[mynaflzak]

I don't know, but I'm perfectly ok with it. I'm willing to go out on a limb with a prediction, which clearly you are not.

*cough* post #19 *cough*

It's more that I'm not willing to stake my reputation on the outcome of a complex event more than a year before it occurs. That's a fool's bet.

[Usesdiums]

And I think the assent of Obama's chances at 60-40 is farcical and a creation of jdhill's deep emotional commitment to the Conservative narrative as supplied by the usual sources.

Are you seriously discounting my prediction as evidence of a committment to a party line because my odds of Obama's winning are simply not high enough for you???? Meanwhile, you offer that Romney would have no chance to win, saying it will "get him out of the way" and "doesn't waste anyone who actually miht be able to win in 2016". So I've given Obama a 60-40 chance of winning, and you've given Romney a 0-100 chance... and I demonstrate emotional commitment issues????? Amazingly, I believe that you actually believe that....

[voodoosdv]

*cough* post #19 *cough*

It's more that I'm not willing to stake my reputation on the outcome of a complex event more than a year before it occurs. That's a fool's bet.

What reputation? No one even knows who you are.

[Ayyfjicg]

If someone suggested that the Phillies were attracting dupes and doles from NJ and PA, and I said, "they're attracting plenty of people from Delaware", that doesn't neccessarily lead to the conclusion that I'm suggesting that their attendance is increasing, only that their getting fans from places other than PA and NJ.

That said, if you are asking what I think will happen in 2012, it will depend on three things:

1 - is the unemployment rate over 8.5%
2 - does Obama face a REAL primary opponent (someone who can get 25% of the vote)
3 - does the GOP nominate a non-controversial candidate.

Right now, I think the answers will be yes, no, yes. Obama would be tough to beat, probably 60-40 odds of re-election, GOP will hold the house easily, and will pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate. I don't know if you'd consider that a closer election than 2008 or not.

Obama won't face a real primary opponent because his hard core support comes from those most ideologically driven and those are the types to mount challenges to a sitting President. Furthermore, in the average activist Democrat's mind any opposition to Obama is racially motivated. No Democrat would dare oppose Obama.

[BenBoobmers]

What reputation? No one even knows who you are.

I do; I'm a pretty great guy, actually.

Furthermore, in the average activist Democrat's mind any opposition to Obama is racially motivated.

What the ****?

[citation needed]

[jojocomok]

If someone suggested that the Phillies were attracting dupes and doles from NJ and PA, and I said, "they're attracting plenty of people from Delaware", that doesn't neccessarily lead to the conclusion that I'm suggesting that their attendance is increasing, only that their getting fans from places other than PA and NJ.

That said, if you are asking what I think will happen in 2012, it will depend on three things:

1 - is the unemployment rate over 8.5%
2 - does Obama face a REAL primary opponent (someone who can get 25% of the vote)
3 - does the GOP nominate a non-controversial candidate.

Right now, I think the answers will be yes, no, yes. Obama would be tough to beat, probably 60-40 odds of re-election, GOP will hold the house easily, and will pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate. I don't know if you'd consider that a closer election than 2008 or not.

I think you've placed a safe bet with those guesses, except I may only slightly disagree one point #1. I'd say Average Joe feet on the ground doesn't actually care about the employment numbers unless it effects him/her directly. Parties wield unemployment numbers as though they're Excalibur, but let's just keep in mind that every talking head on MSNBC, Fox and CNN has a job while pointing out how bad it was/is/will be unless X guy gets in

[Boripiomi]

Furthermore, in the average activist Democrat's mind any opposition to Obama is racially motivated.

Only when people say really stupid sh!t like this, sure

[kylsq0Ln]

I know it's early-but I'm sensing a much more favorable election climate for D's in 2012...

[Wckcvhsg]

I know it's early-but I'm sensing a much more favorable election climate for D's in 2012...

Why?

[TheBest-Host]

Why?

Because the GOP has no one to run and Obama's position (recent events aside) is stong.

I know from the beginning that conservatives have been operating on the narrative that Obama is Carter, but that hasn't been playing out.

From a completely crass media standpoint, Obama has a year in which to do other things, a year which will include the 10th anniversary of the 11th Sept 2001 attacks, which I'm sure -as president- he will play a major part in.

When he finally moves into campaign mode, he's got a lot of positives to run on and few negatives. If he's running against Romney (and I think he will be), Healthcare Reform can't be used against him, as Romneycare and Obamacare are indistinguishable.

And if he's running against some crazy person, he'll have his work cut out for him.

[XqrkN4a0]

Lots of indys aren't happy with Barry right now ... what they seen to miss is they will end up voting for the exact same thing 2012 in Romney or Perry

I voted for BOB in 2008. I am dissatisfied. But that doesn't mean I am going to vote the other side just because I don't think BOB did a good enough job to merit a second term. In all likelihood, I will vote for a 3rd party candidate, even if I have to write one in.

[grizolsemn]

I voted for BOB in 2008. I am dissatisfied. But that doesn't mean I am going to vote the other side just because I don't think BOB did a good enough job to merit a second term. In all likelihood, I will vote for a 3rd party candidate, even if I have to write one in.

In our system, this *is* a vote for the other side.

[kKFB1BxX]

Because the GOP has no one to run and Obama's position (recent events aside) is stong.

