[beepbeet]

The question has always been, 'just who is in charge of the nuclear program?' The answer is, a secret agency.

http://blog.z-word.com/2010/01/irans...ncy/#more-1510

quoting Spiegel

[Amfdaaandhaq]

The followup to this is that Der Spiegel is now saying that Iran could complete a gadget by the end of the year. For those of you not in the business a gadget is a nondeployable non weaponized nuclear device. More like a lab experiment that tests the feasibility of a nuclear weapon basic design and engineering. A test 'bomb'.


http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/135697

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...839460,00.html

This is consistent with public intelligence estimates made 5 years ago and again 3 years and again 2 years ago. Assuming that a gadget works then Iran is likely 2 years away at that point, from being able to weaponize a device sufficiently to place it on a large booster. Whether that's sufficient to place it on a booster that Iran has at their disposal is a guess. A weapon would have to weigh less than 750 kg to fit on a missile that Iran has and to able to reach Israel. A larger missile would speed the process, but it's unlikely that Iran would have a much larger lifter any time soon.

Of course any state has to husband their resources. Iran would logically have to hold back a significant portion of their nuclear material. If a gadget works, they need to build a weapon. If it doesn't work, they have to go back to the drawing board.