[konanoileaski]

My Last Forecast on Silver and Gold Prices


Written by Jeff Nielson Monday, 25 June 2012 11:18




It seems at the very least ironic that as I begin a new chapter in my own career as precious metals analyst for Silver Gold Bull, that simultaneously I’m writing my last chapter on one facet of that analysis. This will be my last effort at playing the increasingly irrelevant game of attempting to forecast gold and silver prices – in terms of the bankers’ paper.
Many readers will be aghast at this announcement. How can I “analyze” the gold and silver market without providing guidance on its (paper) prices? I would immediately reverse this proposition with a question of my own. How can anyone provide rational estimates for future prices of hard assets which are being priced in paper which is already effectively worthless?
Now it is the paper-peddlers who would be horrified by my stance. How dare I assert that the beloved fiat-currencies which they (and their propaganda machine) place in such high esteem are worthless? Here I have a host of arguments at my disposal, several of which I have used in the past.
There is the obvious analogy between paper currencies and the shares of a corporation. With nothing officially “backing” these paper currencies, our governments can only impute value in this paper as a claim against these sovereign entities which issue them. How much is a share worth in a bankrupt corporation? How much is a dollar worth, when it is issued by an obviously bankrupt debtor?
However we don’t need to go down that road, since it would inevitably lead to a debate between the phony, official numbers of the United State’s “national debt”, and the $200+ trillion in debts and liabilitieswhich it would be forced to acknowledge if it had to follow the same accounting rules as all U.S. corporations are required by law to use.
There is a much simpler and more direct way to demonstrate the worthlessnessof the U.S. dollar, one which is beyond any possible debate. As a tautology, anything which can be obtained in infinite quantities and produced at zero cost must be worthless. If this were not the case, then one would simply produce an infinite quantity of that item – and then exchange it for all the goods (and services) in the entire world.
With most of our fiat currencies now being conjured into existence electronically, this is the ultimate example of an infinite quantity/zero cost item…with one exception. Since all of this funny-money is borrowed into existence, the bankers were previously able to claim that in fact this was not a “zero cost” item – because of the debt/interest attached to each currency unit.
However that argument, the only basis for claiming that the bankers’ fiat currency had any value whatsoever evaporated the day that the U.S. began its permanent era of 0% interest rates. On that day the U.S. dollar fully became a zero cost/infinite quantity item – and indisputably worthless as a basic proposition of logic.
Why do people think B.S. Bernanke attempted to peddle the myth of an “exit strategy” – i.e. an end to 0% interest rates – for nearly three years, before finally being forced to abandon that absurd pretense? Because he and the rest of the banking cabal are terrified that someone would stand up (as I have done on several occasions) and announce that “the Emperor is wearing no clothes.”
At the end of Tulipmania400 years ago; one day a single tulip could be exchanged to buy a house. The next day that tulip was merely a flower. The tulip itself was unchanged. All that did change was that the mass delusion that tulips were items of considerable value suddenly and collectively evaporated. It is one of the reasons why every fiat currency ever created has gone to zero (or simply been removed from circulation before it hit zero). It is one of the reasons why they tend to go to zero very, very quickly – more commonly known as “hyperinflation”.
The moment we accept the logical fact that these fiat currencies are already worthless we see the absurdity of attempting to price valuable assets (like gold and silver) in paper which has no meaning. If I announce that in hyperinflation-ravaged Zimbabwe that an ounce of gold is “worth” $2.5 trillion Zimbabwe dollars, does that actually mean anything to anyone?
Sadly, we have collectively been so completely brainwashed (over the past century) that we are now almost incapable of conceiving a world which is not priced in paper. However, go back little more than a century (and for all the centuries preceding it throughout history) and we encounter a world virtually the mirror-opposite of our own.
In that world, everything was “priced” in gold and silver. The only way that mere paper could ever acquire value was as a certificate directly backed by gold or silver. The concept of a world where everything was “priced” in fiat paper which was backed by nothing (and effectively worthless) would have been a proposition much too ludicrous for any of our ancestors to consider – except during their own, brief, disastrous experiments with such paper.
