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Old 06-17-2011, 12:22 PM   #1
KimLinbert

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Default Wimbledon Mens Main Draw
TOP HALF

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) v Michael Russell USA
Pablo Andujar ESP v Ryan Sweeting USA
Gilles Muller LUX v Tommy Haas GER
Fabio Fognini ITA v Milos Raonic CAN (31)

Juan Martin Del Potro ARG (24) v Qualifier
Olivier Rochus BEL v Qualifier
Frederico Gil POR v Dudi Sela ISR
Qualifier v Gilles Simon FRA (15)

Mardy Fish USA (10) v Marcel Granollers ESP
Philipp Kohlschreiber GER v Denis Istomin UZB
Robin Haase NED v Pere Riba ESP
Radek Stepanek CZE v Fernando Verdasco ESP (21)

Juan Ignacio Chela ARG (25) v Qualifier
Donald Young USA v Alex Bogomolov Jr. USA
Qualifier v Julien Benneteau FRA
Filippo Volandri ITA v Tomas Berdych CZE (6)


Andy Murray GBR (4) v Daniel Gimeno-Traver ESP
Tobias Kamke GER v Blaz Kavcic SLO
Sergiy Stakhovsky UKR v Daniel Cox GBR
Ivan Ljubicic CRO v Marin Cilic CRO (27)

Richard Gasquet FRA (17) v Santiago Giraldo COL
Igor Kunitsyn RUS v Qualifier
Qualifier v Qualifier
Potito Starace ITA v Stanislas Wawrinka SUI (14)

Gael Monfils FRA (9) v Matthias Bachinger GER
Qualifier v Robert Kendrick USA
Arnaud Clement FRA v Qualifier
Ivo Karlovic CRO v Janko Tipsarevic SRB (23)

Thomaz Bellucci BRA (30) v Rainer Schuettler GER
Feliciano Lopez ESP v Michael Berrer GER
Jaroslav Pospisil CZE v Victor Hanescu ROU
Qualifier v Andy Roddick USA (8)

BOTTOM HALF

David Ferrer ESP (7) v Benoit Paire FRA
Ivan Dodig CRO v Qualifier
Carlos Berlocq ARG v Qualifier
Andrey Golubev KAZ v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez ESP (26)

Alexandr Dolgopolov UKR (22) v Fernando Gonzalez CHI
Qqualifier v Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo ESP
Grigor Dimitrov BUL v Qualifier
Qualifier v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12)

Nicolas Almagro ESP (16) v Jarkko Nieminen FIN
John Isner USA v Nicolas Mahut FRA
Somdev Devvarman IND v Denis Gremelmayr GER
Juan Monaco ARG v Mikhail Youzhny RUS (18)

David Nalbandian ARG (28) v Julian Reister GER
Florent Serra FRA v Andreas Haider-Maurer AUT
Adrian Mannarino FRA v Qualifier
Mikhail Kukushkin KAZ v Roger Federer SUI (3)


Robin Soderling SWE (5)
v Philipp Petzschner GER
Kei Nishikori JPN v Lleyton Hewitt AUS
Igor Andreev RUS v Teymuraz Gabashvili RUS
Qualifier v Nikolay Davydenko RUS (29)

Florian Mayer GER (20) v Daniel Evans GBR
Xavier Malisse BEL v Mischa Zverev GER
Ernests Gulbis LAT v Dmitry Tursunov RUS
Alejandro Falla COL v Jurgen Melzer AUT (11)

Viktor Troicki SRB (13) v Maximo Gonzalez ARG
Yen-Hsun Lu TPE v Tommy Robredo ESP
Ricardo Mello BRA v Qualifier
James Ward GBR v Michael Llodra FRA (19)

Marcos Baghdatis CYP (32) v James Blake USA
Andreas Seppi ITA v Albert Montanes ESP
Kevin Anderson RSA v Illya Marchenko UKR
Jeremy Chardy FRA v Novak Djokovic SRB (2)
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Old 06-17-2011, 12:36 PM   #2
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Isner-Mahut first round again. Classic!
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Old 06-17-2011, 12:36 PM   #3
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Roger and Rafa on opposite halves (Rafa has Murray, Roger has Djokovic).

