[AndyPharmc]

China 'leaks' pictures of stealth fighter jet test run
China's first stealth fighter jet staged a runway test on Wednesday and could undergo its first flight on Thursday, according to Chinese media reports.
1:28PM GMT 05 Jan 2011

Both the English and Chinese language editions of the Global Times ran front-page articles on the leaked photos of a J-20 fighter, along with extensive reports on the buzz the pictures have generated overseas.

Photos of the plane appeared on unofficial military news websites and hobbyist blogs last week and were still viewable on Wednesday.

The Global Times did not comment on the authenticity of the pictures, but since the government wields extensive control over state media, the report's appearance and the fact that censors have not removed images from websites suggest a calculated move to leak the information into the public sphere.

That in turn would reflect the growing confidence of the traditionally secretive People's Liberation Army, which is pushing for greater influence and bigger budgets.
....
Chinese progress in that field calls into question U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates' decision to cap production of the F-22 Raptor stealth fighter at 187 planes. Supporters of the F-22 have warned of growing threats from China, as well as Russia, which has developed a stealth prototype that is already in the test flight stage.

Analysis of the J-20 photos shows it to be larger than either the Russian or U.S. planes, likely allowing it to fly further and carry heavier weapons. It also probably makes it less maneuverable. I also doubt that they have radar absorbent paint to match ours. Never the less, the proliferation of 5th generation fighters will only streach our meager stealth fighter force that much thinner.

[seodiary]

There are still many many questions about this bird not the least of all: what... or whose... engine are they using?

By way of comparison… The F-35A is rated a 31 ton, single engine fighter that is 15.7 meters (51.4 feet) long and with a 10.7 meter (35 foot) wingspan. The engine generates 12.7 ton (28,000 pounds) of thrust, or 19.5 (43,000) with afterburner.

The F-22 Raptor is rate at 21 tons that is 18.90 meters (62 ft 1 in feet) long and with a 13.56 meter (44 ft 6 in) wingspan. Its dual afterburning Pratt & Whitney F119-PW-100 turbofans incorporate pitch axis thrust vectoring, with a range of ±20 degrees. The maximum thrust is classified, though most sources place it at about 35,000 lbf (156 kN) per engine.Maximum speed, without external weapons, is estimated to be Mach 1.82 in supercruise mode

In contrast, the J-20 has two engines and appears to be 24 meters (75 feet) long and with a wingspan of 15 meters (46 feet). The engine for the J-20, the WS-15 is still in development. The prototype had afterburner thrust of 16.5 tons, although this was expected to hit 18.3 tons when development was complete. It is believed that the J-20 prototypes are powered by Russia AL31FU/117S engines, each with 14.5 tons of afterburner thrust. Two of these engines would give the 36-40 ton J-20 more power per ton than the F-35A.

China has yet to develop other F-35 technologies, like the AESA radar, highly efficient cockpit, stealth and software to tie everything together. Developing, or even copying, this tech is not easy. But the Chinese already know that, having decades of adapting stolen technology to their needs. Thus it appears that China is planning on having the J-20 ready for service by the end of the decade… 2018 or so. The key factor is their ability to develop or steal the needed technology by then. The J-20 appears to be less than an F-35 clone, and more of an F-35 type aircraft with pretensions to being an F-22. In any event, the J-20 is an attempt to develop some kind of 5th generation aircraft, complete with stealth.

Assume this bird flies… assume it is flight worthy now… today. They claim that they won’t be operational till 2018. Assume it’s really 2015.

We have 122 F-22s in service NOW… by 2015 we’ll likely have nex-gen (A, B, C variants) in service. Head to head… there would be no match… the F-22 would take it. The problem seen (by the Rand Corp among others) is getting the F-22 to the battle space. Logistics again will rule the day.

For those of you that don’t know…. The "first generation" jet fighters were those produced during World War II and through the late 1940s. The best examples of these are the U.S. F-86 and the Russian MiG-15. The second generation got going in the early 1950s, and produced aircraft like the U.S. F-104 and the Russian MiG-21. The third generation followed within a decade, producing the U.S. F-4 and the Russian MiG-23. The fourth generation arrived in the 1970s and 80s with the F-15, F-16, F-18, Russian MiG-29, Su-27 and French Mirage-2000. The fifth generation includes the F-22, F-35, and whatever the Russians and Chinese come up with. The Eurofighter and Rafale are often called Generation 4.5.

