[softy54534]

I want to start this thread on what people think will be Obamas failures and successes in the following 3 years of this administration's term. Foreign and domestic. Please include 1. topic/initiative, 2. Opinion (success or failure), 3. Reason for Opinion, and 4. Time frame to 'fruition'.

I'll start with my short list, and I'll limit it to foreign policy since I'm an Israeli and that is my primary concern (albeit I fear for the American public on the Socialism/Fascism that cometh).

Generally, I expect this "hope/yes we can" nonsense to peter out end of summer... er a few weeks. His ratings are plummeting as we speak. I expect an intense sobering on both domestic and foreign policy. I expect the classic break up syndrome emotions to set in both in the Administration and their voted for public- shock, denial, fear/anger, and finally acceptance. By the latter I mean regrouping and focusing on his "legacy". In this I'd say fully protectionist foreign policy, recoiling from all the failures (see below). Trying to salvage anything he can- and I'd say probably Obamacare.

1. Korea- Failure. I see the N. Koreans continuing to hedge their bets and pressing the Americans, and I see the Chinese manipulating the situation at times surrounding negotiations on their core interests- oil, trade, Taiwan, Tibet, and other minority issues in China. The heat will go up and down, in rapid succession, as it has but more so.. since economically they sense blood in the water. Time frame for the next "test" hhmm.. I'd say another 4 months. They will launch another test rocket, and the Japanese eventually will tell them to stick it. Inaction, BTW, will harm US-Nippon relations. I predict the Japanese going Nuclear (as in declaring their capability) at the end of the Obama administration. I also see them insisting on a SC permanent seat w/ Veto, to have parity with the Chinese. Since the US will no longer provide requisite support regionally.

2. Pakistan- Failure. I expect the collapse of the Pakistani state and a coalition invasion of the territories in the attempt to capture the loose Nukes- mostly by Russia, China, and Iran. I expect that to happen in 1.5. years. There is a non trivial chance that the Pakistanis will use their nuclear option to rally the country... in destroying it. India will be damaged severely in this situation, so they may actually preempt a nuclear strike.

3. The Israeli-Arab conflict. Failure. I expect the US to find exactly what everyone knows since Truman if not before that. You dont negotiate with Arabs. You tell them how it is and they either abide or start biting your ankles. Time frame, end of year.

4. Iraq. Complete and utter failure. I expect the US to pull out by next summer: when both AQI and more so the Iranians turn up the heat. There is also a non trivial chance that Turkey will invade a section (Kurdish area) and that all the Eastern Christians will be either ethnically cleansed 100% or massacred within a few years.

5. Iran. Failure of epic proportions. Once they go nuclear, there is now only one option on the table: containment. But the Americans cant and wont stand to be bled in Iraq or Afghanistan. Time frame: now.

6. Afghanistan. Failure. The collapse of Pakistan will worsen everything. It will be like early 80s Lebanon on a much larger scale. There will be massive consequences. Possibly with a dual Iranians/Russian Invasion to stabilize the area. The Saudis will pump massive capital to bleed Iran, as the latter will do with Iraq and Lebanon.

7. Lebanon. A non state in 4-5 years. Syria will retake the land and Israel will go to war with Syria most probably.

[LottiFurmann]

I just realized one make have more than one choice.. any remedy ideas (Newsguy? Medio?)

[NeroASERCH]

I agree with most of your predictions, but to be fair a lot of these failures are the result of Bush's policies. Obama is making things worse but he did inherit a lot of these problems. We also shouldn't forget that Bush did not make a move regarding the Iranian nuclear issue. That does not excuse Obama in any way. He is still willfully naive. I hope he sobers up soon.

Oh and I suppose I disagree with your #3 prediction. I foresee Obama still kissing up to Arabs and appeasing- excuse me- negotiating with them during the years he remains in office.

Edit - I think I also disagree with your #7. I see Lebanon remaining a non-functioning state although in even worse shape, Hezbollah (Iran) ruled with Syria retaking the country in everything but name. I don't see Syria planting their flag or sending in their army to occupy the country. Things are working out so much better for them the way it is now. They have their proxies and political stooges representing them, and are still able to bleed Lebanon's economy dry. They will also be able to keep Lebanon as a base for attacking Israel while denying any wrongdoing.

