[Teareerah]

It is the 1936 Berlin games all over again.

Simultaneously you could see history repeating itself and history being made for the first time. The torch was passed from one country to another at that ceremony, and the torch was labeled "#1 Nation." After the 1936 games, if you had taken a global poll to name the world's most powerful nation, the answer would have come back: "Germany!"

After watching the opening ceremonies can anyone really wonder if the Chinese have the means and the will to run the world?

Try to imagine Americans putting on that show with the cooperation and interaction of thousands of performers -- not to mention those behind the scenes.

Collective Purpose and Objective clearly laid out and achieved.

Fasten your seatbelts, kids ...

It's gonna be a bumpy century.

[IACJdKfU]

Co-operation? Haha.

... Co-operation according to whom - that is the question.

Point taken -- plus the darned extravaganza cost in the neighborhood of $300 Million to put on .

That buys a lot of cooperation from The People.

But most likely if & when 1 Million or so Citizens of The People's Republic decide to act cooperatively against the powers that be then the world will see an ugly and bloody day.

Sadly, to some 1 Million of The People is but a drop in the bucket in a nation of 1.5 Billion, and would probably not be enough of a force to come against a military consisting of 7.5 Million.

We can hope for another Tianamen type situation, where the military seemingly backed down when The People rose up. But China is now on the move and many in charge won't want to change directions.

And don't forget that a previous Chairman of The People found that 15 - 30 Million + could be removed at the drop of a plow -- and still the Republic could crawl towards the future and survive.

[Gymnfacymoota]

... the message of the show: "we're number one, we're unified and monolithic, and we can do anything.

In time, we will bury you."

... the leader of the newly-minted #2 had to attend his country's de-coronation.

Everybody's afraid of The Dragon. Have been since Day One. That flame-breathing stuff is no joke.

And The Bear is wide awake and roaring again, too.

Together -- or apart -- they could decimate a less clever bunch of folks.

[Karensmith]

Good points but I woudnt worry about it too much.

There are more likely to be intranational problems for China that would keep it occupied. The present views of strategic thinkers are that some or all of the states with the 53 ethnic groups will eventually fragment and seek independence. They would want it now if it werent for an iron fist from the central government.

The second problem would likely be across a border with India, or the Russian Federation. It would be unlikely to go nuclear because if it did, that would be the end of the CCP, something they obviously dont want.

China has strong arms but short legs. In any conflict where they manage to get for example, a million conscripts 100 or 200 miles into Siberia or Nepal/India, these countries would lawfully use nukes on their own soil to destroy Chinese columns. They would also be able to do the same with superior conventional weapons, such as the Soviet/CIS made strategic bombers like the Tu-95 or the Tu-160.

The PLAAF is in a shambles. Apart from developing the Israeli jets they have bought, they have second rate (sold as dumbed down versions) Soviet jets, dont have the spare parts, and dont have the tradition necessary to take the fight to the air like the Russians or even the Indians who can operate in all weather, at night, perform a mission and not get lost over any territory. A typical PLAAF pilot who tried that over Taiwan would have problems navigating home, in daylight and good weather. You can have the weapons but you need a tradition.

The reality is that in the unlikely event that we were to have problems with the CCP, the US, with Japan or Australia could send 2 Carrier Battle Groups to the west Pacific and with just those forces, shoot every PLAAF jet out of the sky in 5 days.

The PLAN (Navy) isnt even really blue water and couldnt take the fight to the sea. In any event, superior satellite and naval/air recon would mean that the PLAN would be denied access to the CVBGs and have problems surviving.

Think about this, in 79 and 84 when the PLA invaded Vietnam, the NVA embarrassed them. The PLA suffered 40%+ casualties in the first month just to capture three regional cities in North Vietnam. You might think that things have improved for the PLA but they havent - in todays world there is even a less chance that the average Chinese citizen would accept those kinds of casualties.

In 69(?) when the PLA overran a Soviet border outpost and mutilated its garrison, the Soviets turned the Chinese side of the border into something resembling the surface of the moon.

Strategic bombers, just like in WWII, win the day. And when we and other countries let the Chinese build heavy jet engines, the knowledge and process are heavily supervised and all equipment (like 4 and 5 axis precision lathes) lent and not sold. And even if someone stole it and started trying to make a B-52 - well good luck. The B-29 cost more to develop than the whole Manhattan project by an industry that had already produced the B-24 and B-17 and had a tradition of turning out the worlds best strategic bombers.

The Chinese wouldnt make it 200 kms into Siberia before running out of food or munitions. The roads are bad in China to get to the border and over the border, the rail infrastructure is different, and the bombers would decimate all communications and the columns themselves. Same in India. Beijing is only a few hours away for the Tu-160s (which are 2000 kmph jets with a full belly).

Chance of getting to the Urals - 0%

Chance of getting over the Urals - 0%

Chance of getting to Moscow - 0%

Chance of an order to attack RF/India/Taiwan being the last act of the CCP - 100%

Nuff said.

PS I used to be a defense analyst in another life, apparently.

[YpciJQdo]

BTW what I said in that last post has nothing to do with the Olympics, just so you know, but it was a direct comment on the way the thread was going. Should we start another thread about like "When Diplomacy Isnt Enough"?