Russian fifth generation fighter developments were halted when the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991. Actually, all development work on new fighters, by everyone, slowed down in the 1990s. But work on the F-22, F-35, Eurofighter and Rafale continued, and those aircraft became, in roughly that order, the most advanced fighter aircraft available today. This fifth generation may come to be called the "last generation," after they are replaced by the second generation of pilotless combat aircraft (counting armed Predators and the like as the first).

[kKFB1BxX]

Thank you for that info. I appreciate it. Please take me the next step. Am I reading you right? The Chinese will be bringing a piloted aircraft to a drone battle, where drones do not have the limitations of G forces on the pilot? In other words are the Chinese bringing a flak jacket to a tank battle?

[en-druzhba]

Drones might not be limited by gs, but they still have to be flown by remote, and are vulnerable to jamming.

And we don't want the machines thinking for themselves.

[ffdfriendforurr]

It also probably makes it less maneuverable. I also doubt that they have radar absorbent paint to match ours. Never the less, the proliferation of 5th generation fighters will only streach our meager stealth fighter force that much thinner.

That is assuming this aircraft is truly 5th generation. When it comes to Chinese (and Russian) design we find they fall well short of where they claim.

[FliveGell]

Drones might not be limited by gs, but they still have to be flown by remote, and are vulnerable to jamming.

And we don't want the machines thinking for themselves.

I disagree. Target recognition and maneuvers are totally fine in AI. "thinking" is a LONG way off.

[Wheegiabe]

I disagree. Target recognition and maneuvers are totally fine in AI. "thinking" is a LONG way off.

ehhh, IMO, nothing beats a set of human eyes in the cockpit.

[scewLacysmazy]

ehhh, IMO, nothing beats a set of human eyes in the cockpit.

Sure, but when the target can do 14 G turns, that human's gonna have a problem.

[Aniplinipsync]

ehhh, IMO, nothing beats a set of human eyes in the cockpit.

That sounds good, but the experiences with visibility, 7+g turns, 360 degree fields of vision in every attitude, all at supersonic speeds is beyond the capabilities of the human neck. Add in that over-the-horizon enemies can be on you in seconds, and the take-away is that eyeballs just are inadequate to the task. When you see it, its way too late.

[pharmacologist30]

That sounds good, but the experiences with visibility, 7+g turns, 360 degree fields of vision in every attitude, all at supersonic speeds is beyond the capabilities of the human neck. Add in that over-the-horizon enemies can be on you in seconds, and the take-away is that eyeballs just are inadequate to the task. When you see it, its way too late.

You are being a little to simplistc here when it comes to the realites of modern aerial combat. Aircraft with live pilots are already to identify and engage targets they are not able to see with the naked eye.

I know a human pilot isn't going to be able to engage in the type of flying fighter drones are theoretically going to be able to pull off. Aside from that, I just think a human pilot will be much better able to make those important, judgment calls when over a target area or engaged in an air-to-air fight. Far better than a computer could, and far better than some guy flying the thing via remote control.

[Allorneadesee]

You are being a little to simplistc here when it comes to the realites of modern aerial combat. Aircraft with live pilots are already to identify and engage targets they are not able to see with the naked eye.

I know a human pilot isn't going to be able to engage in the type of flying fighter drones are theoretically going to be able to pull off. Aside from that, I just think a human pilot will be much better able to make those important, judgment calls when over a target area or engaged in an air-to-air fight. Far better than a computer could, and far better than some guy flying the thing via remote control.

Every reason to believe you, and agree. However, the problem is that that pilot's enemy will have used a much cheaper drone to knock him out of the sky long before he gets to the scene of the battle.

[chujwduperjadzi]

That is assuming this aircraft is truly 5th generation. When it comes to Chinese (and Russian) design we find they fall well short of where they claim.

I sat in on a discussion of this matter on another board I participate in.

A couple fighter pilots and an aerospace engineer disected the image of the plane piece-by-piece and came up with a number of physical reasons that this plane is, at best, 2nd grade stealth technology.

From what I gather (which is not to say from what I understand - because I didn't) the engines on that plane will light up heat seekers just like any other jet engine. They're not shrouded or baffeled in any way to reduce their signature.

Additionally, the canard wing configuration pretty much blows any attempt at stealth. We tried it and scrapped it because it just couldn't be done. There are physics behind why they don't work, but they lost me at that point.

Following that discusssion I'm pretty much convinced (for all that's worth) that this plane does not have a full stealth capability.

