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There are too many quality running backs available this offseason. It’s a buyers market. NFL teams seeking backfield help must feel like Brian Billick choosing which Ravens trial to attend in the offseason. Where to start? There are superstars in their prime; Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James. There are disgruntled veterans available as trade bait; Travis Henry, Michael Bennett, and Reuben Droughns. There are attractively priced veterans; LaMont Jordan, Rudi Johnson. There are even intriguing backups; Najeh Davenport, Derrick Blaylock, Anthony Thomas, Dominic Rhodes, and Marshall Faulk possibly among them.

Throw in the best college class of running backs in years, led by three premier horses, and we have a flooded marketplace. There are way too many quality players for starting jobs. This should lead to a ton of movement in the next month, and brand new fantasy outlooks. The amount of talent available works against players like Alexander and James. Teams would be smart not to invest heavily in a position that can be filled so cheaply. Players like Travis Henry and Anthony Thomas may end up begging for playing time.

Here’s a look at the top backs available and where we think they’ll end up. I included a short list of teams likely to be on the market at the end of the players section.

1. Edgerrin James, Colts – IND/UFA The Miami Herald’s Dan LeBatard says Edgerrin James is obsessed with money, and he played like it in 2004. With free agency approaching, James enjoyed his best post-knee surgery season, with 2,131 total yards and the highest per-touch averages of his career.

James has openly campaigned to return to Miami, his hometown. They certainly have a huge need. We seriously doubt if Nick Saban, who learned under Bill Belichick, will invest so much cap money in a running back that has major knee surgery and over 2,000 NFL touches in his rearview mirror. Miami is more likely to build cheaply through the draft.

The most likely outcome for James is to stay in Indianapolis under the franchise tag. But the Colts have to wonder if that money would be better spent on defense. James also has said he’d holdout if given the tag. “Tagging” and trading him is a possibility.

Prediction: Seattle, 4 years, $11 million signing bonus. Arizona, Miami, and Oakland are all potential suitors. He makes sense as a Raider. That said, we’re putting him in Seattle as Shaun Alexander’s replacement. They are one of the few teams with the cash to take the Edge off the market.

Fantasy Mojo: He’s probably a top ten back wherever he goes, but no spot is better than staying in Indy.

2. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks – SEA/UFA Alexander is a fantasy owner’s dream: all he cares about are numbers. There were rumors Seattle didn’t want Alexander because of selfishness before the ‘back-stabbing’ end to the regular season. Now they look unlikely to prevent him from hitting free agency.

Arizona, San Francisco, Miami, Oakland, and Indianapolis are all possibilities. Alexander reportedly wants to be where the national spotlight shines bright. We don’t see a match in any big markets though. His experience in the West Coast offense makes him a natural fit for teams that run it.

Prediction: Arizona, 5-years, $12 million signing bonus. He’s another player who makes sense in Oakland, but the cap space is lacking. Arizona should have a ton of cap space, and Dennis Green wants to fix his offense now.

Fantasy Mojo: It will be hard to find a better situation than Seattle – a high scoring team with perhaps the best run-blocking O-line in football. A natural slide in stats, especially receiving, could be expected in most places.

3. LaMont Jordan, Jets – NYJ/UFA: Jordan is in a great spot. He won’t require the high price tag of other top veterans this offseason, and he won’t require a draft pick as compensation. He has the experience of a four-year veteran, but only 262 carries. His body hasn’t taken a pounding since college.

Jordan also has the talent: a 4.9 yards-per-carry career average. He’s played well against Oakland and Miami, two teams we see as likely suitors.

Prediction: The San Francisco Chronicle has already reported Oakland is preparing a “strong offer” for Jordan. It would be a great move for both parties. Norv Turner would have his power running back and Jordan would finally have a starting job.

Fantasy Mojo:Going through the roof, likely no matter what team he goes to. He’s a target in keeper or dynasty leagues.

4. Rudi Johnson, Bengals – CIN/UFA A franchise-record 1,454 yards and 12 scores will not earn Rudi a long-term contract from the Bengals. It doesn’t make economic sense and the Bengals have first-round pick Chris Perry waiting in the wings. The Bengals are unlikely to let Rudi walk, though. Johnson says he will not play under a “franchise” tag, he probably won’t have any choice.

