their homes and San Francisco adopting the slogan "Wear a Mask and Save Your Life! A Mask is 99% Proof Against Influenza." Public health authorities quarantined the entire campus of Syracuse University for two-and-a-half weeks in October of that year.

Until recently, the last involuntary quarantine in the United States was in 1963. Then, in 2007, Andrew Speaker, an Atlanta lawyer, was quarantined inside a hospital in Denver on suspicion of having extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis. It turned out that the CDC was incorrect and Speaker had a milder form of the disease.

The CDC's error is one example of how quarantines can raise civil liberties issues. If a suspected swine flu patient is confined to a hospital isolation ward for a week or two, who pays for the bills? What if private businesses find their buildings requisitioned in an emergency? Or if hospital employees charged with enforcing the quarantine fail to show up for work?

McGaw's memo on Monday also said that the federal plan to respond to pandemic influenza was "in effect."

The Bush administration released the National Strategy For Pandemic Influenza in November 2005; it envisioned closer coordination among federal agencies, the stockpiling and distribution of vaccines and anti-viral drugs, and, if necessary, government-imposed "quarantines" and "limitations on gatherings."

A Defense Department planning document summarizing the military's contingency plan says the Pentagon is prepared to assist in "quarantining groups of people in order to minimize the spread of disease during an influenza pandemic" and aiding in "efforts to restore and maintain order."

[euylvaygdq]

The present Swine Flu strain is H1N1, similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu. The mortality rate, at about 2.5%, isn't exceptionally high, but tens of millions died because it was easily passed among humans, and spread quickly.

Hong Kong has had recent experience with with two much more lethal virus strains:

1. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Very contagious and a mortality rate of 17%. In a 2003 outbreak in Hong Kong, 299 of 1755 that were infected died. Thanks to an exceptional response by health organizations, the virus was contained, and a worldwide epidemic avoided.

2. Avian Flu (H5N1). Only 421 people contracted it, but 257 died (61% mortality rate). Fortunately so far, it hasn't mutated into a more contagious form.


As a result, Hong Hong is one of the best prepared cities to handle a flu epidemic.

From NYTimes The lessons learned from SARS did not go to waste in Hong Kong. While Mexico struggles to confirm cases of swine flu and sends samples to the United States, Hong Kong is already performing swift genetic tests on patient samples and will have laboratories doing so at six local hospitals by Thursday. Tens of thousands of doctors and nurses, including retirees and those with medical training who have moved to other occupations, are tracked on databases and ready to be mobilized.

Contingency plans are ready to keep public transport, electricity, food supplies, telecommunications and other vital services running even if large numbers of people fall ill. And at a time when many hospitals in the United States are already at full capacity and keep few extra beds in reserve, Hong Kong has 1,400 beds in respiratory isolation units, mostly built over the past six years for fear that bird flu or SARS would become a serious problem, and 15 times as many beds as the territory needs on an everyday basis.

For a population of seven million people, Hong Kong has stockpiled 20 million treatment courses of Tamiflu, a medicine to which the new swine flu virus has not yet developed resistance. Hong Kong also has Asia’s best-known flu specialists and extensive research labs that were expanded in response to fears of SARS or a long-feared pandemic of bird flu, which is caused by a different influenza virus from swine flu.

Government lawyers are also moving quickly, carrying out all the procedures on Monday to make swine flu a disease for which health professionals are required by law to notify the authorities of any suspected case. The Hong Kong government also has broad and detailed legal powers to quarantine possible cases and suspend a range of civil liberties in order to track down anyone who has been in contact with a carrier of a communicable disease; many other countries, including the United States, are still debating how to handle legal issues during a possible pandemic.

SARS “gave us a lot of valuable insights and practical experience in managing a large outbreak,” said Gabriel Matthew Leung, Hong Kong’s under secretary for food and health.

Hong Kong is unusually vulnerable to flu. World Health Organization officials describe Hong Kong and its labs as their sentry for flu in Asia, because the territory’s tests may uncover infected people arriving from other places that are either unequipped to identify influenza or have a habit of keeping medical problems a secret.

Still, in a measure of the terror that SARS has left, the territory’s stock market suffered some of the heaviest losses in Asia on Monday on swine flu fears. The Hang Seng Index fell 2.74 percent. Shares of Cathay Pacific, the dominant airline here, dropped 8 percent and shares of mainland China’s Air China fell 12.8 percent on fears that many passengers will stop flying.

[Optosypoeds]

I am glad that it did not hit Los Angeles,CA.

[Buyemae]

Oh but it has....
even with a possible death
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...4-foEpwMQqmCag
your gubernator has declared a state of emergency!

[tooratrack]

GET TO THE CHOPPAH!!!!!!



