[FBtquXT8]

While the NYTimes has faltered quite considerably, it has chosen to publish a prediction from a US Green Beret who masterminded COIN (counterinsurgency) doctrines for the US and Russian as well as NATO forces.

In this interview, he sees the Chechen Muslim resistance to Russian imperial dominion as increasing and will likely increase leading up to the 2014 Olympics in Sochi Russia.


Knowing that the North Caucasus can be woefully unpredictable, we’ll dare to ask, and put you on the spot: What do you expect for the next year or two in the region?

A.I predict that the insurgents will increase attacks by 6-8% in 2012 and another 8-10% in the first half of 2013. Then we’ll see one of two things — either a precipitous drop or a huge spike in the number of attacks leading up to the Sochi Olympics in 2014. The level of violence in the last half of 2013 will be an indicator of the Emirate’s [the rebels] objectives for the Olympics; if they want to create a spectacular terrorist attack, then attacks in the last half of 2013 will decrease, if they want to embarrass the Russians and disrupt the Olympics ahead of time (causing events to be cancelled or athletes to avoid the games because of security threats), then I think we’ll see an increase in attacks in the Sochi area.

http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/20/author-qa-the-insurgency-in-chechnya-and-the-north-caucasus/?ref=middleeast