[Fegasderty]

Maybe we can dig a tunnel from here all the way underneath Iran's nuclear facilities, fill it up with dyanamite and boom.

[MannoFr]

It will never happen.

[radikal]

Israel would literally have to be insane to attack Iran at George Bush's request. If Bush thinks it's so 'intolerable' then he should do something since clearly Israel would suffer the consequences anyhow. At worst the US would get drawn into another regional conflict.

We tend to want to think that somehow Iran is different, that they're some massive magical force unlike Iraq and that they (Iran) have this incredible military force. That's simply not the case. But sadly it's simply not relevant either.

What is relevant is that Europe and Russia have already decided that Iran shall have nuclear weapons - they're merely pretending about how best to cover that effort with some kind of plausibe deniability. The IAEA is nothing more than window dressing so the EU can claim they had good intentions after the fact. But the fact is, Iran will have a fully functioning nuclear capability in no more than 3 years and possibly less. In fact if I had to gamble I'd say that the EU is already working with Iran on developing all of the other technologies such as electronics, targetting, manufacturing, telemetry. The Russian ploy to develop 5 or 6 'peaceful use' nuclear power plants is a red herring since Iran is already working with Pakistan to develop the nuclear technology. The Russian power plants and EU technology will serve to weaponize those Pakistani derived lab experiments.

One might ask why would Europe do this? I think the clearest answers are:

The EU views Iranian threats in terms of exporting the Islamic Revolution through terrorism and low level warfare. The EU position is that Iran is not likely to use nuclear weapons against the EU or major EU partners in order to further the Islamic Revolution.

Israel on the other hand is entirely expendable. In fact Israel's destruction fits in rather well with the EU's strategic doctrine of Arabo-Islamic appeasement at arms' length.

The EU figures that a weaponized nuclear capability is a 'safer' bet than a terrorist with a crude nuke in a box truck. EU technology will serve to weaponize nuclear tech which amounts to rendering devices smaller, more reliable, more predictable, requiring less fissile material. This means that Iran would be more likely to posit nuclear weapons as a 'standard' strategic deployable threat as opposed to rogue threats.

Cold War - 2, the new proxy. The EU will effectively set up the Iranian strategic nuclear threat as the new stratefic opponent to the US in order to bolster its (EU) own strategic opposition to the US. Moreover, as we already see the US has few effective intelligence assets in the Arab/Farsi world to carry on an effective covert network against it or its EU sponsors. This is the EU's most effective articulation of their opposition to a unipolar world lead by the US. The EU can't confront the US directly so it will use Iran as a foil for that. It will also attempt to pry Pakistan lose from the Us orbit by destabilizing the government there and leading to the eventual success of Islamic fundamentalists there. This will tend to place further stress on US involvement in west Asia, where it is hoped that the US will eventually withdraw. To the EU, a nuclear armed fundamentalist middle east/west Asia is preferable to US influence there, to say nothing of the presence of Jews in Israel which is anathema to the political goals of the EU in the region as well.

The Wahabi see-saw. Last but not least the EU will bolster the other theofcratic regime in the region, Iran in opposition to the Saudis. Neither state can affford either a strong secular Iraq nor a weak theocratic opponent in the region. The balance is terror(ism) must be maintained. In addition, the Iranians have zero compunctions to squashing their own internal problems absolutely so in a race to see which one, Saudi Arabia or Iran will survive their own internal problems, the Iranians will win. This will result in a progressive destruction of Saudi society and political strength until the ruling family is exterminated and the entire country is transferred to Wahabi- Osma aligned politcal control. Not only may could this seriously cripple world oil markets and probably result in a severe protracted decline of the US economy it would provide another front from which the US will retreat. Again, the EU and the region itself would rather see a severely repressive Taleban like Saudi Arabia than it accepts US relationships with the current Saudi regime.

[brraverishhh]

Iran with Nukes is like a baby with a Ketchup spray bottle; either way it's gona be a mess.

[tgs]

.....it may be a fundamentalist country but it is not supporting terror against the Western world.

I am now utterly convinced that taco, if not all fronce, is from another planet.

[MannoFr]

Didn't they say that Iraq would just use an Israeli attack as pretense to bomb Israel? Hmm...

Taco just wants Iran to have nukes in the hope that they would be used to kill Jews and Israelis.

Of course, what he should realize, but doesn't, is the more likely place for that bomb to end up, given relative access to entry into countries and security precautions - would be EUROPE - likely via train to France or Germany.

Oh well, let the Europeans appease away. It will be their nuclear barbacue.

[tgs]

>>[QUOTE=takeo]if Israel attacks Iran Iran would use it as an excuse to bomb Israel as well, it feels relatively secure since Israel can not reach Iran overland. It would also harm Israel's relations with the EU, its most important trade partner, even further.