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Documents reveal U.S. would not have accepted preemptive strike in '73 Documents reveal U.S. would not have accepted preemptive strike in '73
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 26 September 2009


Haaretz correspondent Amir Oren revealed in an article titled "Conceptual Matter" in the 25 September Hebrew edition (the item is not as of this time available in English) that American intelligence, up to the day that Egypt and Syria invaded Israel on October 6, 1973 was certain that the Arabs would not attack Israel.

The article can be found in Hebrew at:
http://www.haaretz.co.il/hasite/spages/1116755.html

Oren quotes from a report prepared by U.S. General Daniel Graham shortly after the war that studied the failure of American intelligence to predict the outbreak of the war. A similar study was carried out in Israel by the Agranat Committee. It turns out that Graham identified the problem that
intelligence analysts failed to properly interpret information because of their blind adherence to a "concept" well before the "concept" problem was identified by the Agranat Committee.

Among the examples cited by Graham:
3 October 1973 DIA report: "The movement of forces in Syria and the military preparations in Egypt are considered a coincidence and are not planned to lead to a large attack."

6 October, 1973 CIA report: "There is increased mutual concern on the part of Israel and the Arab states regarding the military activity of the other side, but it appears that neither side intends to carry out an attack.

From the Egyptian standpoint, there is no great logic in a military initiative. It is almost certain that an additional round will demolish Sadat's efforts to advance the economy. Assad is generally careful, a military adventure now would be suicidal, from his standpoint, and he himself says so."

In July 1973 a joint report by the CIA, DIA and the State Department concluded that the "Egyptian ground forces are not prepared to cross the canal in a large scale operation", and that the supply of SAM 6 ground to air missiles "did not significantly increase the military strength of Syria."

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=45883