[Hetgvwic]

In this round of economic crisis, the 3rd world will thrive over the G8 as the 1st world G8 slide backwards, the evidence is showing up in terms of GDP figures already.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009...t_10825256.htm

美国年度威胁评估报告预测中印GDP追美日
2009年02月16日 08:33:41 　来源：环球时报



美国新任情报总监布莱尔

美国新任国家情报总监丹尼斯·布莱尔12日向美国国会参议院情报特别委员会提交了年度威胁评估报告。与往年 的报告不同，今年的报告认为世界金融危机已经超过恐怖主义成为美国的“头号安全威胁”。报告还用大量篇幅谈 到中国，认为中国这个“亚洲巨人”正在逐渐担当“全球性角色”。

据法新社报道，这份长达49页的报告一开头就详细描述当前的金融危机。布莱尔向国会作证称，“时间可能是我 们最大的威胁，经济开始复苏推迟的时间越长，美国战略利益面临严重破坏的可能性就越大。”

布莱尔在报告中还对中印经济进行了较为夸张的预测。《印度经济时报》称，布莱尔认为，中印“正在恢复其在1 8世纪的地位”，“这两个国家的GDP将在2025年超过除美、日之外的所有国家”。他还进一步提出，在这 一过程中，印度可能对中国经济实力的增强感到担心，“印度可能在未来的10年对中国感到担心，因为北京的政 治和经济实力以及投送部队的能力都将大大增强”。他认为，鉴于这一事实，印度领导人将努力避免同中国发生对 抗。

在谈到中国时，布莱尔认为，中国外交的优先重点仍是“同其他大国保持友好关系，尤其是中美关系”，“但北京 也在试图增加其全球形象和全球影响力，以促进更广泛的利益和抵御外界的挑战，维护中国安全和领 土完整。”

布莱尔认为，中国发展蓝水海军，其任务范围已经超出东亚。他在报告中称，“2008年12月中国海军就已在 索马里海域进行反海盗巡逻。中国步兵部队也加强了在国际维和领域的影响，在联合国的后勤支援下他们还可能执 行战斗任务”，“同时，在未来的10年中，中国的核武器也将得到发展”。

在谈到两岸关系时，布莱尔称，中国的首要目标仍然是收复台湾，但其军事实力却 “不仅仅局限于本土防御”。他说：“中国一直在为台海可能爆发的冲突做准备，同时，我们判断在过去的7年中 ，中国在军事发展领域里开始了一个实质性的新阶段。”他呼吁美国继续向台湾出售武器,“除非台湾有所作为， 否则我们会是唯一帮助它的国家，这意味着我们必须为它提供更大的帮助，以保持平衡。”

总体来看，该报告对中国军力和经济延续了一贯的警惕调子。此外，除了“基地”组织外，巴尔干半岛、阿富汗、 朝核问题以及计算机安全也被列为美国的威

[Hetgvwic]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/4127351.cms

'India, China To Surpass GDP Of All Economies, Except US & Japan, By 2025'
14 Feb 2009, 0243 hrs IST, ET Bureau

NEW DELHI: In a glimpse of what the Obama administration thinks about India and its leaders, an intelligence official in the administration has
said that Indian leaders would seek benefits of "American influence, trade, and technology" but would "often adopt" positions contrary to those favoured by the US.

This statement was made by National Intelligence director Dennis Blair in a testimony to the US Senate.

In the testimony on the 'annual threat assessment of the intelligence community' for the Senate select committee on intelligence. Nevertheless, Mr Blair also said that strong ties with the US would give India confidence to deal with China and mitigate the dangers posed by Pakistan.

"On the global stage, Indian leaders will continue to follow an independent course characterised by economic and political pragmatism. New Delhi will not automatically support or oppose positions favoured by the United States or any other major power," he said, and added, "Nonetheless, good relations with the United States will be essential for India to realise its global ambitions.

This assessment comes at a time when there is still unease within the government about the shape of the Indo-US ties under the new administration.

Even though the Obama administration has emphasised that it is keen to continue the course of the bilateral relationship with India, there are doubts, which stem from earlier experiences with Democrat administrations, about how this will shape up in the future.

