[gabbaman]

A Lotus driver looks good for becoming the 8th winner. But it will depend on circumstances, which of the two - Räikkönen or Grosjean - wins before. Who happens to have a good weekend at the right moment and has a bit of luck in addition.

This^

The best thing about 2012 is that there is no clear fastest car out there. RBR, Ferrari, McLaren are all up there with no clear advantage to anyone yet.

I think you have to include Lotus in that group.
I would also like to add that McLaren has had one bad race (ultimate pace wise), and it would be silly to discount them as they brought upgrades to a race they couldn't test on track, and likely got their setup wrong for the race.