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01-03-2011, 05:47 PM | #1 |
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The Party Is Over In Australia As Debt And Living Costs Surge
The party is over in Australia. Many anti-dollar investors and Pollyannas living down under just don't realize it yet. Nonetheless, Australia faces an economic crunch as family finances collapse under the burden of record debts, rising interest rates and utility bills. Please consider Australians sinking under debt burden. With banks warning they will be forced to raise mortgage rates by 0.50 per cent in 2011 and Sydney rents forecast to rise by between $160 and $190 a month, according to analysts Residex, householders look set to suffer. Repossessions and tenant evictions are expected to rise sharply. "It's going to be tough" said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital. "Families face many rising costs and while most people have slowed their borrowing, our debt is still growing and that's a big problem." Despite more cautious spending in recent months, household debt is still up by 5.8 per cent on a year ago and a recent survey by Westpac found only about 20 per cent of people thought paying off debts was the best use of their money. Most households in the US, UK and much of Europe are still busily paying down their borrowings, particularly unsecured debts such as personal loans and credit cards. "Unlike the rest of the world, Australia has slipped back into its old habits," said Steve Keen, professor of economics at the Un iversity of Western Sydney. "We're spending ourselves right back into trouble. With so much extra debt to service, we don't need interest rates to reach anything like the 9.6 per cent they hit in 2008. "We may find repossessions spiking much more quickly than they did two years ago." Weekly Living Costs Up $100 Real estate has peaked and so has the shopping center economic model based on the strong Australian dollar. There is no reason here to like either Australian equities or the Australian dollar. Strong commodity prices will no longer help Australia. Australian real estate has already been hit by rising interest rates and with Weekly living costs up $100, more rate hikes may be coming. FAMILIES face cost-of-living increases that could drain the weekly budget by up to $100 this year. New data shows Australians are being levelled with record expenses for basic services and Sydney residents are some of the hardest hit in the country. After floods that have wiped out crops in Queensland and NSW, fruit and vegetable prices are predicted to rise by up to 50 per cent. Advertisement: Story continues below Any hope the strong Australian dollar would shield motorists from increases in fuel prices have been dashed - global oil prices are tipped to hit record highs. This year's price increases will compound the cost pressures already inflicted on households. The trio of utility costs alone represents an extra yearly burden of about $1000 - or $20 a week - for an average household of four, while grocery bills are set to rise on average by $50 a week, based on a weekly bill of $150. Housing affordability has taken another dive, with industry figures showing the largest annual decrease in a decade. . Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-p...#ixzz19y4ScrNt |
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01-04-2011, 12:44 AM | #3 |
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01-04-2011, 01:06 AM | #4 |
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Nonsense.
With growth of China and India, demand for basic commodities will continue to propel Australian economy. Currently China is the world's largest consumer of steel and cement. It is importing iron ore from India! As India progresses and builds it infra it too will need the commodities. Australia has only 20 million people. I see good years ahead. Finally, all economies go through cycles. So there will be the usual boom and bust. Strong finances will allow Gov to mitigate the bust, (provide the stimulus and social safety nets). |
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01-04-2011, 03:24 AM | #5 |
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01-04-2011, 05:03 AM | #6 |
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Nonsense. Arsetralia is in deep trouble because the AUD is rising higher than USD. Translation: Because it's an EXPORT dependent country, a very high AUD means its produce & the crap that it digs out from the land, are too expensive for its usual clients who now look for alternate resource providers in Africa & South America. |
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01-04-2011, 05:45 AM | #7 |
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01-04-2011, 01:24 PM | #8 |
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Does not matter if A$ strengthens 30% as long as commodities are up 100%.
