[ZAtlLVos]

Indianapolis (6-0, 3-0 away) at Houston (0-5, 0-2 home)

Why To Watch
Houston is dealing with key injuries on defense as well as at receiver and it will come out running the ball with RB Domanick Davis in an effort to mask those problems. The hope is staying committed to the run will keep the Texans' defense well-rested and take some pressure off QB David Carr when he drops back to pass. Indianapolis still has the best scoring defense in the league and it's doing a great job of generating turnovers but Monday night was its toughest test to date and it surrendered three touchdowns. While Houston isn't as balanced or as explosive as St. Louis, the Texans are an AFC South rival and the Colts' playmaking defense will look to make a statement. However, defending the run must be Indianapolis' first priority. If it fails to stop the run, the pass rush won't get many chances to get after Carr.


When the Colts have the ball
Rushing: Manning is at is best when the running game sets up the play-action package and he can use his outstanding play fakes to keep the opposing backs off balance. That's not good news for Houston because there are three reasons to believe that James will have a strong game. The first reason is the Texans' front seven has been depleted by injuries. LDE Gary Walker and LOLB Jason Babin have miissed the past three games because of shoulder injuries. LILB Kailee Wong sustained a season-ending knee injury last week. As a result, there isn't great depth so the front seven is vulnerable to wearing down over the course of the game.

In addition, playing so many backups increases the chances of a breakdown in communication or a player filling the wrong gap, especially since Wong called the plays in the huddle and made pre-snap adjustments. James is a patient runner that has excellent vision and he will take advantage when he notices a Houston defender out of position. The second reason Indianapolis should have success running the ball is the Texans did a terrible job of tackling last week. James runs with good power and he stays balanced so he can bounce off arm tackles. The third reason Houston will have a hard time limiting James' production on the ground is the passing game will make it tough for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to play eight men in the box.

Passing: Fangio will be in a difficult position when Manning drops back to pass. The Texans could play soft cover schemes that drop seven men into coverage and take away the big play by keeping the safeties deep but they aren't generating enough pressure when they don't blitz. Manning is patient and he almost always finds the open man when given enough time. While Fangio could blitz heavily on downs with pass-heavy tendencies, there's little reason to believe that approach will be any more effective. Manning does an excellent job of reading defenses and he will locate a favorable matchup when Houston brings additional pressure. It's also worth noting that James will play a big role when Fangio blitzes. James is an underrated pass blocker that does an excellent job of picking up the blitz when he's asked to help out in pass protection and he is a reliable receiver out of the backfield.

Making matters worse for Fangio are Manning's poise and excellent ball skills. Throwing a number of different looks at him won't have much affect on him because he is so experienced and poised that he can adjust to pretty much any look thrown at him. In addition, there are no guarantees that the Texans will be able to prevent the big play even when they do drop seven men into coverage. If Houston's secondary starts biting on play action, it will open the door for a receiver to slip behind the coverage and Manning has the vision to find him.

When the Texans have the ball
Rushing: The Texans have yet to give Davis 20 carries this year and that will have to change if they are to get their first win of the season this week. With the defense dealing with so many injuries and struggling to mount a consistent pass rush Houston has to win the battle of time of possession. Consistently handing the ball off to Davis will eat up the clock and limit Manning's opportunities to put points on the board. In addition, the hope is Davis will be effective enough to keep the Colts' defensive line on its heels and create shorter third-down situations for Carr. However, there is reason to believe that won't be the case.

Although Davis runs with good power and he has the lateral mobility to cut back, he lacks ideal explosiveness and he needs the offensive lines to create seams for him to be productive. Indianapolis' front four is explosive and active. It's capable of consistently shooting gaps working against a Houston offensive line that doesn't match up well with one-gap defenses. That means Davis will have to make some cuts before hitting the hole. Since he doesn't have great burst, any hesitation in the backfield should give the Colts' pursuit enough time to close in on him.

Passing: No offense has given up more sacks than the Texans and no defense has recorded more sacks than Indianapolis. Finding a way to keep Carr up right has to be a priority for offensive coordinator Joe Pendry consequently. The offensive line simply doesn't have the personnel to match up with Indianapolis' front four so Pendry will likely run a lot of max-protect schemes that keep a tight end and/or back to help out. However, that means releasing fewer players on routes and giving Carr fewer options working against a defense that will consistently drop six-to-seven men into coverage. That will force him to hold onto the ball longer essentially giving the pass rush more time to get to him. Pendry's other option is releasing the tight end and back so they can provide Carr with a safety valve. The problem here is ROLB Cato June has intercepted five passes and Houston cannot afford to turn the ball over. Without the extra blockers buying him some more time, Carr could make some poor decisions under pressure that give June an opportunity to make a play on the ball.

The fact that WR Andre Johnson, who has missed last week's game with a calf injury, may not be available at this point doesn't make Carr's life any easier. Johnson has the speed, size and body control to stretch the Colts' defense vertically. Even if he doesn't make any big plays, he draws attention away from other receivers and he opens up the short-to-intermediate routes by forcing the safeties to play deeper. If he can't play, an Indianapolis pass defense that has already intercepted 11 passes will be that much more aggressive in jumping routes underneath.

[Liaptoono]

Only 15 points?

Shit, thats a lock and a half.

[Darlmtgq]

2G's on the Horse shoes!

[rockboyzaza]

I've lost 17 of my last 18 football bets. 8500 sullies on the Colts.

[Boveosteors]

I've lost 17 of my last 18 football bets. 8500 sullies on the Colts.

Mirrors suck sometimes.

[Pashtet]

I'm shooting about 90% on these bets. That means I am good at betting with fake money.

[CxofxJFm]

I'm shooting about 90% on these bets. That means I am good at betting with fake money.

real money fake money, this one is a lock.