[gunhijala]

August 30, 2009

Will Japanese Power Shift
Change U.S. Relations?

by Corey Flintoff

The party that guided postwar Japan through impressive prosperity and then into persistent economic stagnation lost parliamentary elections Sunday in a vote that could signal significant changes in U.S.-Japan relations.

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, which for a half-century enjoyed near total political domination, has helped define the U.S. relationship by providing bases for American troops and strong ties between U.S. and Japanese markets.

The Democratic Party of Japan, won in a landslide Sunday, campaigned on a promise to create a foreign policy that is more integrated with its East Asian neighbors and more independent from the United States.

While the strong U.S.-Japan relationship is not fundamentally threatened, a victory for the DPJ presents a different stance from the more conservative LPD, which has generally supported U.S. political and economic goals around the world.

The Democratic Party leader, Yukio Hatoyama, signaled some of his party's planned changes in international economic policy in a commentary Thursday in The New York Times. Hatoyama denounced what he called "market fundamentalism in a U.S.-led movement that is more usually called globalization."

Hatoyama argued that globalization ignores human dignity, and said his administration would work on people-oriented policies that "take greater account of nature and the environment, that rebuild welfare and medical systems, that provide better education and child-rearing support, and that address wealth disparities."

Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, says Hatoyama's article should serve as a wake-up call to the Obama administration to be ready for a new Japanese approach that could show itself as early as the G-20 economic summit in Pittsburgh in late September.

Leaders from the world's major industrial countries will use the meeting to discuss the global financial crisis. Japan may not be as willing to go along with solutions that the new ruling party regards as promoting unrestrained, American-style capitalism.

Smith says a big victory by the DPJ in the 480-seat lower house of parliament means that the party could have a relatively free hand in implementing its policy goals.

"Three-hundred-plus seats means we'll have a DPJ government for at least the next three to four years," Smith says.

But domestic issues, not foreign policy, would likely dominate the agenda of the new government in the first few months, some analysts say.

The party campaigned on promises to spend heavily on domestic items such as family services, education and income support for farmers at a time when the country already faces a massive deficit.

"I don't see any big changes in foreign policy right away," says Nicholas Szechenyi, a Japan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Dispute Over Military Bases

Smith says a DPJ victory could also lead to changes in Japanese security policy, including the status-of-forces agreement that lays out how U.S. military forces can operate on Japanese soil. Japan hosts about 47,000 U.S. troops.

One potential dispute centers on how much Japan should pay of the cost of relocating a U.S. Marine base from Okinawa to Guam, a move that is supposed to be completed by 2014. U.S. bases in Okinawa have been a source of controversy for years because of disputes over land and a series of violent crimes committed by U.S. troops.

Under an agreement in 2006, Japan would pick up more than $6 billion of the estimated $10 billion cost of the relocation, mainly for building new housing for the Marines in Guam. DPJ leaders have said that is too much.

In his New York Times opinion piece, Hatoyama stressed that he wants Japan to take a more integrated role in East Asian affairs and align more closely with China and South Korea. But he added that Japan's alliance with the U.S. would "continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy."

How Much Can The DPJ Deliver?

Even with a decisive win Sunday, it remains to be seen whether Hatoyama can bring the kind of change his party is promising. The 62-year-old Stanford-educated engineer has a reputation for being wooden and lacking charisma .

The DPJ has promised to reduce the power of Japan's entrenched bureaucracy and restore more policymaking power to elected politicians, a task that Smith says won't be easy, given Japan's parliamentary system.

The Liberal Democratic Party was formed in the mid-1950s and has ruled uninterrupted except for a defeat in 1993. Then, it returned to power after less than a year.

"People don't come in and out of the bureaucracy the way political appointees do in the U.S.," Smith says. "As an institution, that means the bureaucracy is stronger and more elite, and it has been tightly wedded to the LDP."

Szechenyi says Hatoyama would like to centralize power in the prime minister's office, but that could be a delicate balancing act, "because to a certain extent, the DPJ is going to be dependent on the bureaucracy to help it function."

A bigger challenge is that the DPJ is a fractious party, composed of a spectrum of politicians ranging from socialists to disgruntled former members of the LDP. "Some people in the DPJ have been suggesting that the U.S.-Japanese relationship won't change at all, and then you've got Hatoyama writing that op-ed," Szechenyi says.

"I think the No. 1 priority for a Hatoyama government is just going to be getting used to governing," Szechenyi says. "It's going to be a very quick transition from campaigning to being in charge."

Copyright 2009 NPR





August 27, 2009

Op-Ed Contributor

A New Path for Japan

By YUKIO HATOYAMA

TOKYO — In the post-Cold War period, Japan has been continually buffeted by the winds of market fundamentalism in a U.S.-led movement that is more usually called globalization. In the fundamentalist pursuit of capitalism people are treated not as an end but as a means. Consequently, human dignity is lost.

How can we put an end to unrestrained market fundamentalism and financial capitalism, that are void of morals or moderation, in order to protect the finances and livelihoods of our citizens? That is the issue we are now facing.

In these times, we must return to the idea of fraternity — as in the French slogan “liberté, égalité, fraternité” — as a force for moderating the danger inherent within freedom.

Fraternity as I mean it can be described as a principle that aims to adjust to the excesses of the current globalized brand of capitalism and accommodate the local economic practices that have been fostered through our traditions.

The recent economic crisis resulted from a way of thinking based on the idea that American-style free-market economics represents a universal and ideal economic order, and that all countries should modify the traditions and regulations governing their economies in line with global (or rather American) standards.