As our fiat currencies begin their final descent into history’s dust-bin of failed paper, we are entering a period of transition and re-education. We must reintroduce into our minds the concept of once again pricing goods and services in terms of items of enduring value (i.e. real money).
There is no space here to explain (yet one more time) why gold and silver are “money” while our paper currencies are obviously not. Readers will have to refer to previous explanationsof the definition of money. Once readers have completed this second step in their mental transition, they are ready to return to a world of real money – and rational “value”.
How many ounces of gold does a house cost? How many pairs of shoes could one purchase with an ounce of silver? When the “dimes” and “quarters” in our wallets once again contain actual silver (real money), we could once again buy a chocolate bar with a dime (as we could only a few decades ago) – and perhaps several.
This mental transition will naturally seem like a very intimidating concept to many, just as the Dutch couldn’t conceive of a world which was not “priced” in tulips – the day before Tulipmania ended. Here it’s important to make readers explicitly aware of the penalties for being one of the last to make the transition away from the bankers’ world of worthless, fraudulent paper.
If you were a Dutch resident who exchanged his/her tulips for items of real value before the day Tulipmania ended, you fully protected/insured your wealth. If you did not do so, you were completely wiped-out financially – with nothing to console you except a handful of pretty flowers.
If we exchange our dollars (or euros) for hard assets (i.e. silver and gold) now, before they inevitably suffer the same fate as the Zimbabwe dollar, we can still protect what is left of our wealth. If we attempt to exchange our paper the day after our own “Tulipmania” comes to an end we will find we are holding nothing but an inferior brand of toilet paper.
It is because the speed at which this final collapse will occur is so unpredictable that it has become a Fool’s Game attempting to guess short-term prices for silver and gold – and now even predicting longer term prices as well. Indeed, this is now so speculative that it only makes sense to do so in a “best-case scenario” for the bankers’ paper (i.e. where they are able to delay the collapse of their paper with the maximum amount of success). Obviously in their worst-case scenario the paper would be absolutely worthless, inferring infinite pricesfor gold, silver, and other hard assets.
Thus my worst-case scenario for the price of gold is a price of at least $5,000/oz within the next 2 – 5 years. Similarly, my prediction for the price of silver would be a minimum of $200/oz within that same 2 – 5 year time horizon. Some will accuse me of making a “prediction” so loose as to be useless. I make no apologies.
None other than the eminent John Williams of Shadowstats.com, the foremost expert on U.S. inflation, flatly asserted that hyperinflation could hit the U.S. as early as 2011. The fact that this estimate has proven premature is no slight against Mr. Williams. In periods of market “mania”, whether we are talking about Tulipmania 400 years ago or “dot-com mania” little more than a decade ago, such collective insanity tends to endure longer than any rational mind would predict.
So it is with “dollar mania”. I have just finished demonstrating that the U.S. dollar is already worthless, as a tautology of logic. At the same time, we have the shills of the Corporate Media assuring any and all Sheep who still heed their nonsense that the U.S. dollar is a “safe haven”. The endless assertions by these loyal drones of the “unsinkable” statureof the dollar is eerily remeniscent of the Titanic.
Understand that the Flight out of Paperhas already begun. In the East – the prosperous economies which are slowly, steadily taking control of the global economy - $trillions per year in trade which used to be conducted in U.S. dollars is now being carried out through direct, bilateral trading using these nations’ own currencies.
This huge collapse in demand for U.S. dollars is yet another dynamic which can only end in a zero-value dollar. As the global glut of dollars gets larger and larger, the value of these ever-growing mountains of paper must rapidly decline in corresponding terms. Arguing that the U.S, dollar “has value” simply because it has not yet hit zero is precisely the same circular reasoning which doomed many of the Dutch at the end of Tulipmania.
Today I’m making my last call with respect to gold and silver prices. Another way of putting this would be that I’m making my “last call” for any/all passengers willing to disembark from the U.S.S. Titanic.

