[r5YOPDyk]

TPM:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...idterm-win.php

If there's an obsession afflicting Democrats and Republicans and pundits, it's a focus on the number 38. If the Democrats lose more than 38 net House seats, they lose the House. If they contain their losses to 38 or less, they keep it.

With such a large Democratic majority, the margins in the House could swing dramatically, even as the national vote shows a country divided closely between the two parties.

For instance, Democrats could win the majority of races and votes across the country but still lose 35 seats. Is that a defeat or a victory? Likewise, Republicans could win just a small majority of votes -- and a small majority of districts -- across the country, and it will look, from the perspective of the current alignment, like a 50-seat swing. In absolute terms, though, it would result in a very small margin of power for the GOP. (This is much like what happened when Democrats retook the House in 2006. When the results were in, President George W. Bush famously remarked, "if you look at race by race it was close. The cumulative effective, however, was not too close. It was a thumpin'.")

Given all of these unfavorable dynamics, experts think Dems could lose up to 50 seats and still have a decent night.

"I think the two most relevant historical precedents are 1982 and 1994, the Reagan and Clinton first midterms, both occurring at times of economic distress," says Norm Ornstein. "Under Reagan, the GOP lost back 26 of the 33 House seats it had gained in 1980, but held its own in the Senate. In 1994, of course, the Dems got killed, losing the House for the first time in 40 years, and losing a bundle in the Senate."

By "killed", Ornstein means 54 seats, more than enough to flip the House to a 230-204 Republican majority. Before the election, Democrats controlled 258 seats and Republicans 176 -- numbers eerily similar to today's Democratic 256-179 edge.

[DeedPatmeda]

I have never in my lifetime seen a bigger collection of whack jobs running for office. If they aren't dumber than a box of hair or meaner than than a yard dog then they're either liars or flat out crazy. These are the people who are going to be running our country? Heaven help us all.