:d

[AbraroLib]

Alert level raised to #5 out of 6
- At Level 1, there aren’t any flu viruses circulating among animals that are known to have made people sick.
- Level 2 indicates that there is a virus spreading among wild or domesticated animals that has been reported to have made human beings sick.
- Level 3, where we were on Monday, means that while an animal-based flu has caused illness in people, such cases have been “sporadic,” that is, in WHO-parlance, unlikely to threaten an entire community.
- Raising the alert to Level 4, as the WHO did Tuesday, means that the flu is being spread from one person to another at a rate that does threaten a community.
- Level 5 means that such “community-level” outbreaks have been found in at least two countries in a region of the world, (which seems to be the case now).
- Level 6, the highest level of alert, means that such clusters and community level outbreaks have spread to at least two regions of the world. That constitutes a true pandemic.

[chuecafressds]

Only 7 swine flu deaths, not 152, says WHO
Vivienne Allan, from WHO's patient safety program, said the body had confirmed that worldwide there had been just seven deaths - all in Mexico - and 79 confirmed cases of the disease.

"Unfortunately that [150-plus deaths] is incorrect information and it does happen, but that's not information that's come from the World Health Organisation," Ms Allan told ABC Radio today.

"That figure is not a figure that's come from the World Health Organisation and, I repeat, the death toll is seven and they are all from Mexico."

Ms Allan said WHO had confirmed 40 cases of swine flu in the Americas, 26 in Mexico, six in Canada, two in Spain, two in Britain and three in New Zealand. [source] Meanwhile AP is still carrying the inflated number.

US swine flu cases near 100, spread to 11 states
The Geneva-based World Health Organization sounded its own ominous alarm, raising its alert level to one notch below a full-fledged global pandemic. Said WHO Director General Margaret Chan: "It really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic."

Dr. Richard Besser, acting chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in Atlanta there were confirmed cases in ten states, including 51 in New York, 16 in Texas and 14 in California. The CDC counted scattered cases in Kansas, Massachusetts , Michigan, Arizona, Indiana, Nevada and Ohio.

State officials in Maine said laboratory tests had confirmed three cases in that state, not yet included in the CDC count.

And the Pentagon said a Marine at the Twentynine Palms base in California had been confirmed to be ill with swine flu and was isolated, along with his roommate. A Marine spokesman at the Pentagon, Maj. David Nevers, said the sick Marine was doing well and his condition continued to improve. Nevers said about 30 others who had been in contact with the sick Marine would be held apart for five days as well as to see if they show symptoms.

[Axxflcaj]

Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild
Genetic data indicate this outbreak won't be as deadly as that of 1918, or even the average winter.
From LA Times
...scientists studying the virus are coming to the consensus that this hybrid strain of influenza -- at least in its current form -- isn't shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics.

In fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare.
...

Flu viruses are known to be notoriously unpredictable, and this strain could mutate at any point -- becoming either more benign or dangerously severe. But mounting preliminary evidence from genetics labs, epidemiology models and simple mathematics suggests that the worst-case scenarios are likely to be avoided in the current outbreak.
...

"There are certain characteristics, molecular signatures, which this virus lacks," said Peter Palese, a microbiologist and influenza expert at Mt. Sinai Medical Center in New York. In particular, the swine flu lacks an amino acid that appears to increase the number of virus particles in the lungs and make the disease more deadly.
...

Though scientists have begun to relax about the initial toll, they're considerably less comfortable when taking into account the fall flu season. They remain haunted by the experience of 1918, when the relatively mild first wave of flu was followed several months later by a more aggressive wave.

The longer the virus survives, the more chances it has to mutate into a deadlier form.

"If this virus keep going through our summer," Palese said, "I would be very concerned."

[asharbiq]

WHO raises its tally of confirmed swine flu cases to 236 worldwide

Associated Press
Last update: April 30, 2009 - 10:18 AM

GENEVA - The World Health Organization has increased its tally of confirmed swine flu cases around the world to 236 from 148.

The global body says most of the new confirmed cases came from Mexico.

WHO's flu chief Keiji Fukuda said Thursday the number of confirmed cases in Mexico has increased to 97 from 26, including 7 deaths.

WHO's tally of confirmed cases has lagged behind those that individual countries report because it has to wait for formal notification from the affected nation.

*****

Not even a thousand sick people worldwide and all this hysteria? Absurd.

More people are probably moving to tent cities.

[Allorneadesee]

Mexicans turn to humor,
creativity to endure flu


A man wears a decorated protective mask as he talks on
his cell phone in downtown Mexico City, Monday, April 27, 2009.
A fatal strain of swine flu has been detected in Mexico while the
virus has been confirmed or suspected in at least a half-dozen
other countries.
(AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo)


By MARK STEVENSON, Associated Press Writer Mark Stevenson, Associated Press Writer Fri May 1, 2:18 pm ET

MEXICO CITY – Televisa is cutting all "nonessential" kisses from its soap operas. A song called the "Influenza Cumbia" is climbing the charts. Cringe-worthy swine flu jokes are spreading faster than the illness ever could.