[HedgeYourBets]

No that I know of - vote more than once, I guess.

[Lt_Apple]

I disagree with most of your predictions.

1. Korea- Failure. I see the N. Koreans continuing to hedge their bets and pressing the Americans,

I am still not able to figure out what exactly they are trying to achieve. The recent tests were duds.

United Korea would be a nightmare to China. I am sure America is working on this.

and I see the Chinese manipulating the situation at times surrounding negotiations on their core interests- oil, trade, Taiwan, Tibet, and other minority issues in China. Taiwan, Tibet & Xinjiang issues will not be compromised by America.


I predict the Japanese going Nuclear (as in declaring their capability) at the end of the Obama administration. I also see them insisting on a SC permanent seat w/ Veto, to have parity with the Chinese. Since the US will no longer provide requisite support regionally. Japan comes under Americas Nuclear Umbrella so technically they don't have to go nuclear.

2. Pakistan- Failure. I expect the collapse of the Pakistani state and a coalition invasion of the territories in the attempt to capture the loose Nukes- mostly by Russia, China, and Iran. Blackwater is already operating in Pakistan...

I expect that to happen in 1.5. years. There is a non trivial chance that the Pakistanis will use their nuclear option to rally the country... in destroying it. India will be damaged severely in this situation, so they may actually preempt a nuclear strike. Last I read was there are 1000 marines working in Pakistan and America is constructing the biggest Embassy. It means Pakistan has sold its ass to America.


4. Iraq. Complete and utter failure. I disagree. America achieved in removing Saddam and pro Chinese people. Now there will be a pro-American government atleast for the next 10 years.

5. Iran. Failure of epic proportions. Once they go nuclear, there is now only one option on the table: containment. But the Americans cant and wont stand to be bled in Iraq or Afghanistan. Time frame: now. When it comes to Iran things get very complicated. It seems like Iran is a country where lot of countries are looking at their own benefit. So personally i think Iran will end with nukes and everyone will be a winner. Don't no about America but many other countries will benefit from Iran.

6. Afghanistan. Failure. Afghanistan will be America's baby. Don't forget to buy the Afghan shares in the future.

[radikal]

My two cents:

1) NK: The US and the rest of the world have already failed on NK, more especifically America failed in 2006 when NK carried its first nuclear test. No idea on how will everyone deal with this (this is a world problem right now).

2) Pakistan: I'm more optimistic on this, Obama will put pressure on the Taliban and will try to stabilize it. Though in the end it depends on the Pakistani gov't more than the US, and success is not guaranteed, but I don't think Obama will let any extremists to take over Pakistan's nukes (or take over Islamabad).

3) I-A conflict: I have no idea on how will Obama do on this. IMHO it depends a lot on Israel and the Arabs more than Obama... And let's face it, things in Israel or the WB & Gaza could change a lot in 2 years.

4) Iraq. Agree with you bararallu, but this is inherited from Bush. Also, at least for the Iraqis themselves, it might be good in the long term if Iraq is divided in 3 states, but I expect a bloodbath once America leaves. This and Iranian nukes have the potential of desestabilizing the whole region.

5) Iran: If their nuclear pogram has military purposes (and IMO it has military purposes, if it didn't they'd let the IAEA do its job and confirm that the program has civilian purposes only, but no one knows for sure yet), they will get their nukes, let's face it. Now I don't know how will the Arabs react to this (will they try to get their own nukes too?) and I don't know for sure if their foreign policy will turn to be more supportive of Hezbollah, Hamas and Shiite insurgency across the Middle East or even willing to take a direct military action... It will depend a lot on their internal support. I also don't know how will the rest of the world react on this, the NPT could potentially collapse if Iran gets nukes, especially if the Iranians don't leave it.

6) Afghanistan: I don't expect much change from the current situation.

7) Lebanon: No idea either, things could change rapidly just like in the I-A conflict. Though I doubt Syria (or Israel) will invade Lebanon, unless they (the militias up there or their Army) attack any of these countries (probably Israel), which is unlikely at least for this (and probably next) year.

[Lt_Apple]

Here is my logic on Syria:

First lets set the record straight. The Assads are friends with no one. Everyone hates them, even their own clan/family. Iranians detest them, so do the Saudis. Mubarak wants to kill them to the last man. In that spectrum, Israel and Israelis are actually fairly middle ground. Me- I think they need to go. Immediately if not sooner, but I digress. They are a puny minority and the last hallmark of minority driven Arab nationalism: Baath, fascism by any reasonable measure.