In Japan, opinion was divided on how far the trend toward globalization should go. Some advocated the active embrace of globalism and leaving everything up to the dictates of the market. Others favored a more reticent approach, believing that efforts should be made to expand the social safety net and protect our traditional economic activities. Since the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006), the Liberal Democratic Party has stressed the former, while we in the Democratic Party of Japan have tended toward the latter position.

The economic order in any country is built up over long years and reflects the influence of traditions, habits and national lifestyles. But globalism has progressed without any regard for non-economic values, or for environmental issues or problems of resource restriction.

If we look back on the changes in Japanese society since the end of the Cold War, I believe it is no exaggeration to say that the global economy has damaged traditional economic activities and destroyed local communities.

In terms of market theory, people are simply personnel expenses. But in the real world people support the fabric of the local community and are the physical embodiment of its lifestyle, traditions and culture. An individual gains respect as a person by acquiring a job and a role within the local community and being able to maintain his family’s livelihood.

Under the principle of fraternity, we would not implement policies that leave areas relating to human lives and safety — such as agriculture, the environment and medicine — to the mercy of globalism.

Our responsibility as politicians is to refocus our attention on those non-economic values that have been thrown aside by the march of globalism. We must work on policies that regenerate the ties that bring people together, that take greater account of nature and the environment, that rebuild welfare and medical systems, that provide better education and child-rearing support, and that address wealth disparities.

Another national goal that emerges from the concept of fraternity is the creation of an East Asian community. Of course, the Japan-U.S. security pact will continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy.

But at the same time, we must not forget our identity as a nation located in Asia. I believe that the East Asian region, which is showing increasing vitality, must be recognized as Japan’s basic sphere of being. So we must continue to build frameworks for stable economic cooperation and security across the region.

The financial crisis has suggested to many that the era of U.S. unilateralism may come to an end. It has also raised doubts about the permanence of the dollar as the key global currency.

I also feel that as a result of the failure of the Iraq war and the financial crisis, the era of U.S.-led globalism is coming to an end and that we are moving toward an era of multipolarity. But at present no one country is ready to replace the United States as the dominant country. Nor is there a currency ready to replace the dollar as the world’s key currency. Although the influence of the U.S. is declining, it will remain the world’s leading military and economic power for the next two to three decades.

Current developments show clearly that China will become one of the world’s leading economic nations while also continuing to expand its military power. The size of China’s economy will surpass that of Japan in the not-too-distant future.

How should Japan maintain its political and economic independence and protect its national interest when caught between the United States, which is fighting to retain its position as the world’s dominant power, and China, which is seeking ways to become dominant?

This is a question of concern not only to Japan but also to the small and medium-sized nations in Asia. They want the military power of the U.S. to function effectively for the stability of the region but want to restrain U.S. political and economic excesses. They also want to reduce the military threat posed by our neighbor China while ensuring that China’s expanding economy develops in an orderly fashion. These are major factors accelerating regional integration.

Today, as the supranational political and economic philosophies of Marxism and globalism have, for better or for worse, stagnated, nationalism is once again starting to have a major influence in various countries.

As we seek to build new structures for international cooperation, we must overcome excessive nationalism and go down a path toward rule-based economic cooperation and security.

Unlike Europe, the countries of this region differ in size, development stage and political system, so economic integration cannot be achieved over the short term. However, we should nonetheless aspire to move toward regional currency integration as a natural extension of the rapid economic growth begun by Japan, followed by South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, and then achieved by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China. We must spare no effort to build the permanent security frameworks essential to underpinning currency integration.

Establishing a common Asian currency will likely take more than 10 years. For such a single currency to bring about political integration will surely take longer still.

ASEAN, Japan, China (including Hong Kong), South Korea and Taiwan now account for one quarter of the world’s gross domestic product. The economic power of the East Asian region and the interdependent relationships within the region have grown wider and deeper. So the structures required for the formation of a regional economic bloc are already in place.

On the other hand, due to historical and cultural conflicts as well as conflicting national security interests, we must recognize that there are numerous difficult political issues. The problems of increased militarization and territorial disputes cannot be resolved by bilateral negotiations between, for example, Japan and South Korea, or Japan and China. The more these problems are discussed bilaterally, the greater the risk that emotions become inflamed and nationalism intensified.

Therefore, I would suggest, somewhat paradoxically, that the issues that stand in the way of regional integration can only be truly resolved by moving toward greater integration. The experience of the E.U. shows us how regional integration can defuse territorial disputes.

I believe that regional integration and collective security is the path we should follow toward realizing the principles of pacifism and multilateral cooperation advocated by the Japanese Constitution. It is also the appropriate path for protecting Japan’s political and economic independence and pursuing our interests in our position between the United States and China.

Let me conclude by quoting the words of Count Coudenhove-Kalergi, founder of the first popular movement for a united Europe, written 85 years ago in “Pan-Europa” (my grandfather, Ichiro Hatoyama, translated his book, “The Totalitarian State Against Man,” into Japanese): “All great historical ideas started as a utopian dream and ended with reality. Whether a particular idea remains as a utopian dream or becomes a reality depends on the number of people who believe in the ideal and their ability to act upon it.”

Yukio Hatoyama heads the Democratic Party of Japan, and would become prime minister should the party win in Sunday’s elections. A longer version of this article appears in the September issue of the monthly Japanese journal Voice.

Global Viewpoint/Tribune Media Services

Copyright 2009