Aust is not a big exporter of mfg goods. The way I see it the future very very bright for Australia. A$ probably reflects this $ coming from commodity exports Read here: y RAY BRINDAL CANBERRA—Australia's resources boom has resumed, the government's chief commodities forecaster said, driven by surging iron ore and coal exports to booming Asian markets. Exports have now more than recovered from last year's downturn amid the global financial crisis, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said in its latest report. Australia is a major global supplier of minerals, energy and farm commodities, the production and export of which form an important part of the domestic economy. Exports of minerals and energy products represented 68% of total merchandise exports last fiscal year and 54% of Australia's total exports of goods and services Australia's commodity exports are set to surge 26% year-to-year to a record 214.93 billion Australian dollars (US$203.45 billion) in the fiscal year started July 1, Abare said Tuesday. That is a 6.1% rise from an earlier forecast made in June. The agency also revised up its estimate of exports last fiscal year to A$170.57 billion, up 4.0% from the June estimate. Exports totaled A$197.68 billion in 2008-09. In a quarterly commodity outlook, Abare said exports of mineral resources, which include energy, metals and other mineral products, could top A$179.86 billion in 2010-11, a gain of 30% on year and up 5.9% from the June estimate. Exports of commodities such as gold, alumina and nickel could also rise substantially, it said. In framing its forecasts, Abare said it has assumed the Australian dollar exchange rate to average US$0.90 in 2010-11, up from an estimated US$0.87 in June and up from an actual US$0.88 last fiscal year. World economic growth is assumed at 4.3% in 2010 and 3.7% in 2011, compared with a June estimate of 3.9% for both years. Emerging economies, particularly China and India, remain the key drivers of global economic activity, providing support for economic recovery in developing Asia, according to the report. Abare said it expects Chinese economic growth to remain strong. While tightening measures implemented by the Chinese government pose a downside risk to the outlook, the probability of a significant slowdown in domestic demand remains low at this stage, it said. By contrast, economic growth among developed nations has been modest. While the threat of a sovereign debt crisis in Europe appears to have eased, renewed concerns have emerged about the sustainability of the economic recovery in the U.S. and Japan, it said. Horseshite again! |
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01-04-2011, 01:43 PM | #9 |
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Aust is not a big exporter of mfg goods. The way I see it the future very very bright for Australia. A$ probably reflects this $ coming from commodity exports Nobody but you said arsetralia is a major exporter of mfg goods - produce means "meats" like arsetralian beef & seafood - these're major industries. If you know anything about arsetralia, you'd know that. These industries're in deep shite because of the record high AUD. That also affects the arsetralian resource export market - their major client being china has already begun looking elsewhere to meet demand. Faltering exports means faltering economy. Arsetralia IS an export dependent country & a high AUD hurts it big time, get it? Everybody knows arsetralia is in a deep recession. Only their gahmen denies that because it's not a re-election friendly admission. |
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01-04-2011, 02:45 PM | #10 |
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Does not matter if A$ strengthens 30% as long as commodities are up 100%. as long as China continue to consume all the iron ore from Oz. i would agree with the article. |
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01-04-2011, 03:21 PM | #11 |
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There is nothing like some bad news from Australia to make the trolls feel better.
Like what Lee Kuan Yew said about Singaporeans, Mr Lee: “Well, we’ve got ethnic Chinese and ethnic Indians here. The settled ones have become less hard-driving and hard-striving and we’ve got recent migrants, they are hungry, they’re determined to succeed having uprooted themselves and they’re doing better.” Q: "There are grumbles but there are always grumbles." Mr Lee: "There must be. Singaporeans are champion grumblers." Many Singaporeans who went to Australia are not as prepared like those who went to some far-off land Canada. And these trolls are the products of those who got burnt when they realised how unprepared they were. |
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01-04-2011, 04:48 PM | #12 |
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01-04-2011, 08:16 PM | #13 |
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WTF, Aussie retailing fucking fatcats complaining - but shoppers are fighting back.
