[Aleksis]

Since we have had some UFO threads I just thought this would be a good supplementary post. Rather than discussing UFO's this goes a step further and examines the probability of finding intelligent civilizations within the universe using the Drake Equation and explaining why we have not found concrete evidence with the Fermi Paradox.

From the SETI league
Is there a way to estimate the number of technologically advanced civilizations that might exist in our Galaxy? While working at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Green Bank, West Virginia, Dr. Frank Drake conceived a means to mathematically estimate the number of worlds that might harbor beings with technology sufficient to communicate across the vast gulfs of interstellar space. The Drake Equation, as it came to be known, was formulated in 1961 and is generally accepted by the scientific community. N = R* fp ne fl fi fc L

• N = The number of communicative civilizations
• R* = The rate of formation of suitable stars (stars such as our Sun)
• fp = The fraction of those stars with planets. (Current evidence indicates that planetary systems may be common for stars like the Sun.)
• ne = The number of Earth-like worlds per planetary system
• fl = The fraction of those Earth-like planets where life actually develops
• fi = The fraction of life sites where intelligence develops
• fc = The fraction of communicative planets (those on which electromagnetic communications technology develops)
• L = The "lifetime" of communicating civilizations

Drake estimated that there are 10 communicative civilizations in the Milky way. (N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10,000 = 10.) Read on to learn more or make your own estimates.

Estimate the Drake Equation for yourself

Francis Drake's estimates and Wikipedia article about NASA and other astronomical agencies' estimates

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But wait, Other scientist's estimate and my Estimate predict that there should be hundreds or thousands of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy, but we haven't made contact with any of them? What gives?
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Scientists have been trying to answer this question, known as the Fermi Paradox, proposed by Enrico Fermi

The Fermi paradox is based on the premise that it is natural, logical and right for extraterrestrial civilizations to colonize space. The other side of the Fermi paradox is that it is natural, logical, and right for human civilization to colonize space. From the official SETI website
Enrico Fermi realized that any civilization with a modest amount of rocket technology and an immodest amount of imperial incentive could rapidly colonize the entire Galaxy. Within ten million years, every star system could be brought under the wing of empire. Ten million years may sound long, but in fact it's quite short compared with the age of the Galaxy, which is roughly ten thousand million years. Colonization of the Milky Way should be a quick exercise.You can quibble about the speed of alien spacecraft, and whether they can move at 1 percent of the speed of light or 10 percent of the speed of light. It doesn't matter. You can argue about how long it would take for a new star colony to spawn colonies of its own. It still doesn't matter. Any halfway reasonable assumption about how fast colonization could take place still ends up with time scales that are profoundly shorter than the age of the Galaxy. It's like having a heated discussion about whether Spanish ships of the 16th century could heave along at two knots or twenty. Either way they could speedily colonize the Americas. In depth SETI articles about Fermi Paradox

So why do we see no legitimate evidence of extra terrestrial life in the Milky Way? No one knows for sure, but several possible solutions have been presented.

• Conditions for life such as that one the earth are extremely rare
• Intelligent civilizations destroy themselves before they ever develop the ability to colonize other star systems
• No other civilizations exist
• Extra terrestrial life exists but we cannot communicate with them or see them
• We have not communicated with other civilizations because of the size of the galaxy. The milky way is approximately 100,000 light years across and 1,000 light years thick, therefore, any civilizations in the milky way are too far apart to communicate using radio technology. (A radio signal from one end of the galaxy to the other would take 100,000 years to cross the galaxy.) This problem is also compounded by the idea that other civilizations may not survive for long periods of time.
• Other civilizations have chosen to to colonize the galaxy because of the high cost of colonization.
• Other civilizations do not want to communicate with us. The earth is being monitored, but left alone.
• We ARE the alien civilization. Life on earth came from an alien ship sent to colonize the earth.

Wikipedia article about Fermi Paradox and it's solutions

That is about all I can think of right now, Maybe some of us can post what we get for the answer to the Drake Equations. Hope people find this interesting. [yes]

[55Beaphable]

The moment we don´t know even one of the variables in the Drake equation,
It becomes useless.

[Aleksis]

The moment we don´t know even one of the variables in the Drake equation,
It becomes useless.

Thanks I really appreciate your input. Perhaps instead of being so daft and simply posting "it is worthless" you should sit at think about it. I posted this because it interests me. Instead of grabbing on by these "I saw it I swear I did" stories, some of us like to take a mathematical approach to the idea of intelligent life in the galaxy. Making informed guesses about variables in the equation is no more "useless" than the stories about astronauts "seeing" alien spacecraft. Each has it's own place. Unfortunately, you don't seem to understand that. It's really too bad for you.

