[lapInsalm]

A different point of view from Paul Rahe in Ricochet.
When I read Nate Silver, Sean Trende, Charlie Cook, Jay Cost, and the others who make a profession of political prognostication, I pay close attention to their attempts to dissect the polling data and predict what is to come. But I also take everything that they say with a considerable grain of salt. You see, I lived through the 1980 election, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the collapse of the Soviet Union, and I was struck at the time by the fact that next to no one among the political scientists who made a living out of studying presidential elections, communism in eastern Europe, and Sovietology saw any of these upheavals coming. Virtually all of them were caught flat-footed.

This is, in fact, what you would expect. They were all expert in the ordinary operations of a particular system, and within that framework they were pretty good at prognostication. But the apparent stability of the system had lured them into a species of false confidence – not unlike the false confidence that fairly often besets students of the stock market.

There were others, less expert in the particulars of these systems, who had a bit more distance and a bit more historical perspective and who saw it coming. The Soviet dissident Andrei Amalrik wrote a prescient book entitled Can the Soviet Union Survive 1984? Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn predicted communism’s imminent collapse, and Daniel Patrick Moynihan suspected that the Soviet Union would soon face a fatal crisis. They were aware that institutions and outlooks that are highly dysfunctional will eventually and unexpectedly dissolve.

In my opinion, none of the psephologists mentioned above has reflected on the degree to which the administrative entitlements state – envisaged by Woodrow Wilson and the Progressives, instituted by Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and expanded by their successors – has entered a crisis, and none of them is sensitive to the manner in which Barack Obama, in his audacity, has unmasked that state’s tyrannical propensities and its bankruptcy. In consequence, none of these psephologists has reflected adequately on the significance of the emergence of the Tea-Party Movement, on the meaning of Scott Brown’s election and the particular context within which he was elected, on the election of Chris Christie as Governor of New Jersey and of Bob McDonnell as Governor of Virginia, and on the political earthquake that took place in November, 2010. That earthquake, which gave the Republicans a strength at the state and local level that they have not enjoyed since 1928, is a harbinger of what we will see this November.

Yes, Barack Obama is ahead in some polls. And, yes, it looks like a neck-and-neck race. But that is because the President is spending everything that he has right now in a desperate attempt to demonize Mitt , and it is because Americans are not yet paying attention. Obama’s support is a mile wide and a quarter of an inch deep. Psephology is a new word to me.

Rahe goes on to envision some scenarios, such as:

The question that everyone will pose to himself on the first Tuesday in November is this: “Do I want four more years of this?” And can drive it home: “Do you want four more years of massive unemployment? Do you want four more years of food stamps? Do you want to lose the job that you have? Do you want to be out of work when you get out of college? Or do you want to see this country get moving again? Barack Obama took his shot – the stimulus bill, Obamacare, and Dodd-Frank. And where has it left us? With the most anemic recovery in the history of this country!”

[SM9WI8oI]

They are both oligarchic criminals.

The USA is so hosed.

[Nikkkola]

http://youtu.be/fxEmnxiUz8w

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FIRE THIS ROTTEN CONGRESS.

SHITT ON MITT.

[tilmprarnerit]

shitty people like you deserve shitty goverments !

[Cengaeas]

YOU GOT TO FUCK 'EM BEFORE THEY FUCK YOU AGAIN...
FIRE THIS ROTTEN CONGRESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


SHUT UP, NIGGERSHIT.

[chuecafresss]

[Alulursuifold]

shitty people like you deserve shitty goverments !

Then you deserve Obama more than anyone else.

[Gymnarnemia]

YOU GOT TO FUCK 'EM BEFORE THEY FUCK YOU AGAIN...
FIRE THIS ROTTEN CONGRESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


FUCK OFF, FUCKHOLE.




...... SHTT ON MITT.

FIRE THIS ROTTEN CONGRESS.

[funnyPasds]

They are both oligarchic criminals.

The USA is so hosed.

It has been for quite some time.

[jimbomaxf]

YOU GOT TO FUCK 'EM BEFORE THEY FUCK YOU AGAIN...
FIRE THIS ROTTEN CONGRESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EASILY FIXED....

JUST STEER OUT OF THE PROGRESSIVE DITCH AND

HEAD DOWN THE WIDE-OPEN CONSTITUTIONAL HIGHWAY.


WORKS EVERY TIME.... FOR EVERYONE.

[SoorgoBardy]

Then you deserve Obama more than anyone else.

If you don't apologize , I will pass out weed to kids at the mall !