[DoniandaCoado]

In another thread I made a comment that I believe that the Korean peninsula is the most likely place for WW3 to start.


Basically I see the NK trying to invade SK with conventional weapons, thinking that having nukes will prevent a massive US and western response to stop them. This is a miscalculation on their part and sooner or later when faced with a conventional defeat on the battlefield they Nuke Seoul and or a West Coast US city. China steps in and WW3 starts between the West and China. Russia stays out of it for a while and then comes in on the side of the west near the end in a territorial grab much like they did in the Pacific Theater at the end of WW2.

The other possibility in the same region would be Taiwan. They could try to assert full independence from the mainland. That would lead to a mainland response and the US would possibly step in to assist Taiwan’s independence.

Another possibility is Iran invades Iraq and the US and the west step in. That is a low probability of involving the complete world as there is no second major power ready to step in.

Same if the initial battles were in Pakistan and India. I see a possibility of a regional nuclear war there but the two sides do not have enough nukes to make a difference. The only possibility would be China trying to make a land grab and the West trying to keep them out.

There will be local wars in Africa and possibly South America but people simply don’t give much of a shit about these places. This could change if major resources ( especially huge reserves of oil) were found.

The last option is Europe. This was the big possibility during the cold war but IMHO WW3 will be between China and the west and Europe is simply too far from China to be where it would start.

[eropiereetuekm]

WW III has been going on for a while, now.

[Sakkola]

In another thread I made a comment that I believe that the Korean peninsula is the most likely place for WW3 to start.


Basically I see the NK trying to invade SK with conventional weapons, thinking that having nukes will prevent a massive US and western response to stop them. This is a miscalculation on their part and sooner or later when faced with a conventional defeat on the battlefield they Nuke Seoul and or a West Coast US city. China steps in and WW3 starts between the West and China. Russia stays out of it for a while and then comes in on the side of the west near the end in a territorial grab much like they did in the Pacific Theater at the end of WW2.

The other possibility in the same region would be Taiwan. They could try to assert full independence from the mainland. That would lead to a mainland response and the US would possibly step in to assist Taiwan’s independence.

Another possibility is Iran invades Iraq and the US and the west step in. That is a low probability of involving the complete world as there is no second major power ready to step in.

Same if the initial battles were in Pakistan and India. I see a possibility of a regional nuclear war there but the two sides do not have enough nukes to make a difference. The only possibility would be China trying to make a land grab and the West trying to keep them out.

There will be local wars in Africa and possibly South America but people simply don’t give much of a shit about these places. This could change if major resources ( especially huge reserves of oil) were found.

The last option is Europe. This was the big possibility during the cold war but IMHO WW3 will be between China and the west and Europe is simply too far from China to be where it would start.

A Let's take it one step at a time: Taiwan belongs to China (in their opinion) "It certainly doesn't belong to us" Renege on treaties and let them have it.

B North Korea is important to China in many ways. But certainly not enough to involve itself in a nuclear war over.(Unless we interfere). They get Taiwan if they contain North Korea.

C Russia has suffered staggering war losses in WWII and it is in their best interest to side with the West. And they will.

D Pakistan and India have been at each others throats since the split leave them alone.

E China, Russia the U.S. and Western Europe jointly have the power to rule the world. Pass the word to Israel they have one year to make peace with their neighbors or that power will be executed.

There will be no WWIII in our time !

[b91ZmxzX]

WW III has been going on for a while, now.

Care to elaborate?

[Justlovemy]

I chose "Other" because you left out Israel.

[Galinastva]

A Let's take it one step at a time: Taiwan belongs to China (in their opinion) "It certainly doesn't belong to us" Renege on treaties and let them have it.

Renege on the treaties? Wow. With friends like you, one would scarcely have need of enemies.

[WapSaibian]

....

There will be no WWIII in our time !

I sincerely hope that you are right. I have seen war on a small scale and do not want to see it on a large scale.

[Ccddfergt]

I honestly don't think the big players care enough about places like Africa, Pakistan, India, Taiwan, Korea, South America, most of those mentioned. They are just not important enough to start risking one's own skin for.

U might see some small conflicts, no bigger than what already took place in kashmir or chechenia, a whole lot more sabre rattling. But it'd be foolish to think US or China or Russia is going to risk total annihilation for places like the above. They would have to be very silly.

[MaigicyuNinia]

Renege on the treaties? Wow. With friends like you, one would scarcely have need of enemies.

Do you prefer friends like this ?



The impact of the west was also felt for the first time in China. Great Britain especially was interested in trading with China for silk and tea. However, the British did not have anything that was easy to import to China until they began importing opium. This was devastating to China. Many became addicted to opium, and land that had previously been used for food began to be used to produce opium. Also, a large amount of Chinese money left the country in payment for the opium. Finally, in 1839 A.D. the opium trade was abolished. This set off a war with Great Britain that came to be known as the Opium Wars, and in 1842 A.D., China was forced to sign a treaty in which Great Britain received Hong Kong, and ports were opened to European trade. The terms of this treaty were not fully carried out by either side, and in 1857 A.D., fighting again broke out. The British again won and the Chinese were forced to grant more privileges to the British, that virtually turned China into a British colony.