[Adeniinteme]

Making informed guesses about variables in the equation is no more "useless" than the tosh you post about astronauts "seeing" alien spacecraft. Unfortunately, you don't seem to understand that. It's really too bad for you.

What are you using to approximate your various rates? I don't believe habitable planets have a 100 percent chance of life on them. I don't believe habitable planets with life have a 0.01 chance of intelligent life. It's probably closer to 0.00000000001.

[duribass]

I am one of the people that highly beleive in this one

* We ARE the alien civilization. Life on earth came from an alien ship sent to colonize the earth.

Or having parrallel planets like our planet earth probably with humans too but are more advanced than us by thousands may be millions of years

[Aleksis]

What are you using to approximate your various rates? I don't believe habitable planets have a 100 percent chance of life on them. I don't believe habitable planets with life have a 0.01 chance of intelligent life. It's probably closer to 0.00000000001.

I didn't do any of the calculations, the one posted was Fermi's esimation off of wikipedia, but in general, some people see the calculations as generous, while others see them as too strict. That's the fun of the experiment.

I estimated about 225 civilizations with

Rate of star formation in the galaxy = 6 (well accepted)
Fraction of starts with planets = .2
Number of earth like planets/star = 1
Fraction of earth like planets where life develops = .5
Fraction where intelligent life develops = 1
Fraction where communication develops = .75
Lifetime of civilization after reaching radio communication = 500

Of course, it's all just an estimate.

[ZXRamon]

Very Interesting. I do believe there is intelligent life life out there, especially in other dimensions, I cant wait for 2012 too see if the Mayan calendar stays true and don't error for the first time.

[AAAESLLESO]

• ne = The number of Earth-like worlds per planetary system
• fl = The fraction of those Earth-like planets where life actually develops
• fi = The fraction of life sites where intelligence develops
• fc = The fraction of communicative planets (those on which electromagnetic communications technology develops)
• L = The "lifetime" of communicating civilizations

N = R* fp ne fl fi fc L

(N = R(10) × fp(0.5) × ne(2) × fl(1) × fi(0.01) × fc(0.01) × L(10,000) = 10.)

the rate of formation of suitable stars is 10, what is this based off of though?

So the fraction of other sol like stars with planets is .5 so there's only 1 other star like our sun with earth like planets?

The number of earth like worlds per solar system is 2 ( referring to ours , mars and venus are considered earth like from the most up to date studies) although including earth that would be 3 like planets for our solar system. however the above is asuming 2 planets per solar system, for any earth like planets i have heard from other systems was about 1 possible for maybe 1 or 2 systems we have found

The fraction of those where life we know life developes is 1. we do not know that life developed on mars of venus. the fraction would be 1/3 or .3 for our system. the problem here is the 1 isnt taking into acount the other possible planets as above. the following seem to be accounting for other planets when he states the .01

so the fraction of all those considers planets where we know intelligent life develops is .01, we know there's 1. so 1 out of a total of 3 planets .3 again for ours but an unknown number considering all the others as above

Fc again is the same story again

assuming 10 is correct for the formation of suitable stars and there is only one other star as per the original given fraction and also a lifetime is 10,000 years if asumed then

10 x .5 x 3 x .3 x.3 x .3 x 10,000 = 4050

based off of our solar system there could be 4050 other civilizations out there but thats based off of our solar system which would assume all the rest that fit the criteria are like ours.


fl, fi and fc should all be the same numbers/fractions whether we count just our solar system or the possible thousands of other earth like planets in sol like systems

to reiterate my problem is with
fl = The fraction of those Earth-like planets where life actually develops
fi = The fraction of life sites where intelligence develops
fc = The fraction of communicative planets (those on which electromagnetic communications technology develops)

All the above should be the same but they are not stated as since the original values for the equation were
fl= 1
fi= 0.01
fc= 0.01

[ChebuRAtoR]

I am one of the people that highly beleive in this one

* We ARE the alien civilization. Life on earth came from an alien ship sent to colonize the earth.

Or having parrallel planets like our planet earth probably with humans too but are more advanced than us by thousands may be millions of years

I also like to think this as well, even if I don't really believe it, as it really fires up the imagination. Question is what form do you think they dropped us off at? Did they leave a drop of bacteria on the planet just to see what happens? Do they keep returning every million years to help evolution along? Did they discover life existed on the planet and decided to leave an imprint of their genes on the closest species to resemble theirs, the Apes.

Do they protect us from other Aliens? Is the Star Trek idea close with a whole federation out there and we are just a small fish in a very very big pond.

