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Old 10-07-2008, 06:14 AM   #1
Pashtet

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Default Economy: Where does it go from here?
Putting aside politics, anger over the situation, your personal financial status, and your hopes amd fears, do you believe that this country is going to experience a stock market+real estate+financial market correction, a recession, a 1930's style depression.

The news has reported poll results. What do we at WNY think?

There is no "I don't know" in this poll. Something is happening inthe economy. What do you think it is leading toward?
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Old 10-07-2008, 06:20 AM   #2
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Part of me wanted to vote for the correction, but I think the correction will turn into a depression. This will not be a completely horrible thing as some people will develop character out of this situation.
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Old 10-07-2008, 06:38 AM   #3
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I very much hope for just a recession. I think the fundamentals (yeah, that's right) are not as strong now as they were in the 1930s, America's manufacturing etc are not where they are. Not sure the country could really recoup after another depression.
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Old 10-07-2008, 11:24 AM   #4
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Part of me wanted to vote for the correction, but I think the correction will turn into a depression. This will not be a completely horrible thing as some people will develop character out of this situation.
I agree, certainly has changed my mind on future decision I will make once I get credit.
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Old 10-07-2008, 01:53 PM   #5
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Here in Italy, they are not making too big a deal out of this. Or at least yet. But the economy here is always bad and people pretty much live within their means. People are used to economizing, smaller cars, lower thermostat, little air conditioning, smaller homes... all of this while managing a high quality of life. And when you are surrounded by antiquity it is easy to be reminded: this too shall pass.
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Old 10-07-2008, 02:26 PM   #6
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Recession-and-a-half. Maybe similar to 1980-82, which was pretty bad.

People tend to forget all the recessions and focus comparisons to The Great Depression.

Expect a bleak 2009. Unemployment could double, and possibly double-digit inflation.
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Old 10-07-2008, 05:24 PM   #7
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Recession-and-a-half. Maybe similar to 1980-82, which was pretty bad.

People tend to forget all the recessions and focus comparisons to The Great Depression.

Expect a bleak 2009. Unemployment could double, and possibly double-digit inflation.
Except me, who started his 401K during the Tech Bubble Burst!

2 bubbles popping right on the money I was saving for retirement because I know SS won't last.

Here's the thing that annoys me. After all of this? I probably would have had more money if I just placed it all under my mattress! This second "correction" has me serving detention in "retire when we say you can" land.

And the 80's also had their downturn with the slash/burn Reagonomics that did not "trickle down" as much as they said they would. And going back to tha gas crisis of the 70's...etc etc.

This is just the most wide spread downturn, probably because of the access of the internet. What it will boil down to, though, is a crunch on the McMansion generation.

I just hope this stimulus package does not make it so that people do not take their debt seriously. That companies do not feel this is a free ride. Why the hell are we, the taxpayer, buying out junk mortgages? Why don't we buy the good ones?

Why do I get a second or third chance only if I was an idiot? What are we doing to reward those that did the right thing in the first place?

This almost feels like a compression of the financial classes and a clearing of the space between middle and upper class.
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Old 10-07-2008, 09:05 PM   #8
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And when you are surrounded by antiquity it is easy to be reminded: this too shall pass.
Nice insight, something we must remember from time to time.
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Old 10-08-2008, 12:44 AM   #9
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I think and hope its hit rock bottom....or we are real close to it, but the real recovery will not start until next year. Thats what pains most people....you know or you are told that what you have will come back and then some but when is the question.
I still think the real estate market has yet to hit rock bottom.....I am born raised and live in NYC, I have talked with many people and they are scared.

Things in NYC are going to get much worse.....THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS OVER US, we are almost through the storm but not sure of what all the damage is, time will only tell......
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:06 AM   #10
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We're not even close to rock-bottom, and it'll get worse before it gets better.
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:16 AM   #11
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Really comes down to the credit market. If that seizes up we'll have a wave of bank failures that'll make the S&L crisis seem like a fond memory.

If they manage to stabilize it... it'll just be an ugly recession.
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:40 AM   #12
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Its dam close to the bottom people are very fearful, people are pissed, they are pissed at the polly's there pissed at the fund manager's
I'm in and I have faith that me being in will eventually pay off BIG
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:01 AM   #13
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The rock bottom you're talking about is the stock market. Right now, much of that is fear of what may be ahead.

If there is a long and deep recession, the effects of the lack of credit liquidity haven't become full-blown. As businesses lay-off or wink-out, a percentage of the unemployed will suddenly have bad mortgages, exacerbating the problem.
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Old 10-09-2008, 06:54 PM   #14
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Im more interested in what will happen in the city.

Economic downturn - will it mean more crime?

I think we are just starting to see the beginning.

Too many people have been using high house values as cash machines, spurred on by realtors and financiers who all made a buck out of it. They owe money, the banks cant recover it, and consumer spending is going to plummet.

80% of the economy is consumer spending.
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Old 10-09-2008, 11:34 PM   #15
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The impact on New York and the surrounding area is going to be devastating, perhaps catastrophic. I can't think of a time when year-over-year tax revenues will decline as sharply as they're sure to do this year from the combination of fewer real estate deals and Wall Street bonus pools going from record highs to almost zero.

I can only hope Bloomberg prepared the city for the downturn as well as he claims. Crime shouldn't go up too much unless we see a sudden shift in demographics.
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Old 10-10-2008, 12:05 AM   #16
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Dow8,610.81-647.29(-6.99%)Nasdaq1,645.12-95.21(-5.47%)S&P 500912.43-72.51(-7.36%)


That pretty much says it all for the day
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Old 10-10-2008, 12:11 AM   #17
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^ It has been on a steady drop since last week
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Old 10-10-2008, 12:45 AM   #18
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When they told us all to not panic and stay the course.

F THEM!!!!

I am really serious with that emotion there. Where the HELL is this money going? I know we had a debt circle J.... well, you can fill in the rest, but still, where did all this cash dissappear to?

I am looking at my retirement push further and further away. I am looking at a career in an industry that BUILDS things, that generally suffers during economic downturns.

I am looking at a kid coming into my life.

I am looking at walls and thankfully realizing how painful it would be to hit them.

But LUCKILY, our government will wave the magical cash wand and EVERYTHING will be OK!
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Old 10-10-2008, 06:35 AM   #19
Louthcoombutt

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But Ninja, look on the bright side...




...oh, never mind.
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