Prediction: Stays in Cincinnati under the franchise tag of $6.3 million. Rudi is in a tough spot. If he holds out of camp, he’ll give Chris Perry time to steal carries. Johnson is likely to lose some work to Perry regardless.

Fantasy Mojo: His value may have already peaked. Wouldn’t be a bad time for a trade in keeper leagues if you get fair value back.

5. Michael Bennett – MIN/Trade Candidate There are way too many running backs in Minnesota, and Bennett looks to be the most expendable. Two possible landing spots are intriguing: Arizona and Indianapolis. Dennis Green could look to acquire his former draft pick if he doesn’t score big in free agency or the draft. Bennett’s speed would be maximized on Indianapolis’ turf, making him a possible replacement for Edgerrin James.

Prediction: Indianapolis or Arizona, but we’ll pick Indy for a third-round draft pick. The Colts could team Bennett with another runner in a running back by committee.

6. Travis Henry – BUF/Trade Candidate No player could get more screwed by the crowded running back market than Henry. He’s earned a chance at a starting job after gaining 2,800 yards with 23 TDs from 2002-2003. His injuries last season aren’t a huge negative because he’ll come back fresh.

Henry will make some team a great power running back, but we’re not sure where he fits. Tampa and Miami are logical, but both could draft younger players early. Miami is also short on draft picks. Indianapolis could be looking, but they probably want a runner with better receiving skills. There just aren’t enough jobs to go around.

Prediction: The Giants, Steelers, 49ers, and Jets could be interested in Henry as a goal-line threat. Let’s say San Francisco, competing with Kevan Barlow.

Fantasy Mojo: Keeper league owners counting on Henry to get a starting job could be disappointed. Carries will likely be far from guaranteed.

7. Brian Westbrook – PHI/RFA Westbrook would be ranked higher, but he’s not going anywhere. At least not this offseason. The Eagles will place the highest one-year tender on Westbrook, requiring an opponent to give up two first round picks to get him.

Prediction: Won’t come close to a long-term deal, but should stay in Philadelphia under a one-year deal.

Fantasy Mojo: It’s hard to see Westbrook’s role growing. Correll Buckhalter should return and the Eagles may draft a runner as leverage for Westbrook leaving next season. That said, he’s in his prime.

8. Marshall Faulk – STL/Trade and Release Candidate Faulk is not expected to retire this offseason. But we’re surprised that the possibility of a trade or release hasn’t been a bigger story. Faulk’s cap number is $7.53 million next season, a ridiculous number with Steven Jackson ready to carry the load. Faulk also might be unwilling to restructure if he sees a chance to win elsewhere. Indianapolis would be an incredible fit for both sides.

Prediction:Trade to Indianapolis. It’s more fun than predicting he’ll stay.

Fantasy Mojo: Faulk is probably nothing more than a fantasy reserve, no matter where he plays.

9. Najeh Davenport – GB/RFA The Packers should be careful to place the highest one-year tender on Davenport. If they gamble, a team like Miami would love to force Green Bay’s hand with a big offer. Since Ahman Green is headed for free agency next season, we think the Packers will pay a premium to hold on to Davenport.

Prediction: He should stay in Green Bay under a one-year tender.

Fantasy Mojo: We think he’ll be a top 15 running back before long. But it probably won’t happen until next season. A dynasty league target.

10. Reuben Droughns – DEN/Trade Candidate The Broncos granted Droughns permission to seek a trade, but it will be tough to pull off. The fullback’s 1,240 yards will be attributed to Denver’s “system.” Moreover, the concerns about Droughns’ durability proved correct when he tired badly down the stretch. Teams may desire Droughns as a goal-line back or backup, but a starting job appears unlikely.

Prediction: He stays in Denver as a fullback.

11. Derrick Blaylock – KC/UFA Blaylock racked up 788 total yards and 9 scores despite only 143 touches last season. He looks like a prototype third-down back that won’t be embarrassed if called upon for more responsibility. He’s unlikely to return to Kansas City with Priest Holmes gone. The Jets, Rams, Titans, Colts, and 49ers could all be looking for a player like Blaylock.

Fantasy Mojo: Leaving Kansas City can’t be a good thing. It will likely take an injury for Blaylock to have value next season.

12. Anthony Thomas – CHI/RFA Gaining 1,000 yards rushing doesn’t mean what it used to. The A-train has done it twice in his four-year career, but is unlikely to attract much interest on the free agent. The Giants and Titans look like two teams Thomas could serve as a backup.