Rafa potentially has Raonic and Delpo (3rd round and R. of 16) - could be interesting!
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Old 06-17-2011, 02:38 PM   #4
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Isner-Mahut first round again. Classic!


What were the chances?
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Old 06-17-2011, 03:21 PM   #5
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What were the chances?
127-1, I think.
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Old 06-17-2011, 03:44 PM   #6
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They'll have to put them on Court 18... right?
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Old 06-17-2011, 05:09 PM   #7
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Something's a wee bit fishy on the Isner-Mahut front...
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Old 06-17-2011, 05:13 PM   #8
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Roger and Rafa on opposite halves (Rafa has Murray, Roger has Djokovic).

Rafa potentially has Raonic and Delpo (3rd round and R. of 16) - could be interesting!
Chances of Delpo actually making the R16: about 1%.
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Old 06-17-2011, 05:59 PM   #9
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OMG, I missed Isner-Mahut on the first look. I hope they get Lahyani to umpire. But putting it on Ct 18 would be just super cruel.
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Old 06-17-2011, 07:53 PM   #10
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OMG, I missed Isner-Mahut on the first look. I hope they get Lahyani to umpire. But putting it on Ct 18 would be just super cruel.
Go big or go home! I'm all for it being totally deja-vu!
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Old 06-17-2011, 09:38 PM   #11
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127-1, I think.
Probably even less then that...since we know that no seeded players will play each other it's a bit less likely if you are an unseeded player to face another unseeded player. (I think)
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Old 06-17-2011, 10:47 PM   #12
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Okay, so I'm probably off somewhere, but these are my thoughts on the I/M probability...

We know that the draw is 128, but since both are unseeded, we know there are 32 places where they won't be, leaving 96.

Now, I'm sure the probability would shift depending on when they were placed, but let's say Isner was the first person they placed. There are 96 vacant spots, but 32 of them yield seeds, which will prohibit the matchup. With my very rudimentary probability skills, I would say that Isner has a 2 in 3 chance of nabbing one of the unseeded/unseeded matchups.

Then, let's say Mahut was the next to be drawn. He would now need to be placed in the only spot that yields Isner as a first-round opponent, so he has a 1 in 95 chance of getting that spot.

If you multiply the two probabilities together, you get 2 in 290, or 1 in 145 odds that the matchup happens.

Note: I am not a math person, and I'm sure there are other variables that I'm not taking into consideration, but this might just be one way to look at it.

Sorry to have bored you.
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Old 06-17-2011, 10:56 PM   #13
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Bored me? You just proved my theory right that it was slightly less likely by doing the math I was too lazy to do
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Old 06-17-2011, 11:00 PM   #14
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What were the chances?
127-1, I think.


::

So Andy and Roger will meet again in the final, at which time Roger will beat Andy in another extended 5th set tiebreak. That will send me into a chain-smoking, Rockstar-drinking, chocolate-eating FRENZY OF MAD PROPORTIONS!!!



(and..... breathe.)
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Old 06-17-2011, 11:18 PM   #15
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A lot way to look at it, here another one



http://allballsallowed.wordpress.com/
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Old 06-17-2011, 11:26 PM   #16
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So it's 1 in the 140's at least
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Old 06-17-2011, 11:27 PM   #17
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I don't care what people say! Revenge of the Nerds was one of the bestest films ever!
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Old 06-17-2011, 11:45 PM   #18
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Ha! Good one!
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Old 06-17-2011, 11:49 PM   #19
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The probability that Isner and Mahut would draw each other again in this year's Wimbledon first round -- given that they were both unseeded -- was 0.7 percent, which is 7 in 1,000 or about 1 in 143, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Article here
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Old 06-17-2011, 11:58 PM   #20
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No consensus on the number....
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