[smifatv]

Teh Dow was up 300 points today.

[heinz_1966]

I like apple and i think they were overvalued. Back a few months at 200$ i wouldnt recommend anyone to buy-it didnt make sense to me that stellar growth would continue-why buy high?

Am i ignored?

[Bounce]

Not that i'd expect to see them here, but I'd love to hear from the stock knowledgeable folks here about what this looks like. I'm only somewhat knowledgeable - grew up in a stock trading household with the Nightly Business Report, but I haven't heard Paul Kangas except very briefly in a decade... - so i'm not entirely sure how to read this, but here goes.

I'd say the $200 was clearly a bit overvalued at the time, as tech stocks often are. AAPL needed to outperform, AND at least project the expected projection. They didn't, so they went down.

However, from seeing some of the option trading and such, several of the forbes articles indicate that some of the negative was profit-taking and from what I recall that is usually reversed the next day on 'strong' stocks, which AAPL clearly is.

I don't think you can take one day's performance and say something meaningful about a stock; and I'd probably buy AAPL today if I had money to spend buying things, and didn't mind a riskier investment (as all tech stocks are). I also would have sold at 200 based on the previous performance, expecting another downturn at which point I could buy it again; today.

If only GOOG would follow this pattern, a lot of money could be made...

[PaulCameron]

So where is everyone?

I'm particularly interested in Drogue and Agathon's assertions that this is all due to the "coming recession". Drogue's comment about Apple being a "luxury good" and having sales drop off from it is also at odds with both common sense and industry experts.

Apple sells to a segment of the market that is historically least affected by economic downturns. Most experts don't expect them to be affected much, if at all.

I'm so tired of kicking ass without any opposition. Somebody with a clue please say something.

[Rtebydou]

The comment wasn't made in December 2006, and the comment still held. The P/E on Apple stock has been way out of whack for years, making it a volatile stock. Apple stock's high price is based on high expectations of future growth that single-handedly rest on Jobs' reality distortion field.

Yes, Apple is doing extremely well (even today, when the stock tanked). The problem is the price of Apple's stock hasn't been supported by their performance for years now. It can pay off if they can continue to show phenomenal growth, but sustaining such growth is unreasonable and unlikely. My words were, when I said it was overvalued, that "Some day, Apple's stock is going to crash -- and hard" as soon as a bad estimate came out. That's happened exactly as predicted, though you would have still made money on the stock if you bought it a year ago and sold it now, of course. But that doesn't change the fact that it's overpriced.

[SaraKonradtt]

Originally posted by snoopy369

I'd say the $200 was clearly a bit overvalued at the time, as tech stocks often are. AAPL needed to outperform, AND at least project the expected projection. They didn't, so they went down. Some analysts were predicting that AAPL would top $250 a share, so $200 wasn't that unreasonable.

Look, this is a storm in a teacup. For one reason or another AAPL investors are inclined to bolt when the market as a whole starts turning down. It already happened in November, and there was a bounce back to even higher levels than before.

[nonDosearrany]

Originally posted by Agathon
Some analysts were predicting that AAPL would top $250 a share, so $200 wasn't that unreasonable. That's the most asinine logic I've heard in quite some time.

$250 is unreasonable, $200 is unreasonable. The earnings per share just aren't there. I don't think you understand the whole underlying purpose of stocks at all.

The fact that the stock went down so much so fast illustrates the value of it isn't supported by the underlying earnings. If it WAS, then the fact that Apple had record earnings would have a POSITIVE effect, not a huge negative effect.

I tried to explain this to you then, I'm explaining it to you now, but you still don't get it. You don't have the slightest idea of how the stock market works or how value is determined, or when to buy. Here's a hint: Buying at $200 on a stock that already has a dismal P/E in a volatile market like technology is a bad idea, yet you whole-heartedly recommend people buy it up last month. If they had, you'd have lost them a LOT of money.

Stick to your day job.

Look, this is a storm in a teacup. For one reason or another AAPL investors are inclined to bolt when the market as a whole starts turning down.
What do you not get? The market was positive today.

This has nothing to do with the overall market, and everything to do with Apple's forecasts. That's obvious to anyone who can read a frickin' newspaper, or with any kind of analytical ability.

[paydayloanfasters]

Originally posted by Flubber
Apple? I got Mrs Flubber one of them Itouch things-- expensive but I must say its pretty cool I have one of those. I use it as a PDA. Have you seen the jailbroken ones? They are truly awesome. I'm hoping that game developers will jump on board as there's a lot of potential there.

[AndyColemants]

Originally posted by Agathon
I have one of those. I use it as a PDA. Have you seen the jailbroken ones? They are truly awesome. I'm hoping that game developers will jump on board as there's a lot of potential there. A lot of potential?

How so?

The hardware,especially the graphics (2D/3D), is gimped.

There are PocketPCs with touchscreens and far more capable hardware, along with fully developed SDKs for game development.

This isn't a new feature nor is it an area for a whole lot of potential. Been there, done that. I remember playing AOE on my iPaq many years ago.

[Chubrehege]

Originally posted by Flubber
For me and for Mrs Flubber, we frankly don't care-- It was super easy to use which is a major criteria when buying any kind of electronics for Mrs Flubber. She loves the thing and was very happy when I gave it as a gift Yes yes, I can understand how you can like it as an MP3 player.

My comment was to Agathon as if it was some groundbreaking device for games.

[Sironimoll]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Asher's short must have finally come through for him.

After how many years?

I've seen some stupid, moronic trolls from him before, but this has to be one of the most pathetically executed ones.

i.e. "I've been saying Apple is overvalued for years now, and now that it's dropped some (for reasons largely unrelated to the company's performance) and even though it's still worth many times what it was when I originally claimed it was overvalued, I feel the need to pretend that this is somehow a vindication of my warped and insane view."

Comical.

Apolyton's serial fraud strikes again.

[mpegdvdclip]

Originally posted by rah
A lot of the dissagreements in this thread are based on timing, who said what when.

SO I propose a challange.
Predict what price the stock will be at on OCT 1st this year and explain why. Then we can come back and check to see who was right. With no possible arguements. (no arguements, who am I kidding ) Not a bad Idea at all...


And just let me add what you might expect at this point...

Discuss the topic and enough with the personal insults
Feel free to discuss how wrong somebody is, but let's leave the insults out of it.

Thank you, and bring on the pop corn.

[pkopwqzsdcvbn]

While the stock market was up yesterday... over all, the NASDAQ has taken a dive in the last month, just like Apple

[orbidewa]

AAPL vs NASDAQ, last 30 days.

[Herimoisige]

So, I never went back to work for Lieutenant Dan. Though he did take care of my Bubba Gump money. He got me invested in some kind of fruit company. And so then I got a call from him saying we don't have to worry about money no more and I said, "That's good. One less thing".

[shkarpet$]

Originally posted by Asher
"experts" are trying to make money. What they say drives the stock up/down, and with it their investments. Of course they say "buy", they probably own the stock. A little cynical aren't you

Nahhhh... I'm talking about the journalist analysts, the ones who make money predicting and talking about it, and not trading it. (in many cases, it would be a conflict of interest and is not allowed by their employers)

Interestingly enough, I get "pre-release" issues of some of the business magazines because we are running advertising in them. I had to sign a non-disclosure form before being able to look at them. Because once they hit the news stands, stories that appear can move the market. And knowing that a day or so before would make the stock market not much of a gamble