[SimSlim]

I also like to think this as well, even if I don't really believe it, as it really fires up the imagination. Question is what form do you think they dropped us off at? Did they leave a drop of bacteria on the planet just to see what happens? Do they keep returning every million years to help evolution along? Did they discover life existed on the planet and decided to leave an imprint of their genes on the closest species to resemble theirs, the Apes.

Do they protect us from other Aliens? Is the Star Trek idea close with a whole federation out there and we are just a small fish in a very very big pond.

It seems most of the alien theories always tend to rely on that they have further advanced technology and other things.

What if we were the most technologically advanced intelligent life that existed!? Crazy stuff!

[ZXRamon]

A key truth is that there is a DIVINE PLAN. The future belongs to those that trust in the process and are willing to go with the divine plan. The main tool for understanding this plan is the Mayan calendar.

The truth about the Mayan calendar is really not difficult to understand. The problem is only that we have all been conditioned by a materialist mind that makes us look for the ultimate explanations in the material reality rather tha in the divine plan. Needless to say, many, especially in the West, have egos that find it difficult to accept that they are subordinated to a divine plan that can not even potentially be manipulated by physical means. - Carl Johan Calleman.

[ChebuRAtoR]

It seems most of the alien theories always tend to rely on that they have further advanced technology and other things.

What if we were the most technologically advanced intelligent life that existed!? Crazy stuff!

I am of the belief that it's entirely possible this could be the case. I'm pretty sure life exist's other than our own. Whether it evolves to the extent we have is purely chance. And once they reach the industrial age and achieve nuclear power it's all bets off as to if their civilisation will survive. And then they have to deal with climate change. If a life form evolves to the state we have it's almost a certainty they have changed the environment around their whole planet at a similar cost we have.
They then have to survive this crisis without economic failure. If this happens they could plunge themselves into the dark ages if anarchy ensues and wars break out (nukes agian rear their head).
Even then they have to survive nature, comet strikes, desease and god knows what else.

Even if more intelligent life has formed than us it could have come and gone while we where still single celled organisms. Millions of civilisations could have come and gone by now.

[ZXRamon]

2012 Unlimited philosophy

1. Humanity and Planet Earth are currently going through a huge change or shift in consciousness and reality perception.

2. The Mayan civilization of Central America was and is the most advanced in relation to time-science knowledge. Their main calendar is the most accurate on the planet. It has never erred. They actually have 22 calendars in total, covering the many timing cycles in the Universe and Solar System. Some of these calendars are yet to be revealed.

3. The Mayan fifth world finished in 1987. The sixth world starts in 2012. So we are currently "between worlds". This time is called the "Apocalypse" or revealing. This means the real truth will be revealed. It is also the time for us to work through "our stuff" individually and collectively.

4. The Mayan sixth world is actually blank. This means it is up to us, as co-creators, to start creating the new world and civilization we want now.

5. The Mayans also say that by 2012-
- we will have gone beyond technology as we know it.
- we will have gone beyond time and money.
- we will have entered the fifth dimension after passing through the fourth dimension
- Planet Earth and the Solar System will come into galactic synchronization with the rest of the Universe.
- Our DNA will be "upgraded" (or reprogrammed) from the centre of our galaxy. (Hunab Ku)
"Everbody on this planet is mutating. Some are more conscious of it than others. But everyone is doing it" - Extraterrestrial Earth Mission.

6. In 2012 the plane of our Solar System will line up exactly with the plane of our Galaxy, the Milky Way. This cycle has taken 26,000 years to complete. Virgil Armstrong also says that two other galaxies will line up with ours at the same time. A cosmic event!

7. Time is actually speeding up (or collapsing). For thousands of years the Schumann Resonance or pulse (heartbeat) of Earth has been 7.83 cycles per second, The military have used this as a very reliable reference. However, since 1980 this resonance has been slowly rising. It is now over 12 cycles per second! This mean there is the equalivant of less than 16 hours per day instead of the old 24 hours. Another intrepetation is - we, or rather Consciousness have been down this same road seven times before over the last 16 billion years. Each of these cycles of Creation runs 20 times faster than the last one. The same amount of Creation is paced 20 times tighter. This is why time seems to be going so fast. It is not "time" but Creation itself that is accelerating. (see Mayan Calendar Central)

8. During the Apocalypse or the time "between worlds" many people will be going through many personal changes. The changes will be many and varied. It is all part of what we came here to learn or experience. Examples of change could be- relationships coming to an end, change of residence or location, change of job or work, shift in attitude or thinking etc.

