Reply to Thread New Thread |
02-14-2012, 06:33 PM | #21 |
|
|
|
02-15-2012, 01:39 AM | #22 |
|
Our bust up will be much worse than what we feel and/or are seeing in Europe |
|
02-15-2012, 02:50 AM | #23 |
|
Our bust up will be much worse than what we feel and/or are seeing in Europe No it won't. Our social safety net is tiny compared to most European countries. It's mostly designed to protect old people, with some meager assistance going to the poor (Don't try to say we spend a lot on the poor. If we did, they wouldn't be poor.). We've mostly dismantled the unions and bought off the middle class with tax credits, so where will the opposition come from? Old folks rioting? (Then again, the Tea Party protests were kinda scary, so maybe you're right.) We're piling up debt to GDP at a wildly unsustainable rate. Our borrowing cost is hugely misunderstood by people who rationalize our economic situation. People think it's a reflection of trust in the USG. Nothing could be further from the truth. It's a reflection of a lack of alternatives, and a need to have assets in a liquid currency. The Euro's implosion is a huge friend to us right now. And Japan's persistent lack of growth is too. We may continue to benefit for 5, 10 or maybe 15 years from having the dollar be a global reserve currency and the lack of trusted alternatives. But anyone who thinks the world doesn't notice that the USG is printing money and basically soft-defaulting, is clueless. The day will come when alternatives seem solid, and the cost to us will be brutal when it happens. If we were smart, we'd use the position we have today to shore up our economy, so we're prepared to operate without the huge benefit of being the global reserve currency. But we're not smart. We're insane. Rather than save and invest, we're borrowing and spending. Things will turn, and when they do the interest alone on our debt will crush us. And since we borrow so heavily short-term, we won't even have much of a shock-absorber on rates -- most of the cost of a rate increase will flow through rapidly. Oh, and anyone who thinks China can subsidize our consumption at the rate we're over-consuming is just wrong. It's the Fed through printing that's subsidizing it at the moment, and that cannot continue without dire consequences. |
|
09-21-2012, 01:07 PM | #24 |
|
|
|
09-22-2012, 01:56 AM | #25 |
|
|
|
Reply to Thread New Thread |
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
|