[Jeff Nielson is Senior Precious Metals Analyst for SilverGoldBull.com]

http://bullionbullscanada.com/silver...nd-gold-prices

[zawhmqswly]

about a month before he passed, i was conversing with bob chapman via email, and he told me not to sell until around $200 silver. fwiw. he also told me to buy cows if i could, said that beef prices will be sky high within 5 years. i ignored his cow advice, but i am holding for $200 silver.

[Liaiskelile]

about a month before he passed, i was conversing with bob chapman via email, and he told me not to sell until around $200 silver. fwiw. he also told me to buy cows if i could, said that beef prices will be sky high within 5 years. i ignored his cow advice, but i am holding for $200 silver.

If you have a way to feed, house, and breed them, then I would say Bob (RIP) was right about the cows.

200 Ag? I don't remember him ever saying that on a radio interview.

[zawhmqswly]

If you have a way to feed, house, and breed them, then I would say Bob (RIP) was right about the cows.

200 Ag? I don't remember him ever saying that on a radio interview.

i never heard him say it either, he was always sketchy with price predictions in interviews. i emailed and asked him if i should sell my ag around $100 and pay off my farm. he was quite emphatic that i not do it, as in his words "close to $200 is a sure thing before this is all over." then he wanted me to buy cows.

[myspauyijbv]

about a month before he passed, i was conversing with bob chapman via email, and he told me not to sell until around $200 silver. fwiw. he also told me to buy cows if i could, said that beef prices will be sky high within 5 years. i ignored his cow advice, but i am holding for $200 silver.

i followed his cow advice, sort of. learned how to butcher a cow by actually butchering one. cost me $50 for about 250+ pounds of boneless meat. got lucky on that one.

as for silver, $200 sounds like a good prediction. if it corresponded to a GSR of 25, that would correlate to $5000 gold.


when ? i think we will have some "failure's to deliver" because of the Cartel's "strong dollar policy", part of which is PM price manipulation.


some day when i get a chance, i would like to ask some phys. metal dealers why they allow the paper market to determine the physical price. i mean, why go along with the price determined by the Cartel's paper machinations ? why go along at all ?

[vasyasvc]

Put me down for $3200 and $125. I've stuck with $3200 since 2005. My original silver estimate was $75-$100.

[bumxumer]

Gold at $50K
Silver at $5k

Those are my exit points.

[Kilsimpaile]

I do not price metals in paper money, that is just silly. Instead I price things in metals themselves.

[vasyasvc]

I do not price metals in paper money, that is just silly. Instead I price things in metals themselves.

Please give us an example. For instance, how do you price a new television in metals?

[Uzezqelj]

Please give us an example. For instance, how do you price a new television in metals?

How much will you pay me to take it away?

[Carfanate]

i followed his cow advice, sort of. learned how to butcher a cow by actually butchering one. cost me $50 for about 250+ pounds of boneless meat. got lucky on that one.

as for silver, $200 sounds like a good prediction. if it corresponded to a GSR of 25, that would correlate to $5000 gold.


when ? i think we will have some "failure's to deliver" because of the Cartel's "strong dollar policy", part of which is PM price manipulation.


some day when i get a chance, i would like to ask some phys. metal dealers why they allow the paper market to determine the physical price. i mean, why go along with the price determined by the Cartel's paper machinations ? why go along at all ?

Cause they exist in a Digital Fiat world........ they really dont have plans to create a New Paradigm

If I had It would be a net buyer of Metals PERIOD and I would never sell just try in Leverage maybe 30% to further increase my holdings ( or some other strategy) before it was over I would be the Biggest owner of Physical Silver in America .

A Silver FT Knox on Steriods.

Most dealers dont have grand visons like that.

[Flerdourdyged]

Gold at $50K
Silver at $5k

Those are my exit points.

One problem with this is that, by the time those numbers were reached, hyperinflation would be moving so quickly that you'd have to cash out of pms, then the same day use the cash to buy goods. Would you come out ahead if instead you cashed out at $200 silver and bought goods then? It's hard to say.

[Carfanate]

One problem with this is that, by the time those numbers were reached, hyperinflation would be moving so quickly that you'd have to cash out of pms, then the same day use the cash to buy goods. Would you come out ahead if instead you cashed out at $200 silver and bought goods then? It's hard to say.

There will be a narrow ( and i do mean NARROW) window of time when PM's are going to skyrocket but all other assets classes are going to be dirt cheap. When Gold hits like 3200 buxx there is going to A unending chorus of naysayers telling you its gonna crash and burn and that will work for a time.

But when everybody realizes that 3200 Gold is not some fluke but is here to stay and is steadly climbing then everybody and their momma is gonna jump on the bandwagon to reprice their goods and services accordingdly.

THAT is when you are going to see everything going to hell in a handbasket expect to see manufacturing come to a grinding halt.

If you play your cards just right ..you can pick up scores of bells and whistles for a pittence. I would definately dubble down on tangibles ,survial gear, defense, hygenie and comfort items.

The Person that hold such items is posied to do quite well in the coming dark days


At least in theory.

[Kilsimpaile]

Please give us an example. For instance, how do you price a new television in metals?

The price tag says $500, but I see it as about 1/3 of an ounce of gold or 18 oz. silver.

[Liaiskelile]

The price tag says $500, but I see it as about 1/3 of an ounce of gold or 18 oz. silver.

I look at value. Is that teevee worth 1/3 oz Au or 18 oz Ag.

[zawhmqswly]

I look at value. Is that teevee worth 1/3 oz Au or 18 oz Ag.

scenarios like this illustrate for us just how underpriced metals are in term of fiat. would i pay $500 fiat for a tv? in 2 seconds. 18 ounces of ag? no waaaaaaaay.

[pupyississido]

I totally agree Twisted Avatar. I could have wrote that post myself.

As far as the OP goes, he's just preaching to the choir!

Chad - Interesting that he pushed you toward owning cattle. I can't do that where I am, that that's interesting. My family primarily eats wild game anyways, so no biggie, but still. That's indicative of SHTF imo..

[BamSaitinypap]

I am somewhat worried that we will never see prices go above $50. I mean, why is it there aren't any real shortages in supply? You'd think there would be shortages right now with these low prices, but I can still place orders on Apmex, Tulving, or wherever and get as much as I want pretty much. I'm losing faith in this whole "Silver to the moon" theory. The assumption is that the physical will run out and the price will go to the moon. There's plenty of intelligent billionaires out there, and beyond Sprott and Price, they don't seem to be buying.

