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Old 10-19-2005, 02:56 AM   #1
Evdokia

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Oct 2005
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Default $VBET$ Buffalo Bills vs. Oakland Raiders
Buffalo (3-3, 0-2 away) at Oakland (1-4, 1-2 home)

Why To Watch
The Bills are tied for first place in the AFC East and travel to the West Coast to play the disappointing Raiders. Oakland may be without its biggest weapon -- WR Randy Moss, who was injured last week and could be a game-time decision. But always beware a desperate team. The Raiders are a better team than their record indicates, so look for the Bills to have their hands full against a team whose season is slipping away. The Raiders' defense must start fast, contain RB Willis McGahee and stop shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and critical mistakes. LaMont Jordan's one 100-yard game came in the Raiders' only victory, so the Raiders need to be patient and pound the ball. It's no secret now that Kelly Holcomb is the Bills' starting quarterback, so look for the Bills to rely on a heavy dose of running the ball to set up the short controlled passing attack. The Bills need to start fast, control the clock and maintain good field position. Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray must find a way for the Bills to stop the run and the focus this week will be on containing Jordan.


When the Bills have the ball
Rushing: Head coach Mike Mularkey and his offensive staff will continue to pound the ball with RB Willis McGahee against a Raiders run defense that is ranked 22nd in the NFL against the run, giving up an average of 117.4 yards per game. After a 31-carry day a week ago against the Miami, McGahee continued to earn his pay with 29 carries against the Jets for a career-best 149 yards and a TD, all against the NFL's No. 8 defense. The Bills controlled the clock for a season-best 38:35 last week. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will again gear his defensive schemes toward stopping running back McGahee and the Buffalo rushing attack. FB Daimon Shelton continues to play under control and will be counted on heavily to create lanes in his matchup with MLB Danny Clark. Look for Ryan to continue to utilize his defensive personnel by using his 4-2-5 to put them in better situations and alignments to succeed.

The Bills offensive line played its best game last week with the return of RG Chris Villarrial and RT Mike Williams and will be geared toward controlling a defensive line lead by NT Ted Washington and RDT Warren Sapp. The Bills' offensive line must do an effective job of producing a consistent push at the line of scrimmage and allowing McGahee plenty of creases to work between the tackles against an average linebacker corps. Also, look for the Raiders to put a high emphasis this week on tackling and getting off the field on third-and-short yardages situations. Both SS Derrick Gibson and FS Stuart Schweigert will be depended on heavily to play under control and not allow any explosive running plays to get beyond the second level of the Raiders' defense.

Passing: QB Kelly Holcomb is 2-0 as the Bills starting quarterback and must continue to play at a high level against a Raiders secondary that is ranked 28th in the NFL, allowing 248.6 yards a game. Holcomb is not a real mobile quarterback like Losman, so the Raiders will blitz the formation based on sub personnel groupings and force Holcomb into making mistakes like he did last week against the Jets. WR Eric Moulds has come to life with Holcomb at quarterback. Moulds caught his second TD pass in as many games last week and continues to show ability and big-play flair. Look for the Raiders to contain Moulds by utilizing a safety over the top or a linebacker underneath in bracket coverage depending on how Rob Ryan sets up his match-up zones based on down and distance. It also could be an in-game adjustment since Moulds is averaging under 10-yards per catch. Moulds is a very physical receiver and a big red zone threat who can outmuscle most cornerbacks, but the Raiders possess two big corners in both Charles Woodson and Nnamdi Asomugha. Woodson has shown good versatility in sub as he has aligned at both corner and free safety depending on game plan.

Look for the Bills to spread the field on third down and attack certain mismatches that they can exploit. The Bills have an explosive receiver in Lee Evans and a quicker-than-fast-type receiver in Josh Reed and the Raiders will counter in sub with third corner Fabian Washington and the versatile Renaldo Hill. Also, look for Holcomb to utilize TE Mark Campbell and RB Shaud Williams in the short controlled passing attack, especially with all the attention given to the receiving corps.

When the Raiders have the ball
Rushing: The Raiders will pound the ball behind their big offensive line with Jordon. The Raiders have used a pass first, run second philosophy and have struggled to create good balance within the offensive system. With the injury to Moss, look for the Raiders to run this week to set up the play-action pass. The Raiders' offensive line averages 318 pounds and must do a better job of controlling the line of scrimmage vs. a defense line that averages 293 pounds. The Raiders are averaging 70.6 yards per game while the Bills are giving up an average of 158.5 yards per game. The Bills' run defense is still getting gashed for too many big plays due to poor gap control with their aggressive style. RDT Tim Anderson has replaced the injured Ron Edwards and WLB Angelo Crowell has replaced the heart and soul of the defense in Takeo Spikes, which has resulted in certain weaknesses that offenses have exposed and attacked. The Bills lack good interior depth on the defensive line which has resulted in giving up some big plays in critical situations.

Zack Crockett, the teams' short-yardage specialist and starting FB, will need to do an effective job of leading up inside as a lead blocker in the Raiders two-back offense. With the possibility of Moss not playing, the Bills will turn their attention toward running back Jordon and QB Kerry Collins. Look for Bills to use multiple fronts that will allow SLB Jeff Posey to walk-up and align on the outside shade of the tight end and SS Lawyer Milloy to invert and move down as an extra defender in the box. MLB London Fletcher must be a rock in the middle and do a good job of avoiding blocks and making plays within the box. The Raiders must stay patient and continue to attack the Bills multiple fronts, which will allow them to get back on track in the AFC West.

Passing: QB Kerry Collins' streak of 150 consecutive passes without an interception came to an end last week. The injury to Moss will plague the Raiders with a lot of offensive problems against the Bills No. 1-ranked pass defense that is allowing only 136.8 yards a game. Collins has a passer rating of 85.9 and will need to utilize his offensive weapons by getting into rhythm behind a strong running game that will set up the pass. With the injury to Moss, look for defensive coordinator Jerry Gray to blitz and pressure Collins to keep him scrambling and force him into making poor decisions by throwing into double coverage. The Bills' secondary, led by RC Nate Clements and FS Troy Vincent, can match up against the Raiders spread offense in passing situations. Look for Clements to match up with WR Jerry Porter and LC Terrence McGee to match up with WR Doug Gabriel.

Look for Gabriel to have an impact in this game after finishing with five catches for 84 yards last week -- the Raiders will look to exploit this matchup with McGee. The Raiders have a big offensive line and will have to spend a lot of time this week to shore up protections with an emphasis on protecting the edges due to the edge pressure of RDE Aaron Schobel, LDE Chris Kelsay and SLB Jeff Posey. The Raiders are still struggling on third-down efficiency and red zone production, whereas the Bills have struggled to slow offensives down in the red area and have been erratic in different situations through the start of the season. Look for the Bills to continue to play a lot of eight-man fronts with SS Lawyer Milloy cheated up as the fourth linebacker-type in order to focus on stopping Jordan and the Raiders' rushing attack.
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Old 10-22-2005, 10:56 PM   #2
ZwHRoTTn

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Jordan for 200 yards and 22 TDs and the Raiders still lose.
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