[MzTT]

Hopefully Henrik will do a better analysis of this but this is how I see it after race 1:

Heh.

Quite an unconventional circuit, quite a messy race. No clearcut conclusions (besides the dominance of BGP ), but like in winter testing - many teams looked good. Even Force India could challenge for a point in the right circumstances.

Firstly, very unusual pecking order. The factory teams (Top4 of last year's WCC), who had opted for KERS, really didn't seem very convincing. We in a way have three different racing categories: diffuser gang, KERS-gang and "ordinary cars". I think in the next few races the "KERS-gang" (especially Ferrari) could be more competitive as the circuits will at least theoretically suit them more.

All in all, the beginning is in a way quite similar to 2004. In winter testing the competition semeed really tight with many teams looking competitive with the exception of only McLaren struggling among major teams. We turn up at Melbourne and one team emerges above others, destroying the field.

Anyway, Brawn GP's advantage at the moment seems enormous and I'm afraid even the ban of their DD-diffuser won't stop them fighting for wins. Considering that behind them the competition is really tight, rivals keep taking points away from each other, enabling BGP to even extend their lead further. Championship favourites for now. I can see them winning on all types of circuits.

Ferrari had a poor beginning like in 2008, but I expect them to be more competitive on the next circuits, which also should enable more use of KERS. Ferrari's very consistent and good race pace was praised during pre-season, but didn't see much of it in the race to be honest. The potential still needs to be unveiled. Reliability, as thought, is the worrying factor. I half-expected at least one Ferrari to retire and so it went.

McLaren - I must highlight teamwork here and especially in comparison with Ferrari. Even though Ferrari seems to have a faster car, then in other areas McLaren is stronger and it reflects in points standings already after the opening race. Quite amazing that they are second in WCC, but with such car (unable to make into Q3) they may struggle more in the next weekends.

I wonder, what will BMW decide KERS-wise in the future, especially if Heidfeld continues getting clearly beaten by Kubica? Behind Brawn GP's Kubica seems to be one of the main favourites for "the best of the rest" status at the moment.

Renault was indeed pretty invisible, but on the other hand Piquet wasn't running badly before retirement and Alonso's race was compromised at the start. Although some may suspect that due to their "brick-car" Renault's weakness is aerodynamics, then I really wonder if one of Renault's main weakness lies in adapting to new rules and especially new tyres in this regard. In 2007 they were struggling to become competitive on B'stones, now we are on slicks.

Like Ferrari, I expect Toyota to be stronger at Sepang and Sakhir - circuits, which have traditionally suited them better. 3rd in WCC after a very difficult weekend. The car showed great potential in the race, at least a few podiums should come sooner or later. With a consistent, reliable car I think their chances are quite fine to be a runner-up behing Brawn GP if they only manage to avoid dumb mistakes (and these are a real shame as they would waste their undoubted potential).

Red Bull impressed me a lot. I expected them to be in Q3, but P3 was a bonus. Their one-lap pace in winter was real. The doubtful factors were their consistency over race distance and reliability. Again in those two areas Red Bull in the hands of Vettel exceeded my expectations. RB5 is a very interesting and radical design, a lot of hopes were on it after the initial launch and they seem to pay off. No points from Melbourne, but sure enough there is more to come. Shame that Webber really failed to show much this weekend - mistake on his last run in Q3 and unfortunate accident in Turn1. He really needs strong drives to prove himself alongside Seb.

Williams was quick at Melbourne, although after winter tests there were suspicions about their race pace consistency and true - FW31 doesn't seem to be kind on soft tyres. Another factor here is that considering that Williams has been traditionally good on circuits, which emphasis is more on mechanical grip (street circuits + Monza), I suspect they won't quite do that well on more conventional circuits. And if winter testing is anything to go by, Williams seemed more impressive at Jerez (twisty circuit) than Barcelona.

Although STR and Force India are below others performance-wise, both looked good and promising. I think it was Fisichella, who really managed to hold people up, while many other drivers were overtaken quickly.

A remark for the future: While BGP is a clear favourite for the title, then P2 is really unclear at the moment with Toyota, Red Bull, BMW, Ferrari being pretty much in the game as the main contenders for this position. Wonder, where will current second McLaren stand in the next weekends. I think considering their usual high level in mechanical grip, then like Williams they may struggle a bit more on the circuits that are still to come. Especially as McLaren's main problems are arguably related to aerodynamics.