Concept Paper: U.S. Involvement in Opium Trade With China
Generally, the opium trade which so negatively affected China is recalled as a British outrage. Historians Geoffrey Ward and Fredric D. Grant (1986) pointed out however, that American mercantile interests also benefited significantly from the opium trade, including a young man named Warren Delano, whose grandson, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, would ultimately become president of the United States. It is the purpose of this concept paper to identify, somewhat broadly, American involvement in the Indo-China opium trade and to consider the relative extent of American activity vis-a-vis that of the more dominant British. It will be argued that whereas individual American businessmen and traders profited significantly from this trade and while the United States government participated in protecting those interests to some degree, American involvement in the opium trade was far less significant than that of the British.
Historian Jonathan D. Spence (1990) offered an excellent overview of the Indo-China opium trade and stated that in the nineteenth century, the British were the dominant beneficiaries of this trade which moved opium grown in India (controlled by the British (to consumers in China via the East India Company. This British mercantile group established a monopoly for the purchase of Indian opium and then sold licenses to trade in opium to selected Western merchants known


The QING Dynasty ruled China and Formosa (Taiwan) for over 200 years. (1683-1895) Nearly as long as the USA is old. We consider all 50 states to belong to USA.

The treaty was in error !

[tabcdyop]

I chose "Other" because you left out Israel.

How do you see WW3 starting over/in Israel?

Personally they have been fighting there since 1948 and it has never escalated outside the region so I don’t see it escalating to WW3 anytime in the future.

[LoloLibia]

.... But it'd be foolish to think US or China or Russia is going to risk total annihilation for places like the above. They would have to be very silly.

Just as silly as WW1 starting over the assassination of an Archduke who was so disliked that most of his family did not go to his funeral?

Wars often start over silly things and then escalate because neither side wants to look weak and back down.

How do you see it starting, assuming that you think that it will happen?

[S.T.D.]

World Wars are a time-honored European tradition. I'm not sure anyone else can properly start one.....

[Kdgjhytiy]

not going to happen.

edit: at least not with the current geopolitical landscape in place.

[dodsCooggipsehome]

If two, smaller powers serve as the spark they will each need to be backed by a seperate major power. India/Pakistan does not fall into that category, and I don't think China is willing to take a thrashing for the sake of North Korea.

[Kingerix]

Just as silly as WW1 starting over the assassination of an Archduke who was so disliked that most of his family did not go to his funeral?

Wars often start over silly things and then escalate because neither side wants to look weak and back down.

How do you see it starting, assuming that you think that it will happen?

Well, a simple difference to World War 1 (and former times in general) is the military situation and the ecconomic situation.

In the past there always have been a bunch of empires with at least almost equaly capable war machines.
The war didn't start for silly reasons. The assasination (terrorism) was just the trigger. To believe that a global power starts a full scale war simply due to something like an assasination is naive.
The war started because the biggest ecconomic power of the time wanted to claim it's leading position on the world stage by military means. The two declining empires that joined in on that wanted to restore their status.
They went to war because they expected to reach a superiour position by winning it and they had the military capability to do so.

Without economic goals and the military capacity there would not have been a war.

Today the only empire with the military capability to wage war on a global scale is the US... so the US would be the onlyone capable to escalate a conflict to a world war.

Currently there are no ecconomic reasons nor military capabilites in China to start a big conflict. That's also the reason why North Korea won't do anything... if they attack the South they won't get help by China, because China trades way more stuff with South Korea then it does with the North.

[egoldhyip]

Today the only empire with the military capability to wage war on a global scale is the US... so the US would be the onlyone capable to escalate a conflict to a world war.

Exactly right. Today not even Russia could hope to support a world war effort.

[expomeHattePe]

We fought and won WWIII... otherwise known as "The Cold War"

We have been fighting WWIV ever since.

World War IV [World War 4]

[ftqwhbvxlcfop]

Just as silly as WW1 starting over the assassination of an Archduke who was so disliked that most of his family did not go to his funeral?

Wars often start over silly things and then escalate because neither side wants to look weak and back down.

How do you see it starting, assuming that you think that it will happen?

There were nukes back in WW1? Your analogy is flawed.

And it did not start over some petty dislikes for Franz Ferdinand. It started because major imperial powers in Europe were grabbing land off neighboring countries, from Bosnia all the way to Alsace Lorraine while their capitalist industrialists used the arm race to rake up massive profit while serving rivaling nations all at the same time.

U might as well tell me WW2 started because Hitler didn't like Poles. Seeing things that way, it is no surprise you ask questions like the op.

[Marc Spilkintin]

Easy people. Keep it civil and not personal.

[Old-old-Ivy]

We fought and won WWIII... otherwise known as "The Cold War"

We have been fighting WWIV ever since.

World War IV [World War 4]

We're on WW 5 or 6 by the reasoning that gives us WW4 as defined through the link.

WW1- Colonial Wars
WW2- Napoleonic Wars
WW3- The War to End All Wars
WW4- The Great Patriotic War
WW5- The Cold War
WW6- The war for the new world order.