[invest7manager]

TPM: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...es-nominee.php When it comes down to nominating a standard bearer to challenge President Obama in 2012, Republicans would much rather pick a candidate they think can beat Obama than one who shares all their values but whom they doubt could win in the general election, according to a CNN poll released this morning.

In the poll, 68% of Republicans said they'd prefer the GOP nominee to stand a fighting chance against Obama, even if that candidate disagrees with them on some key issues. Only 29% said they'd rather nominate a candidate who agrees with hem on every issue they consider important but who might not be able to oust the President in a general election.

That would seem to be a rebuke to Sarah Palin who, though immensely popular among Republicans, is loathed by just about everyone else. The latest TPM Poll Average shows that only 31.6% of all Americans have a favorable opinion of Palin, while 54.1% view her unfavorably -- and her support is still falling.

[somawaima]

Maybe they can get Hillary to run for the GOP?

[mybooboo]

Interesting to see recent polls showing that Obama would beat Palin today in states that he lost in 2008. I think Huntsman is one of the few potential candidates that haven't poisoned themselves to moderates with extreme rhetoric. The GOP will either need to focus on rehabilitating some of their known entities with softer positions on budget/social/foreign policy issues or reach deeper into their seemingly-empty bench to find more Huntsman-like options.

Which, of course, circles right back to the original post in this thread. Electability and ideology are the buckets. We haven't seen a Tea Party-style politician yet who can win enough major cities to get the electoral win.

Here are the variables I see determining whether momentum is for or against Obama in the second half of 2012:
-- Stock market about 13,000. If the inevitable correction after the stellar run of the past couple of years proves short and shallow and buyers rush in, millions of retirees and future retirees as well as the broader investment community will be happy to say they're better off since Obama became president.
-- Recoup more of the TARP outlay. A 13,000 Dow may well carry GM to a number that nets a profit on the taxpayer investment in that company. Pair that with strong returns on the AIG bailout and any net losses on that initial nearly trillion dollar outlay could be trimmed to just a few billion. At that cost, money well spent.
-- Unemployment below 7.5%. Putting Americans back to work is the single thing that could propel Obama to a second term despite almost anything else happening.
-- Health Care benefits rollout and small business support. As small businesses cheer more loudly about their ability to not only benefit from the Health Care package in terms of offering health benefits to their employees but also raise their caliber of hires by being able to compete more effectively against larger companies for talent, and as general consumers begin to realize the cost savings and protections insuring themselves, support for the bill may become a rising tide for Democrats in general and Obama in particular.
-- Begin significant return of soldiers from Afghanistan and begin mapping the cost savings of exiting that war into the budget outlook for the next ten to twenty years.
-- Manage the Middle East evolution of democracy with masterful diplomacy rather than the clumsy bravado of the Bush administration.

[Worseacar]

The nice thing is the stock mareket... Where there's always lies to be passed back and forth about many issues, the market is fairly tangible in this sense... And its recovery started before Election Day, so the GOP can't even claim it happened because of their congressional leadership.