[Paul Bunyan]

The British publication, Sunday Times, has attributed a quote to an Israeli official, thought to be Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, in which it was said that in case Israel comes under attack by Hezbullah using missiles supplied by Syria, several things will occur:

- Israel will 'send Syria back to the Stone Age', as it would destroy Syria's power stations, gasoline supplies, ports, as well as civilian and military infrastructure.

- Israel will target Syrian president Assad specifically, his family, and the rest of Syria's leading political figures who are associated with Assad's regime. In Israel's estimation, Assad's regime would be toppled.

- Israel now regards Hezbullah as a division of the Syrian army, as this is the first tie in history that a country (Syria) has armed a terrorist organization with ballistic missiles. I can only imagine the extent of retaliation against Lebanon, as well.

Lately, there have been new threats by a publicly announced military alliance among Hezbullah, Syria, and Iran.

It is, therefore, very likely that the next war, which might be inevitable, might include a much more complex and all-out war that the last Lebanon war. In the last war, Israel refrained from striking back at Lebanon, because that was before the Lebanese government and army merged with Hezbullah. Israel also did not strike Syria, even though its war planes overflew Assad's palace in Damascus as a warning to Syria not to get involved.

I should also point out that Israel would take a lot of damage to its civilian population centers, as a result of combined Syrian, Lebanese, Hamas, and maybe even Iranian strikes targeting Israel's population centers. In the past few weeks there have been direct threats from Hezbullah and Syria to strike Israel's civilian population.

Is this how the next Mideast war will unfold? What would be the role of the West Bank Palestinians, and Israel's Arab population?

[9mm_fan]

...I should also point out that Israel would take a lot of damage to its civilian population centers, as a result of combined Syrian, Lebanese, Hamas, and maybe even Iranian strikes targeting Israel's population centers....Is this how the next Mideast war will unfold? What would be the role of the West Bank Palestinians, and Israel's Arab population?

I wouldn't count out Turkish involvement as well.

Should Iran play an overt role, that would be the perfect opportunity to eliminate their nuclear program with extreme prejudice.

Should Israel's Arab population become a serious fifth column threat, they might be commemorating another Nakba from outside Eretz Israel each year.

[LottiFurmann]

I wouldn't count out Turkish involvement as well.

Should Iran play an overt role, that would be the perfect opportunity to eliminate their nuclear program with extreme prejudice.

Should Israel's Arab population become a serious fifth column threat, they might be commemorating another Nakba from outside Eretz Israel each year.

You're probably correct about Turkey, which could potentially allow Iran to use Turkish airspace to reach Syria then Israel while avoiding the American-patrolled Iraqi airspace.

But I'm still not convinced that Israel has the military capability to eliminate the Iranian nuclear sites (unfortunately). That would require cooperation from the American forces stationed in the Gulf. With Obama as commander-in-chief that's highly unlikely to happen.

I'm also not sure that Israel would ever have the guts to transfer the Arabs enemies out of Israel in any significant numbers (also unfortunately). If Israel would send its Arab population into Gaza, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia for example, then Middle East peace could finally happen.

At best, in the next war, Israel could destroy much of the Syrian infrastructure, weaken or maybe even eliminate the current Syrian regime and its institutions (not for sure), and destroy much of Lebanon's infrastructure. I'm not sure that there would be all that much to be gained, since many Arabs are already used to living in stone-age-like conditions.

I wonder what I would really take these days for Israel to form a real deterrent against Arab terrorism.

[Beerinkol]

BTW - Just wanted to say what a great job Avigdor Lieberman has been doing as FM. He may not be a typical ass-kissing double-talking diplomat, but he's definitely the best Israel has to offer in a long time. He would be perfect if he could speak English as well as Netanyahu.

[Paul Bunyan]

...But I'm still not convinced that Israel has the military capability to eliminate the Iranian nuclear sites (unfortunately). That would require cooperation from the American forces stationed in the Gulf. With Obama as commander-in-chief that's highly unlikely to happen...

I've heard rumors that the Saudis offered to let Israel use their airspace. They don't want a nuclear Iran either.

Also...

TEL NOF AIR FORCE BASE, Israel — Israel's air force on Sunday introduced a fleet of huge pilotless planes that can remain in the air for a full day and fly as far as the Persian Gulf, putting rival Iran within its range.

The Heron TP drones have a wingspan of 86 feet (26 meters), making them the size of Boeing 737 passenger jets and the largest unmanned aircraft in Israel's military. The planes can fly at least 20 consecutive hours and are primarily used for surveillance and carrying diverse payloads.

At the fleet's inauguration ceremony at a sprawling air base in central Israel, the drone dwarfed an F-15 fighter jet parked beside it. The unmanned plane resembles its predecessor, the Heron, but can fly higher, reaching an altitude of more than 40,000 feet (12,000 meters), and remain in the air longer.

"With the inauguration of the Heron TP, we are realizing the air force's dream," said Brig. Gen. Amikam Norkin, head of the base that will operate the drones. "The Heron TP is a technological and operational breakthrough."