Now onto the conjecture. There is precedence for Syria to play the sides in Lebanon. There is precedence on how Syria uses assassinations to destabilize the country (actually a number of countries). There is precedence of how Syria plays the Sunnis and Shia off each other to their benefit. And lets agree on the objective: the Syrians want Lebanon back, and they IMO will take it.

I'll make just one scenario, we can have a dozen or more that will be comparable.

1. The Syrians assassinate a top ranking HA member maybe the arch cretin himself.
2. They will implicate (read frame) the Sunnis or the Christians. Probably the latter.
3. Whilst they do this they will feed weapons to the Palestinians and other Sunnis, w/o limiting the weapons to the HA.
4. That should spark:
a. full disintegration of the political status quo.
b. "" the so called Lebanese Army.
c. Start a bloody incident that they will feed with fuel. Arming and secretly promising help to both sides.
5. As the situation massively spirals out of control (civil war take 2) they will be "invited" perhaps at first as part of a coalition to stabilize the country.
6. They will then take pot shots at other coalition members until the latter just leave.
7. And they will do this all whilst pretending to be politically disinterested and concerned for their brother Arabs.
8. Oh and blame Israel too.

Why do you think Jumblatt jumped ship people? The writing is on the wall, he may be a rat but he is not stupid. He knows that the Americans, Europeans an Israelis don't have the minerals to do any immediate remediation when the Assad's wreck their country.

[Lt_Apple]

BTW, you guys dont have to react to my positions. Please feel free to generate your own list.

And Andak... the questions are as realistic as the ones Time Mag does every end of year. Broad questions on public opinion. If you dont think he will have any failures this term, then identify the upcoming successes. Thats worthy of discussion just as well. I'm negative on his overall ability and contribution- but I most definitely would entertain reasonable debate.

[Fegasderty]

1) NK: The US and the rest of the world have already failed on NK, more especifically America failed in 2006 when NK carried its first nuclear test. No idea on how will everyone deal with this (this is a world problem right now).

The tests were duds. There was no nuclear test. And North Korea has withdrawn from NPT she has the rights to do whatever it wants. And the world can only put sanctions on N.K which has already isolated North Korea from rest of the world.

The North Koreans Regime does not care about the people. They don't have any problem even if millions of people die from Hunger.

2) Pakistan: I'm more optimistic on this, Obama will put pressure on the Taliban and will try to stabilize it. Though in the end it depends on the Pakistani gov't more than the US, and success is not guaranteed, but I don't think Obama will let any extremists to take over Pakistan's nukes (or take over Islamabad). The problem here is there are two kinds of Taliban from the Pakistan Point of View - Good & Bad Taliban

Good Taliban - Are the Talibans who want to rule Afghanistan. This people are supported by Pakistan Army. Because they don't want to see a Indian presence in Afghanistan. Most of the Afghanistan leaders have studied in India and have strong ties with India.

Bad Taliban - Are the Taliban's who want to take control over Pakistan and carry out suicide attacks inside Pakistan.

So things are not that simple.

America is forcing Pakistani Army to Kill the Good Taliban's who have fled from Afghanistan to Pakistan. Its like asking the father to kill his son.

That's why our leaders had to bend in Egypt and started so called peace talks with Pakistan.


Iranian nukes have the potential of desestabilizing the whole region. I can say Israel having nukes destabilized the whole region....

[softy54534]

The tests were duds. There was no nuclear test. And North Korea has withdrawn from NPT she has the rights to do whatever it wants. And the world can only put sanctions on N.K which has already isolated North Korea from rest of the world.

The North Koreans Regime does not care about the people. They don't have any problem even if millions of people die from Hunger.

The NK withdrawal wasn't recognized by the rest of the world. Why? Because the NPT states that any member can withdraw only 90 days after it announces such an intention, back in the '90s NK announced it would withdraw from the NPT and they backtracked in the 89th day, then in 2003 they announced they were going to withdraw again and that given that 89 days had passed, the day after the announcement they'd consider themselves to have withdrawed from the NPT. Obviously no one buys such an argument...

Regarding the test, they announced they would do it 6 days before the actual test was done...