Prediction: Titans, 2-year deal.

Fantasy Mojo:Seriously on the wane. Dynasty leaguers should see where he ends up though.

13. Correll Buckhalter – PHI/UFA Buckhalter picked a bad time to have his second major knee reconstruction. The Eagles will probably look to resign him for cheap, but he’ll have a battle just to get his old role back.

Prediction: Resigns with the Eagles on a one-year deal.

Fantasy Mojo: Worth owning in dynasty leagues, but needs to show something in camp before re-drafts consider.

14. Dominic Rhodes – IND/UFA Rhodes is intriguing. He ran for over 1,100 yards as a starter before reconstructive knee surgery. He’s averaged 4.56 yards-per-carry in limited work as Edgerrin James’ backup since. He’ll make someone a fine backup. If Edgerrin James leaves, he could return to Indy as a member of a committee and get more work.

Prediction: Signs with the Giants for 2 years, $4 million.

Fantasy Mojo: Solid upside for someone so far under the radar. He’s an interesting late pick in dynasty leagues.

15. Chester Taylor – BAL/RFA: Gained 714 yards on only 160 carries as Jamal Lewis replacement. Baltimore should want him back. Great Lewis insurance.

16. William Green – CLE/Candiate for release: Romeo Crennel will want to take out Burch Davis’s trash. Green would be a good start, and we can’t imagine he’d attract much interest around the league.

17 Verron Haynes – PIT/RFA: Versatile back can run (4.9 ypc) and catch (18 catches for 142 yards). The Steelers will want to keep him. Could be a very interesting player if Jerome Bettis retires.

18. Jesse Chatman – SD/RFA Chargers should bring him back to battle Michael Turner for the right to hold LT2’s jock strap.

19. Jonathan Wells – HOU/RFA Texans may deem him expendable if they think Tony Hollings can take over as the team’s backup. It’s more likely that Wells will be back.

20. Amos Zereoue – OAK/UFA - We doubt he’ll ever got a chance to start again.

21. Ron Dayne – NYG/UFA - Next.

22. Dorsey Levens – PHI/UFA – Likely headed for re-retirement.

The Rest: Jamel White BAL/RFA, Kenny Watson, CIN/RFA, Garrison Hearst DEN/UFA, Travis Minor, MIA/UFA, J. R. Redmond, OAK/UFA, Rod “He Hate Me” Smart, CAR/UFA, Jamal Robertson, CAR/RFA, Brandon Bennett, CAR/UFA, Michael Cloud, NYG/UFA, Rock Cartwright, WASH/RFA

Teams with Need

1. Miami: Lamar Gordon is on the roster and could be a decent third-down back. The Dolphins will use their high draft pick or invest in free agency, but not both. Their terrible offensive line is the main concern.

2. Arizona: Impatient Dennis Green is not going with Marcel Shipp. Could get one of the collegiate “Big 3” at pick 7.

3. Seattle: Will either pay Shaun Alexander big or invest in free agency elsewhere. We doubt they’ll go with Maurice Morris without competition.

4. Oakland: Should clean house with current backs. Might eschew drafting a top back in favor of signing one.

5. Indianapolis: James doesn’t make cap sense, but is likely to stay. If not, the Colts have plenty of options to go cheap. Marshall Faulk would be a great fit.

6. Giants: They were terrible in short-yardage situations. Will look for a powerful and experienced option to partner with Tiki.

7. Titans: They need a solid backup considering Chris Brown’s injury history.

8. Browns: There’s a good chance they clean house with William Green. Romeo will want “their guy” to challenge Lee Suggs.

9. Jets: Need a replacement for LaMont Jordan. They may look to develop a rookie rather than going the free agency route.

10. Steelers: Might want a veteran presence as Duce Staley insurance – if Jerome Bettis retires.

11. 49ers: Kevan Barlow is signed long-term, but they need to upgrade the position anyway. Should look for a solid backup.

12. Rams : Only if Marshall Faulk leaves.



13. Eagles: Needs a power running back and a young player to develop.

14. Saints: Could use an upgrade at backup, but not a huge priority.

[steansathtpos]

No way Westy leaves Philly...this is where he wants to be, and he'll still get plenty of touches. Buck may/may not be back...I really see us drafting a RB on day one...so it depends on who we pick if Buck comes back.

[avavavava]

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