An old Tomcat would be putting missiles up this things ass form 150 miles out.

[Roker]

I sat in on a discussion of this matter on another board I participate in.

A couple fighter pilots and an aerospace engineer disected the image of the plane piece-by-piece and came up with a number of physical reasons that this plane is, at best, 2nd grade stealth technology.

From what I gather (which is not to say from what I understand - because I didn't) the engines on that plane will light up heat seekers just like any other jet engine. They're not shrouded or baffeled in any way to reduce their signature.

Additionally, the canard wing configuration pretty much blows any attempt at stealth. We tried it and scrapped it because it just couldn't be done. There are physics behind why they don't work, but they lost me at that point.

Following that discusssion I'm pretty much convinced (for all that's worth) that this plane does not have a full stealth capability.

An old Tomcat would be putting missiles up this things ass form 150 miles out.

China solves problems differently than the US. Time is an element in their planning. A hundred years is not a long time in their planning cycles. Clearly, China is way, way behind. This is a pretty major first step. By 2060 I suspect they will have a newer version, and by 2111 I suspect their aircraft will be awesome. Thats just China.

lol. otoh, they will have the best manned aircraft in an unmanned aircraft world.

[Sopzoozyren]

China solves problems differently than the US. Time is an element in their planning. A hundred years is not a long time in their planning cycles. Clearly, China is way, way behind. This is a pretty major first step. By 2060 I suspect they will have a newer version, and by 2111 I suspect their aircraft will be awesome. Thats just China.

lol. otoh, they will have the best manned aircraft in an unmanned aircraft world.

I'm thinking more along the lines of 2025.

Then they'll be going toe-to-toe with the West technologically in enough respects that when you throw in: Chinamen, Screaming, 1 Billion ea...

Kowtow is the word that comes to mind.

China today can't be compared to China at any time in her past.

For centuries they were doing just as you say.

But I know you've been paying enough attention to China to know that the quasi-capitalist industrial revolution they have going on over there is an immediate game changer.

China now is the United States 1942-1943 when the production lines were really running full-bore. Only their military-industrial complex has largely just been industrial to this point.

[VioletttaJosetta]

I'm thinking more along the lines of 2025.

Then they'll be going toe-to-toe with the West technologically in enough respects that when you throw in: Chinamen, Screaming, 1 Billion ea...

Kowtow is the word that comes to mind.

China today can't be compared to China at any time in her past.

For centuries they were doing just as you say.

But I know you've been paying enough attention to China to know that the quasi-capitalist industrial revolution they have going on over there is an immediate game changer.

China now is the United States 1942-1943 when the production lines were really running full-bore. Only their military-industrial complex has largely just been industrial to this point.

China will have no reason to attack their best customer. It would serve no purpose. On the other hand, wealthy Chinese citizens will want and demand land, so China will have to find way to obtain land. I believe they will do that in two ways. The first will be by emigration and de facto colonization. That is already occurring. The second way will be by assimilation of neighboring countries. My guess is that North Korea is very high on that list. It wouldn't surprise me to see North Korea become a client state of China within 15 years. I doubt the new ruler in North Korea will be able to hold it all together there after daddy dies.

[massons]

I'm thinking more along the lines of 2025.

Then they'll be going toe-to-toe with the West technologically in enough respects that when you throw in: Chinamen, Screaming, 1 Billion ea...

Kowtow is the word that comes to mind.

China today can't be compared to China at any time in her past.

For centuries they were doing just as you say.

But I know you've been paying enough attention to China to know that the quasi-capitalist industrial revolution they have going on over there is an immediate game changer.

China now is the United States 1942-1943 when the production lines were really running full-bore. Only their military-industrial complex has largely just been industrial to this point.

We'll see. Like the US, China will have a demographic problem as its population ages. Unlike the US, it had a population control measure that is going to result in a massive unbalance towards the aged unlike anything we'll see in the US.

There are plenty of potential of destabilizers within China already - warmongering is not a likely scenario for them IMHO.

[Gogogo]

it's made in China, it'll break after the first use.

[nakeseireo]

Yeah, well, if they build 2000, against 187 F22s....Just sayin'.

[UMATURLIN]

Yeah, well, if they build 2000, against 187 F22s....Just sayin'.

we are a long way from China. It's Russia's problem really

[zU8KbeIU]

On the other hand, I suppose it's entirely possible the Chinese are actually nice people.