What position is that .. In Pa. Mega Neo-Con RSantorum is basically tied w/ Barry re: a Quinnipiac poll just released .. maybe you should get off the internets so you can answer your daily polling calls to boost Barrys ratings




I know from the beginning that conservatives have been operating on the narrative that Obama is Carter, but that hasn't been playing out.

From a completely crass media standpoint, Obama has a year in which to do other things, a year which will include the 10th anniversary of the 11th Sept 2001 attacks, which I'm sure -as president- he will play a major part in. He makes Carter look competent



When he finally moves into campaign mode, he's got a lot of positives to run on and few negatives. If he's running against Romney (and I think he will be), Healthcare Reform can't be used against him, as Romneycare and Obamacare are indistinguishable. Mickey Kaus pointed out in his run against Nancy Pelosi, 'Democrats are the ones who believe in government. making it work, or making it as sound and un-dysfunctional as possible, should be their program'. That's why Romney would be such an awful nominee for the Repubics. He might actually make the social welfare state run better and thereby increase support for it....




And if he's running against some crazy person, he'll have his work cut out for him. Define crazy .. if he is running even in Pa w/ Santorum .. he's in deep doodoo
But just remember just remember, Paul, Johnson or even Bacheman can't win.

[cindygirl]

Why?

Oh I don't know-probably because the House GOP to a man voted to end Medicare as we know it. Exhibit "A" are the results in the NY special district election this Spring when a Democrat won a district that went 58% for John McCain in 08.

You can bet money that the Dems will make sure 55 and over voters know about this on election day in swing districts.

[Rinkeliacasse]

What position is that .. In Pa. Mega Neo-Con RSantorum is basically tied w/ Barry re: a Quinnipiac poll just released .. maybe you should get off the internets so you can answer your daily polling calls to boost Barrys ratings

What are you babbling about? Are you trying to say that there's a poll in which Snatorum is tied with Obama? Let's have a link to that, please!

Mickey Kaus pointed out in his run against Nancy Pelosi, 'Democrats are the ones who believe in government. making it work, or making it as sound and un-dysfunctional as possible, should be their program'. That's why Romney would be such an awful nominee for the Repubics. He might actually make the social welfare state run better and thereby increase support for it.... Your letting your personal bias cloud your judgement (again); most Americans aren't looking for a candiate who promises to destroy the government. They're starting to realize that putting the people who want to "drown it in a bath" in charge is like letting the child-murder babysit.

[oraltyrap]

I voted for BOB in 2008. I am dissatisfied. But that doesn't mean I am going to vote the other side just because I don't think BOB did a good enough job to merit a second term. In all likelihood, I will vote for a 3rd party candidate, even if I have to write one in.

Or you'll just stay home... which is why polling organizations attempt to capture the level of enthusiam of the poll-ee to further distinguish between registered voters, and likely voters.

[VYholden]

What are you babbling about? Are you trying to say that there's a poll in which Snatorum is tied with Obama? Let's have a link to that, please!
.

Also tied with his twin

Poll: Obama Tied with GOPers in Pennsylvania 2012 Match-Up - Political Punch

[FailiaFelay]

Also tied with his twin

Poll: Obama Tied with GOPers in Pennsylvania 2012 Match-Up - Political Punch

This place owuld be less amusing if you read articles before linking to them:

Voters preferred Romney to Obama, 44 to 42 percent. When matched with Santorum, they opted for Obama 45 to 43 percent. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.

Six weeks ago, Obama held a seven-point lead over Romney and 11-point lead over Santorum in the same poll.

“Any good poll is a snapshot of public opinion, and this survey shows President Barack Obama at a low point just before a major announcement on the national debt limit, after a long and bitter debate,” said Tim Malloy of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in a statement.

So, within the margin of error on both and even the pollster points out that he's at "a low point".

I know that goes against your (Fox's?) narrative where Obama's numbers are cratering, but, well, there we are.

[FrereeDoulley]

This place owuld be less amusing if you read articles before linking to them:

Voters preferred Romney to Obama, 44 to 42 percent. When matched with Santorum, they opted for Obama 45 to 43 percent. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.

Six weeks ago, Obama held a seven-point lead over Romney and 11-point lead over Santorum in the same poll.

“Any good poll is a snapshot of public opinion, and this survey shows President Barack Obama at a low point just before a major announcement on the national debt limit, after a long and bitter debate,” said Tim Malloy of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in a statement.

So, within the margin of error on both and even the pollster points out that he's at "a low point".

I know that goes against your (Fox's?) narrative where Obama's numbers are cratering, but, well, there we are.

Lulz ..Yep his 400th TV appearance this afternoon will change all of this .. or maybe all this great economic data will help Barry's collapsing polling data

[zlopikanikanza]

Lulz ..Yep his 400th TV appearance this afternoon will change all of this

Because it's wrong for the President to address the public?

.. or maybe all this great economic data will help Barry's collapsing polling data Give the market a couple days to process the debt ceiling thing; it can't turn on a dime.

As someone here pointed out, you can't put money into Japan or German bonds right now, Europe's weak and teh Euro is flat pending the debt crisis, and gold is a fool's investment, so the soomer we stop tryingto destroy the American economy and stabilize the NYSE, the sooner money comes pouring in from all overthe world.