[Dwerfsd]

From a 3 page OPINION piece that's all you got? Nice skillz there Jackie.

[yovbQVpD]

Unless your a racist homophobic religious zealot, the Republicans turn more people away with their non-political rhetoric.

[durootrium]

Unless your a racist homophobic religious zealot, the Republicans turn more people away with their non-political rhetoric.

I'll assume you believe that (which is a sad commentary in itself)... what's too bad for you though is that the Republican Party appears to be attracting plenty of people who are none of these...

[phenterminediett]

I'll assume you believe that (which is a sad commentary in itself)... what's too bad for you though is that the Republican Party appears to be attracting plenty of people who are none of these...

Like Tea Partiers?

[AndreasLV]

Like Tea Partiers?

Most were probably already voting with republicans, wouldn't you think? So the answer would be no.

[sirmzereigMix]

I'll assume you believe that (which is a sad commentary in itself)... what's too bad for you though is that the Republican Party appears to be attracting plenty of people who are none of these...

It is bad for all of us

[Kimeoffessyr]

democrats have to come up with a new line too.
the old "tax breaks for the wealthy only" they throw at the other side is old.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/31/op...rats.html?_r=2

[Kitdowstyhodo]

I'll assume you believe that (which is a sad commentary in itself)... what's too bad for you though is that the Republican Party appears to be attracting plenty of people who are none of these...

If that's true, then the next election should be a landslide right?

[timgreyuvcz]

If that's true, then the next election should be a landslide right?

If what is true... that the republican party is attracting plenty of people who are not racist homophobic religious zealots? Not sure that would lead to a landslide (or even a victory) more so than if they were racist homophobic and so forth...

[toponlinecasinoer]

Like Tea Partiers?

Lots of indys aren't happy with Barry right now ... what they seen to miss is they will end up voting for the exact same thing 2012 in Romney or Perry

[duawLauff]

Tea Partiers aside, it is my impression, even after reading that essay, that voters tuning out Democrats does not therefore translate into their embracing Republicans. It's more like the reason many of these same voters voted for Obama in '08: He wasn't the other guy. I think there is something of a plague-on-both-their-houses attitude abroad in the land, especially after they have lived through six years of the small-government, fiscal-responsibility party expanding government and blowing the surplus left it by the previous president, followed by two years of the champion-of-the-little-guy party dancing to Wall Street's tune and not winding down the war it inherited from the previous president.

[lollypopz]

If what is true... that the republican party is attracting plenty of people who are not racist homophobic religious zealots? Not sure that would lead to a landslide (or even a victory) more so than if they were racist homophobic and so forth...

Despite what we see here and on Philly.com, racists, homophobes, and religious zealots are (I hope) a minority in this country. Since, as you say, the GOP is attracting plenty of that majority, that would lead me to believe you were saying that 2012 would not be as close as 2008.

[indentKew]

Despite what we see here and on Philly.com, racists, homophobes, and religious zealots are (I hope) a minority in this country. .

You forgot sexists

[flnastyax]

Despite what we see here and on Philly.com, racists, homophobes, and religious zealots are (I hope) a minority in this country. Since, as you say, the GOP is attracting plenty of that majority, that would lead me to believe you were saying that 2012 would not be as close as 2008.

If someone suggested that the Phillies were attracting dupes and doles from NJ and PA, and I said, "they're attracting plenty of people from Delaware", that doesn't neccessarily lead to the conclusion that I'm suggesting that their attendance is increasing, only that their getting fans from places other than PA and NJ.

That said, if you are asking what I think will happen in 2012, it will depend on three things:

1 - is the unemployment rate over 8.5%
2 - does Obama face a REAL primary opponent (someone who can get 25% of the vote)
3 - does the GOP nominate a non-controversial candidate.

Right now, I think the answers will be yes, no, yes. Obama would be tough to beat, probably 60-40 odds of re-election, GOP will hold the house easily, and will pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate. I don't know if you'd consider that a closer election than 2008 or not.

[blackjackiisre]

Right now, I think the answers will be yes, no, yes. Obama would be tough to beat, probably 60-40 odds of re-election, GOP will hold the house easily, and will pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate. I don't know if you'd consider that a closer election than 2008 or not.

Is some way of pinning this and saving it? As i'll want to remind you of your prediction late next year.

[LSg44PDu]

I only read the Title but I can share that heavy drinking tea partiers and republicans are sending this country to hell in a handbasket

[13spebampiliece]

Is some way of pinning this and saving it? As i'll want to remind you of your prediction late next year.

Originally Posted by jdhill
Right now, I think the answers will be yes, no, yes. Obama would be tough to beat, probably 60-40 odds of re-election, GOP will hold the house easily, and will pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate. I don't know if you'd consider that a closer election than 2008 or not.

I don't know. Don't be so quick to judge. I think it's a fair assessment. How do you think it will turn out. I'll copy your response and post next year...

[JanetMorris]

I don't know. Don't be so quick to judge. I think it's a fair assessment. How do you think it will turn out. I'll copy your response and post next year...

I don't really like to try to make predictions this far out, as much will change between now and November of next years.

But at this point the most likely version of events is that its Obama v. Romney (because it's Romney's "turn") and Romney fights the good fight like Dole in 1996. This gives Romney his chance to run, gets him out of the way, and doesn't waste anyone who might actually be able to win in 2016.

There's a small chance the party will nominate an extremist like Bachmann, in which case it will look more like Reagan v. Mondate and the extremist will be lucky to win their own home state.

It all depends on what sort of insanity the far right wing of the GOP engage in between then and now.

And I think the assent of Obama's chances at 60-40 is farcical and a creation of jdhill's deep emotional commitment to the Conservative narrative as supplied by the usual sources.

[Hitfaromarf]

Is some way of pinning this and saving it? As i'll want to remind you of your prediction late next year.

I don't know, but I'm perfectly ok with it. I'm willing to go out on a limb with a prediction, which clearly you are not. I did the same well before the 2010 elections and recall that I overestimated the Republican gain in the senate by 2 and underestimated the Republican gain in the house by 4. Meanwhile, more than one of the left leaning folks on this board were adamant that the D's would hold the house, and
what was the eventual tally, GOP + 70 I think.

[mynaflzak]

I don't know, but I'm perfectly ok with it. I'm willing to go out on a limb with a prediction, which clearly you are not.

*cough* post #19 *cough*

It's more that I'm not willing to stake my reputation on the outcome of a complex event more than a year before it occurs. That's a fool's bet.