9. Remember, in any given moment we are making small and large decisions. Each decision is based on LOVE or FEAR. Choose love, follow your intuition, not intellect and follow your passion or "burning inner desire." Go with the flow.

10. Thought forms are very important and affect our everyday life. We create our reality with thought forms. If we think negative thoughts of others this is what we attract. If we think positive thoughts we will attract positive people and events. So be aware of your thoughts and eliminate the unnecessary negative or judgemental ones.

11. Be aware that most of the media is controlled by just a few. Use discernment! Look for the hidden agendas. Why is this information being presented to you? What is "their" real agenda? Is it a case of problem*reaction*solution? Do "they" create a problem so that "we" react and ask for a fix, then "they" offer their solution? The "solution is what "they" really wanted in the first place.

12. Remember almost nothing happens by accident. Almost all "events" are planned by some agency or other. Despite this, it is a very exciting time to be alive!
The truth shall set you free!

[ChebuRAtoR]

2012, not much time then eh?

If you asked me in 1988 what I thought 2008 would be like I would have been completely wrong. Not much has really changed, it has changed but I aint driving my hover car to the airport to go to the moon for Xmas. I doubt we will find enlightenment in 4 years time.

[soryalomop]

I think there is a high likelihood there is another intelligent life in the galaxy. Basically I feel that unless there is a part of the physical reality we completely are removed from and have no concept, we probably won't run into each other.

Unless there really is folds in space time that are actually usable and controllable, parallel universes or alternate dimensions to "side step" space, again all under some type of control.

DNA based life just won't end up there otherwise, in fact I can't even conceptualize any type of life that would. There has to be not only the technology so far beyond our own (easy concept) but able to control and manipulate our reality to agree that I don't think can actually happen. Even the most out there theories would at best put matter in a different space time, but completely out of control...it just goes somewhere, not a controlled sidestep.

Anyway assuming it was all physically possible, you would need a driver to push this to happen. Another species or other intelligent "life" which was either expanding outward due to requiring additional resources (not likely...if they are that advanced, they almost assuredly have controlled fusion or near limited energy)...so that leaves you with a quest for knowledge or insatiable curiosity similar to humans, the quest for knowledge for knowledge sake....then the ability to recognize a completely alternate life form or manage to communicate through a transmission, which is both sides were able to understand.

I guess that is about what I think...likely is another intelligent life, could be far more advanced than our own...but there is a great deal to overcome, both in concepts of what life is, drivers for communication or expansion, and the physical limitations...I don't think communication is as likely.

[ZXRamon]

Of course, I have doubts about it, the only reason I do see some truth in it is that the Mayan calendar has never erred, its always been right, so why not again? , we will see hopefully.

[55Beaphable]

Thanks I really appreciate your input. Perhaps instead of being so daft and simply posting "it is worthless" you should sit at think about it. I posted this because it interests me. Instead of grabbing on by these "I saw it I swear I did" stories, some of us like to take a mathematical approach to the idea of intelligent life in the galaxy. Making informed guesses about variables in the equation is no more "useless" than the stories about astronauts "seeing" alien spacecraft. Each has it's own place. Unfortunately, you don't seem to understand that. It's really too bad for you.

I bet my ass that i´ve thought about this more than you have.
I don´t even understand why you´re being so ****ish about my comment.
What i stated was merly a FAKT that even Seti heads Jill Tarter and Seth Showstak agree with.
But thanks for being a total ****.

[MightyMasc]

I estimated about 225 civilizations with

Rate of star formation in the galaxy = 6 (well accepted)
Fraction of starts with planets = .2
Number of earth like planets/star = 1
Fraction of earth like planets where life develops = .5
Fraction where intelligent life develops = 1
Fraction where communication develops = .75
Lifetime of civilization after reaching radio communication = 500

Of course, it's all just an estimate.

But it's a silly estimate. It's not even remotely possible that the fraction of Earth-life planets where life develops into "intelligent life" is 100%. Your estimates go wonky after the second line anyway - you're basically saying that every solar system with planets will have an Earth-like planet, with a 50% chance of intelligent life having developed on them.

[Adeniinteme]

I just really want to know where all these "informed" guesses are coming from. I'm not going to lie, my guess was pulled directly from my ***.

[ElcinBoris]

But it's a silly estimate. It's not even remotely possible that the fraction of Earth-life planets where life develops into "intelligent life" is 100%. Your estimates go wonky after the second line anyway - you're basically saying that every solar system with planets will have an Earth-like planet, with a 50% chance of intelligent life having developed on them.

i agree. Just because your galaxy has certain statistics, doesnt mean the rest of the universe will have the same. We can find universes with no life at all i bet too... Statistics are very stupid for things we dont know about