The problem here is there are two kinds of Taliban from the Pakistan Point of View - Good & Bad Taliban

Good Taliban - Are the Talibans who want to rule Afghanistan. This people are supported by Pakistan Army. Because they don't want to see a Indian presence in Afghanistan. Most of the Afghanistan leaders have studied in India and have strong ties with India.

Bad Taliban - Are the Taliban's who want to take control over Pakistan and carry out suicide attacks inside Pakistan.

So things are not that simple.

America is forcing Pakistani Army to Kill the Good Taliban's who have fled from Afghanistan to Pakistan. Its like asking the father to kill his son.

That's why our leaders had to bend in Egypt and started so called peace talks with Pakistan.

I'm personally worried about the bad Taliban, and I'm sure Obama is worried about them as well... And that's precisely what I'm talking about, I doubt the Americans will let the bad Taliban take over the Pakistani nukes.

I can say Israel having nukes destabilized the whole region....

You mean its neighbourhood? Maybe it did (I'd say the Six Day War desestabilized Israel's neighbours, not its nuclear program back then ). But the Middle East is bigger than that, and given Iran's geographic location and anti-Israel rethoric, if they get nukes suck a thing will cause inestability across the whole ME, not just the Levant.

[Paul Bunyan]

The NK withdrawal wasn't recognized by the rest of the world. Why? Because the NPT states that any member can withdraw only 90 days after it announces such an intention, back in the '90s NK announced it would withdraw from the NPT and they backtracked in the 89th day, then in 2003 they announced they were going to withdraw again and that given that 89 days had passed, the day after the announcement they'd consider themselves to have withdrawed from the NPT. Obviously no one buys such an argument...

What? Seriously what are you trying to say ?

Regarding the test, they announced they would do it 6 days before the actual test was done...
The North Korean nuclear test: What the seismic data says | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists


I'm personally worried about the bad Taliban, and I'm sure Obama is worried about them as well... And that's precisely what I'm talking about, I doubt the Americans will let the bad Taliban take over the Pakistani nukes. Blackwater & 1000 marines do they ring any bell.

You mean its neighbourhood? Maybe it did (I'd say the Six Day War desestabilized Israel's neighbours, not its nuclear program back then ). But the Middle East is bigger than that, and given Iran's geographic location and anti-Israel rethoric, if they get nukes suck a thing will cause inestability across the whole ME, not just the Levant. So Iran does not have the right to save itself from Israel ?

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I don't know how your presidents look at domestic issues but i am 100% sure when it comes to foreign policy all are same and they follow the same pattern.

[PhillipHer]

bararallu, I agree with most of your points. As predicted, Obama's lack of experience and qualifications is now costing this country dearly in the foreign relations arena. Every time Obama shows up to a meeting with another head of state, he seems so outmatched, it's embarrassing to think that Obama represents our country.

North Korea continues to arm itself and prepare missiles capable of hitting the US, and has directly threatened us with war, Russia sells Iran nuclear materials and advanced weapons, Pakistan is a step away from having its nuclear weapons owned by al Qaeda, we're losing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, with no end in sight. Lebanon is pretty much an Iranian satellite state, and Hezbullah is preparing to take over its government and start yet another large-scale war which will end in destruction not yet seen in the Middle East.

Yet, Obama does nothing to stop any of that, because he's too busy transferring wealth from hard-working Americans to illegal invaders and the perpetual welfare class.

What does Obama care about regional wars or nuclear rogue states? Or anything that a competent head of state would normally be concerned with? The main thing is to rob the American taxpayer until there are no more successful Americans left, and at the same time plunge the country into a debt that will bankrupt us all. That's Obama's entire presidency in a nutshell.

So far, Obama's foreign policy amounts to "ignore them, and the problem will go away." You decide if that's been effective so far.

[Slonopotam845]

North Korea continues to arm itself and prepare missiles capable of hitting the US, and has directly threatened us with war,

I don't know what papers you read. But stop reading or watching those reports immediately.

Pakistan is a step away from having its nuclear weapons owned by al Qaeda, Don't be surprised if you read Al Queda was supported by America after 20 years.

we're losing the wars in Iran and Afghanistan, with no end in sight. Another piece of shit your media reports.

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I don't blame you guys. American media is that powerful and totally controlled by Pentagon....