Another assessment from the Obama administration revolves around India’s economic growth. Mr Blair concludes that Indian governments will need to undertake economic reforms to push the economy.

"To sustain rapid growth, Indian governments also must maintain the political support for economic reforms needed to drive the expanding economy," he said.

Mr Blair said that India and China are restoring the positions they held in the eighteenth century. "These two countries are likely to surpass the GDP of all other economies except the United States and Japan by 2025," he said. But added that the momentum of India’s economic growth will be hit by the global slowdown.

He further said that India is worried by the growth of China but would not adopt a position of confrontation. "India will be concerned about China during the coming decade because of Beijing’s political and economic power and its ability to project military force regionally, but Indian leaders will strive to avoid confrontation with China," he said.

On India-Pakistan, Mr Blair said that the possession of nuclear weapons is a deterrent and possibly preventing the current tension from escalating into a war.

"I think there are a number of factors, that would perhaps change the attitude that was there in 1947. One certainly is the possession of nuclear weapons by both sides," Blair said in response to a question from Senator Jay Rockefeller.

Mr Blair said that efforts by Indian and Pakistan leaders to improve relations would fail unless Islamabad, for its part, takes meaningful steps to cut support to anti-Indian militant groups and India trues to allay Pakistan’s security concerns.
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[Hetgvwic]

http://www.deccanherald.com/Content/...ion=updatenews

India, China poised to become new world power centres
Washington, IANS:
"These two countries are likely to surpass the GDP of all other economies except the United States and Japan by 2025,'' Admiral Dennis Blair, told US Congress.

As China and India restore their 18th century positions, a rising Asia is poised to become power centre of a world beset with terrorism and proliferation threats across an "arc of instability," according to US intelligence agencies.

"China and India are restoring the positions they held in the eighteenth century when China produced approximately 30 percent and India 15 percent of the world's wealth," the director of national intelligence (DNI), Admiral Dennis Blair, told US Congress Thursday

"These two countries are likely to surpass the GDP of all other economies except the United States and Japan by 2025, although the current financial crisis may somewhat slow the momentum," he said in his annual threat assessment report.

"As the terrorism and proliferation threats persist across the 'arc of instability,' East and South Asia are poised to become the long-term power centre of the world," said the report representing the findings of all 16 US intelligence agencies.

It serves as a leading security reference for policymakers and Congress. Besides reviewing adversaries, it also considered this year the security impact of issues including climate change and the economy.

The global economic crisis has become the biggest near-term US security concern, sowing instability in a quarter of the world's countries and threatening destructive trade wars, the report said.

"The financial crisis and global recession are likely to produce a wave of economic crises in emerging market nations over the next year," said the report. A wave of "destructive protectionism" was possible as countries find they cannot export their way out of the slump.

Japan remains the second largest global economy and a strong US ally in the region, but the global economic slowdown is exacting a heavy toll on Japan's economy, it said. "To realize its aspirations to play increased regional and global roles will require strong leadership and politically difficult decisions."

All together - Japan, the "tiger" economies like South Korea and Taiwan as well as the rising giants of China and India point to the "rise of Asia" as a defining characteristic of the 21st century, the DNI report said.

China's re-emergence as a major power with global impact is especially affecting the regional balance of power, it said.

"Industrialised countries are already in recession, and growth in emerging market countries, previously thought to be immune from an industrialised country financial crisis, has also faltered, and many are in recession as well.

"Even China and India have seen their dynamic growth engines take a hit as they grapple with falling demand for their exports and a slowdown in foreign direct and portfolio investments," it noted.

"Time is our greatest threat. The longer it takes for the recovery to begin, the greater the likelihood of serious damage to US strategic interests," the report said.

[Hetgvwic]

USA & Obama will become very small-fries since they are so broke. Taro Aso is already nothing! The figures had not taken in the G8 powers sliding backward in this crisis, it is just showing only that PRC & Indians are chasing up now. When US & Japan slided themselves backwards in can be within 2 years that their GDP just by their own falls lacks behind PRC & India.

USA can forget it about dreaming to continue it's superpower status. Can sell backside soon.