Things are breaking down since people are so corrupted and dumbed down they are gravitating to the same failed ideas and policies that got them into this mess. Most of the controlling Elites even believe their own garbage now. Do we REALLY think these people are going to buy Gold and Silver? These idiots will continue watching American Idol and Dancing With the Stars while they have no food or water, and they will fucking die in their Lay-Z-Boy armchairs. I seriously think these people, the majority, are actual zombies and will NEVER wake up. I don't know if there's enough people who can buy physical Gold/Silver to take away control from the bankers.

The amount of retarded people far outweighs those of us who realize the fundamentals. I'm sure you all thought Silver would be about $100 by now before the smackdown last year, I know I did. I know some of this stuff is psychological warfare, but seriously, the bankers control the planet. They always have. Has there even been a time when they haven't?


I hope I'm wrong, but I'm just doubtful right now. We are all hoping for some event to happen in the future that will ideally make us wealthier. Just never forget that the BANKERS RUN THE PLANET. They set the rules, and can change them at ANY time. Even if Silver goes to $200, they can put in Capital Controls and do a VAT tax of 90%, effectively stealing any gains you may have had. After that they'll probably put you on a terrorist watch list after you sell your Gold/Silver and make you disappear in time since you are a threat to the control grid. These bankers will do anything and everything to maintain their power, don't put it past them that you can outsmart them and walk away a winner.

Keep in mind these are just thoughts. I believe strongly in challenging things I believe in in case things don't go the way I hope/think they will. Idiocracy isn't just a film, it's our future.

[zawhmqswly]

I am somewhat worried that we will never see prices go above $50. I mean, why is it there aren't any real shortages in supply? You'd think there would be shortages right now with these low prices, but I can still place orders on Apmex, Tulving, or wherever and get as much as I want pretty much. I'm losing faith in this whole "Silver to the moon" theory. The assumption is that the physical will run out and the price will go to the moon. There's plenty of intelligent billionaires out there, and beyond Sprott and Price, they don't seem to be buying.

Things are breaking down since people are so corrupted and dumbed down they are gravitating to the same failed ideas ans policies that got them into this mess. Most of the controlling Elites even believe their own garbage now. Do we REALLY think these people are going to buy Gold and Silver? These idiots will continue watching American Idol and Dancing With the Stars while they have no food or water, and they will fucking die in their Lay-Z-Boy armchairs. I seriously think these people, the majority, are actual zombies and will NEVER wake up. I don't know if there's enough people who can buy physical Gold/Silver to take away control from the bankers.

The amount of retarded people far outweighs those of us who realize the fundamentals. I'm sure you all thought Silver would be about $100 by now before the smackdown last year, I know I did. I know some of this stuff is psychological warfare, but seriously, the bankers control the planet. They always have. Has there even been a time when they haven't?


I hope I'm wrong, but I'm just doubtful right now. We are all hoping for some event to happen in the future that will ideally make us wealthier. Just never forget that the BANKERS RUN THE PLANET. They set the rules, and can change them at ANY time. Even if Silver goes to $200, they can put in Capital Controls and do a VAT tax of 90%, effectively stealing any gains you may have had. After that they'll probably put you on a terrorist watch list after you sell your Gold/Silver and make you disappear in time since you are a threat to the control grid. These bankers will do anything and everything to maintain their power, don't put it past them that you can outsmart them and walk away a winner.

Keep in mind these are just thoughts. I believe strongly in challenging things I believe in in case things don't go the way I hope/think they will.

i tend to agree with you. when you see the european economic model dying + the united states in it's current condition, you'd think silver would be much higher than $30. "just keep buying + holding, it'll go to the moon" doesn't make much sense to me anymore. keep holding for what, nuclear war? that it's under $30 an ounce when all of europe's banks are being downgraded + the euro is 2 steps away from imploding makes no sense whatsoever. i still own a ton of it, but i really don't expect much at this point.

[myspauyijbv]

I look at value. Is that teevee worth 1/3 oz Au or 18 oz Ag.

or, is that HP Intel quad-core laptop with the 17" non-glare (matte) screen worth 20 ounces of Silver ?

that's the nice thing about computers - the longer you wait, the lower the prices get.


if you are looking for a TV, i suggest checking the "demo's & returns" area at the local Walmart. i got a 42" Samsung 1080p monitor for $390 recently. it didn't have a stand, but that's no problem for me.

also, check out
http://www.logicbuy.com/

they scour the Internet looking for deals, and unlike a lot of "deal-finder" websites, most of the logicbuy deals are real.

if you're looking for a TV or computer thing.