Israeli officials refused to say how large the new fleet is or whether the planes were designed for use against Iran, but stressed it was versatile and could adapt to new missions.(continued)

source: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2456285/posts

The Heron is 43 feet long with a wingspan of 85 feet, or about that of a Boeing 737. Its range is an astounding 5,000 miles (or deep into Iran and back twice). Its weapons payload can be 4,000 pounds, nearly the weight of America's much-ballyhooed Reaper UAV. source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keith-..._b_538824.html

[NeroASERCH]

Well they can't overfly Syrian AA batteries. At least that's not a capability anyone knows about. I'm not so sure Jordan can shoot them down or would try to though. Of course Obama isn't going to let them fly over Iraq. I don't know as Saudi overflight permissions are required. I wouldn't give them the satisfaction and the opportunity to turn around and use it against them later on, which they would. Saudi Arabia operates 3 American AWACS platforms that could track them. Giving them that power is silly. Better to rely on the Heron's range and fly them around the Saudi peninsula past Hormuz and into Iran that way. But in a strategic sense, to do what? There is no strategic capability that the IAF has that can make a real difference in Iran's program.

[Peptobismol]

Dayag, glad to hear about the new Herons.

Israel definitely has the ability to drop bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities through a variety of means. They can even land small task forces on Iranian soil. But I'm not convinced that these limited operations will eliminate the Iranian capabilities. Sure, Iran may lose some reactors and some other technology but their nuclear program will survive and will be back in action very quickly.

To eliminate it completely the US is needed to destroy the Revolutionary Guards, and that will start the process of the people of Iran toppling their Islamist government and a more moderate one put in place. The Iranians will then be given peaceful nuclear power plants for energy production, etc., and will no longer spend their limited resources to provide weapons for Hamas and Hezbullah. Only the US is capable of that, not Israel.

As for Syria, though, Israel can definitely make good on the threat to send them back to the stone age -- at least temporarily. There will be a high price to pay, though, as Hamas, Hezbullah and Syria all rain down Russian and Iranian missiles on Israeli civilians.

[Lillie_Steins]

Syria and Lebannon will surrender if attacked and Hezbollah won't.

Better we get proof now and send the Syrians a message.

I agree that Hezbullah won't surrender and won't stop firing rockets and missiles into Israeli towns unless the Lebanese government orders them to do so and moves in troops to the Hezbullah-controlled towns. But that may cause a disintegration of Lebanon, so I'm not sure the Lebanese army (which is anyway composed of at least 30% Hezbullah operatives) will be willing to confront Hezbullah.

In statements I've seen from Hezbullah in the past week or so, everyone understands that the next war will be for much higher stakes than the last, meaning each side will attempt to cause lot more damage to the other than before.

In the past, even Hezbullah alone was able to cause major damage to Northern Israel towns. It stands to reason that Syria has at least that much capability and more. Israel will have to basically destroy their military and political command structure very quickly, then reach a cease-fire with the remaining heads of the Syrian military which might very well wind up taking control of the country if there is total chaos, which is likely.

[S.T.D.]

Well they can't overfly Syrian AA batteries.

Why wouldnt we take out Syrian AA batteries in the process? Fly over Kurdistan (we know that the Kurds will be rooting for us) etc. Not that I'm for the bombing run on Iran... since it will accomplish little ultimately. I'd rather take out Syria, that is to say: the Assad/Alawi regime. That is the first lynch pin we need removed immediately if not sooner. In fact if I were the top brass I'd instigate a war with the hezzies just in order to take out Syria. No Syria... massive set back to Mullah interests.

[9mm_fan]

I'd rather take out Syria, that is to say: the Assad/Alawi regime. That is the first lynch pin we need removed immediately if not sooner.

True. But Israel must have a plan to fill the political vacancy that would be left with Assad gone. I would most like to see whatever remains of the Syrian military take control there. Otherwise, al Qaeda (or maybe even Hezbullah/Iran) will be setting up shop right opposite the Golan.

[Lt_Apple]

True. But Israel must have a plan to fill the political vacancy that would be left with Assad gone. I would most like to see whatever remains of the Syrian military take control there. Otherwise, al Qaeda (or maybe even Hezbullah/Iran) will be setting up shop right opposite the Golan.

If it comes to a major war, we need to occupy the land between the Golan and Damascus to be traded later to Syria for peace on the current border.

[Ifroham4]

Why wouldnt we take out Syrian AA batteries in the process?

UAVs don't/can't do that.

[TorryJens]

If it comes to a major war, we need to occupy the land between the Golan and Damascus to be traded later to Syria for peace on the current border.

Very good point!

[radikal]

UAVs don't/can't do that.

Not yet, but...

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) is developing a loitering killer drone that has the capability to hunt illusive ground targets, such as anti-aircraft systems and mobile or concealed ballistic missile launchers. This expendable unmanned aerial vehicles, known as Harop, can be launched over a suspected area without specifically acquiring a specific target. Designed to reach targets at distances over 1,000km away, the UAV loiter over a suspected area for hours, spot target as they are exposed before activation and attack them immediately. IAI is already negotiating potential export sales of the weapon with India and Turkey. The company exposed the system for the first time in India, before the Aero-India 2009 airshow.

Harop resembles an earlier IAI's 'suicide drone' known as Harpy. The main differences are the outer wing extensions, the longer nose and canard foreplane. Like Harpy, Harrop is launched from a vehicle-mounted container. Harop augments the Harpy's RF seeker with an electro-optical sensor, allowing it to acquire and pursue non emitting targets and moving targets, as well as 'quit' targets such as shut-down radars. As a loitering weapon, Harop can also be used against suspected ballistic missile sites, where target missile silos and shelters as they are opened before firing source: http://defense-update.com/products/h/harop.html