[softy54534]

I want to start this thread on what people think will be Obamas failures and successes in the following 3 years of this administration's term. Foreign and domestic. Please include 1. topic/initiative, 2. Opinion (success or failure), 3. Reason for Opinion, and 4. Time frame to 'fruition'.

I'll start with my short list, and I'll limit it to foreign policy since I'm an Israeli and that is my primary concern (albeit I fear for the American public on the Socialism/Fascism that cometh).

Generally, I expect this "hope/yes we can" nonsense to peter out end of summer... er a few weeks. His ratings are plummeting as we speak. I expect an intense sobering on both domestic and foreign policy. I expect the classic break up syndrome emotions to set in both in the Administration and their voted for public- shock, denial, fear/anger, and finally acceptance. By the latter I mean regrouping and focusing on his "legacy". In this I'd say fully protectionist foreign policy, recoiling from all the failures (see below). Trying to salvage anything he can- and I'd say probably Obamacare.

1. Korea- Failure. I see the N. Koreans continuing to hedge their bets and pressing the Americans, and I see the Chinese manipulating the situation at times surrounding negotiations on their core interests- oil, trade, Taiwan, Tibet, and other minority issues in China. The heat will go up and down, in rapid succession, as it has but more so.. since economically they sense blood in the water. Time frame for the next "test" hhmm.. I'd say another 4 months. They will launch another test rocket, and the Japanese eventually will tell them to stick it. Inaction, BTW, will harm US-Nippon relations. I predict the Japanese going Nuclear (as in declaring their capability) at the end of the Obama administration. I also see them insisting on a SC permanent seat w/ Veto, to have parity with the Chinese. Since the US will no longer provide requisite support regionally.

2. Pakistan- Failure. I expect the collapse of the Pakistani state and a coalition invasion of the territories in the attempt to capture the loose Nukes- mostly by Russia, China, and Iran. I expect that to happen in 1.5. years. There is a non trivial chance that the Pakistanis will use their nuclear option to rally the country... in destroying it. India will be damaged severely in this situation, so they may actually preempt a nuclear strike.

3. The Israeli-Arab conflict. Failure. I expect the US to find exactly what everyone knows since Truman if not before that. You dont negotiate with Arabs. You tell them how it is and they either abide or start biting your ankles. Time frame, end of year.

4. Iraq. Complete and utter failure. I expect the US to pull out by next summer: when both AQI and more so the Iranians turn up the heat. There is also a non trivial chance that Turkey will invade a section (Kurdish area) and that all the Eastern Christians will be either ethnically cleansed 100% or massacred within a few years.

5. Iran. Failure of epic proportions. Once they go nuclear, there is now only one option on the table: containment. But the Americans cant and wont stand to be bled in Iraq or Afghanistan. Time frame: now.

6. Afghanistan. Failure. The collapse of Pakistan will worsen everything. It will be like early 80s Lebanon on a much larger scale. There will be massive consequences. Possibly with a dual Iranians/Russian Invasion to stabilize the area. The Saudis will pump massive capital to bleed Iran, as the latter will do with Iraq and Lebanon.

7. Lebanon. A non state in 4-5 years. Syria will retake the land and Israel will go to war with Syria most probably.