As Mexicans lock themselves inside in fear of the virus, they can't help but have a little fun with it as well.

The surgical masks that Mexicans have donned by the millions have become canvases for creativity, with some adorning their protective coverings with painted-on monkey mouths, outsized mustaches or "kissy lips." Newspapers offer smiley cutouts for people to paste to their masks, and some drivers have fashioned masks for their cars.

Dog lovers walk the streets of Mexico City with matching masks for their pooches, though doctors have yet to confirm that chihuahua-to-chihuahua transmission is a major public health threat.

Mexico's ebullient, spontaneous culture is still trying to adjust to the new anti-flu campaign, in which kissing, hugging, handshakes, eating on the street and standing in crowded places — all part of daily life in this city of 20 million — are now discouraged.

There might not be much traffic on Mexico City's streets, but gallows humor about what some call "The Aporkalypse" has been circulating around the metropolis.

"Did you hear that Mexico has become a world power?" goes one joke. "When it sneezes, the whole world gets the flu."

Mexico has decreed an almost total nationwide shutdown for the next five days, creating a particular challenge for parents. They need to keep their little ones from going stir crazy, while also making sure they heed the government's public safety instructions.

But as any parent will tell you, there is always a way.

Regina Martinez, 2, wouldn't wear a mask, so her mother, Jane, got creative. On Thursday, Regina pranced down a Mexico City street, her mask decorated with embroidered hearts.

"I made it for her because she didn't want to wear it, so I made her a special one," Jane Martinez said.

"I'm Tinkerbell," Regina chimed in, speaking shyly through the mask.

With no place to go, television has become one of the only available distractions. But even on the small screen, the disease has made its mark on that most Mexican form of entertainment: the telenovela.

Nothing defines the formulaic soap operas more than overly dramatic kisses. But Televisa, the world's biggest producer of the soaps, has decreed smooching will be reduced to a minimum in accordance with government guidelines to avoid close contact.

"When the script of a telenovela requires a kiss, the kiss will be give in accordance with the guidelines so as not to expose the actors to any risk," a Televisa spokesman said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.

He played coy on exactly how the new "safe kisses" would be carried out — air kisses? cheek kisses? — leaving observers to speculate.

"Until this thing is over, they will have to give telepathic kisses," joked author and cultural critic Carlos Monsivais.

Mexico's music culture has also embraced a lighthearted approach to the epidemic. The band Agrupacion Carino came out with the song "Influenza Cumbia" just two days after the health alert was issued. The lyrics are not the most sophisticated, with references to Superman and Indiana Jones.

"It's better to commit suicide with tacos," the singer croons to a bouncy synthesizer. "They say it's the perfect flu. They don't know Mexico City folks live in the smog."

And like swine flu, dark humor has spread beyond Mexico's borders.

A U.S. company has rolled out T-shirts featuring a pig-shaped Mexican flag. "I went to Mexico and all I got was swine flu," it reads.

And of course the Internet is alive with dark, swine-flu fun. In a game called "SwineFighter," players blast viral-looking piggies with a hypodermic needle.

And what global catastrophe would be complete without its own Facebook page?

Actually, "Swine Flu" has several pages on the popular social networking site. The most popular — set up April 26 with a profile picture of a cute white pig — has accumulated more than 20,000 fans.

The page's creator, who identifies himself only as John, boasts on the page: "There's more people infected on Facebook than in real life."

___

Associated Press writers Paul Haven and David Koop contributed to this story.

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press.

[TeftyJokip]

[i32I7qyH]

Oh boy, you made me laugh. That is priceless.

[SodeSceriobia]

Latest little excerp from CNN this morning had a few tidbits on there:

1. That the flu strain originated in the States (Hooray!)
2. That many of the reported cases in Mexico were not the Swine Flu, nor were the deaths.
3. The strain they have been able to isolate and examine does not have some of the RNA sequences found in the more virulent strains of the flu.


Now she wasn't saying that we should all go out and kiss a pig (as the picture shows), but that sometimes a "pandemic" just means it spread over a wide area, not that it is truly threatening a "Night of the Dead" type Zombie Pathogen "Will Smith where are you!!?!" disease.

[Karensmith]

Swine flu
Declaring a pandemic
Jun 11th 2009
From Economist.com

The world is suffering from the first flu pandemic in 40 years

THE World Health Organisation is poised to raise the threat level for swine flu to pandemic status on Thursday June 11th, the highest possible. This would be the first influenza pandemic since 1968, when Hong Kong flu killed 1m people. Almost 28,000 cases of swine flu and 141 deaths have been confirmed in 74 countries since the A(H1N1) virus was first identified in Mexico in late March. In Australia alone, the number of people infected has jumped from around 500 to 1,200 in one week. However, in a new paper published in Nature on Thursday, researchers suggest that the strain had probably been in existence for months before it was isolated, highlighting the need for good surveillance.