Who ever shop at Harvey Norman anyway. Back off our web deals - readers By staff writers From: news.com.au January 04, 2011 12:00AM 261 comments Chris McQualter and her daughter Tamsin say online shopping is a godsend. Picture: Stuart Mcevoy Shoppers defend online bargains Urge retailers to up their game Web offers choice, better service Read more reader comments here SORRY, Gerry, shoppers won't give up their online bargains. News.com.au reader reaction to a campaign by retailers urging taxes on online bargains suggests Australians are unhappy with the prices charged by national retailers. They also want choice - something they believe they don't get in Australian stores. Nathan from Gawler was not atypical in his assessment of the retailers. He wrote: "The public is fed up of being taken for a ride. Your profit margins: too fat, your business plans: inefficient, and yet you think I'm going to buy your goods at your inflated prices. Why wouldn't we shop online? In the space of 10 minutes, I can compare the prices on any given item." Related Coverage Store Wars: Empire strikes back Readers tell retailers to back off Adelaide Now, 7 hours ago Retailers' GST demand 'won't work' NEWS.com.au, 9 hours ago Shopping around was never easier The Australian, 1 day ago Retailers fight trend to internet Adelaide Now, 1 day ago Shoppers attracted by virtual benefits The Australian, 4 days ago Find and compare Save now Home loans, savings accounts and more Price was not the only reason readers gave for their decisions to shop online. Many offered several other justifications, like Susan from Ormeau, who wrote: “The cost of implementing a GST on internet purchases (even if it were possible to do so) would far outweigh the money collected by the government, and would not protect retail sector jobs, it would just employ more public servants to collect it. "I will continue to shop online and buy from overseas because it is cheaper, and the service is better. I can get items delivered to my door, don't have to fight crowds and deal with salespeople who are often rude and don't know anything about what they are selling.” For Steve Berry of Newcastle it was about convenience and the dwindling mobility in an ageing population – and more. “If the large Australian retail stores had comprehensive online sites, they would probably get more online business,” Mr Berry wrote. “The new NBN is supposed to make it easier and faster to get online. With an aging population who would rather shop online they really need some place to go. Come on Gerry Harvey and the rest of you, please try to keep up with technology and stop whinging that no one buys your products.” Another reader said if retailers wanted to increase sales, they should drop prices and treat people with respect. The McQualter family in Broome told The Australian that internet shopping had been a godsend. Because distance and wealthy tourists push the prices up in their local shops, they often look online for a better deal. Chris McQualter saved $600 on a $2000 cappuccino machine at Christmas by buying it on the net and having it delivered to her father's farm in Gippsland, Victoria, for $17. Using internet prices as a wily negotiating tactic, she has also saved money by challenging businesses in Broome to match the online deals. "I tell them the price and they normally say 'We can get within that'," she said. Not everyone agrees that online is best. Paradise teacher Sarah Belperio, 21, told AdelaideNow that she always bought locally. "Even if something is cheaper online, I always want to see it, to try it on if it's clothes, before I buy it," she said. "But the retailers definitely have a point. You don't want things overseas to look too appealing." Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/money-m...#ixzz1A4Wev700 |
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01-04-2011, 11:33 PM | #14 |
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Nonsense. China is facing a serious inflationary crisis, and is busy putting out fires to stoke inflation but tightening. Every interest rate hike or reserve requirement puts a damper on industry which translates into lower demand for commodities. This will actually hurt Australia. 2011 will prove to be important but we dont think China has a handle on its inflation problem. Money supply is increasing too fast, the Chinese are going to HK to buy food now, and the Chinese will have some success in slowing down the economy to 8-9% but inflation will continue to run out of control, another 8% on top of 2009's 10% and 2008's 8%. In 2012 we think things could run out of control in China and either the Yuan rises (which will slow production) or inflation fears in China push markets into turmoil like in 2009 (and the US Dollar rises significantly, lowering oil, other commodity prices) or the US Dollar itself comes under attack due to fiscal worries (commodities increase to stratospheric levels, pushing up inflation in developing economies, starting another GFC) Also look for the property bubble to pop in China - this will destroy Australia. |
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