[UJRonald]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe
How would you define recession then if not for the classic macroeconomic one of 2 or more sequential quarters of negative GDP growth? The trouble with the definition is that it doesn't consider trend growth. With a productivity growth of +-2% and a population growth of +-1% growth the US has a trend growth of +-3% (numbers are off, but not by much). If there's, say, 0% growth for a year, there's going to be plenty of hardship.
Hence, I prefer to consider a sustained drop in the employment rate as a simple indicator of recession.